Can Baydarol
The week we are currently going through has been extremely eventful, and it is inevitable that it will continue to be so. By the time you read these lines on the last day of the week, Iran and the US will most likely be sitting down at the negotiating table in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for the first time in years. We do not know whether anything will come of these talks. Without delving into the uncertainties, let us first return to that exciting Wednesday night and the events leading up to it to try and make sense of what happened.
As I have mentioned in my previous articles, US President Trump, in his quest to extricate himself from the quagmire he has found himself in regarding Iran, was set to fire his final salvo—which some might call ingenious, whilst others (myself included) would deem it foolish. The deadline for the ultimatum—“I’m giving you one last chance; if you comply, you comply; if you don’t, I’ll wipe out Iranian civilisation never to return!”—was set to expire at 03:00 on Wednesday morning, Turkish time. Consequently, just like the rest of the world, we all found ourselves fixated on 03:00, waiting for the news. Leaving aside the phrase about the annihilation of a civilisation, we also began to ask ourselves how such a civilisation could be destroyed. Naturally, the nuclear threat—which we were all afraid to voice aloud—crossed our minds.
The news that arrived before the deadline relieved us all. The parties had reached an agreement on a ceasefire for at least 15 days and had agreed to negotiate the terms of peace during that period. At least I, who could no longer endure any more sleeplessness, surrendered myself to a state of sleep that could hardly be called peaceful.
The main source of unease stemmed from ceasefire scenarios witnessed in other wars. Warring parties rarely sit down at the table with genuine intentions of peace; they generally seek to use this process to catch their breath and regroup their forces in preparation for resuming hostilities. Furthermore, during this period, the parties would declare themselves victorious and proceed to victory celebrations without delay.
In this context, whilst the Iranian side announced that the 10-point peace conditions they had drafted had been accepted by the US and proceeded to street celebrations, the US side would witness Trump’s victory cries declaring that the 15-point conditions they had essentially drafted had been accepted by Iran. In fact, what transpired can be summarised in two main points. The primary condition for sitting at the negotiating table was the opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. The second point of agreement was not the unconditional acceptance of either the 10-point or the 15-point list, but merely the acceptance that negotiations could take place regarding these points. In other words, if peace negotiations do indeed lead to an agreement as hoped, it is far too early to say who has gained or lost what without seeing the final text.
Naturally, there is a third party that must not be overlooked in this scenario: Israel, which sees no issue in using the US as its proxy and which views Trump’s reluctance to bring an end to Iranian civilisation with regret. The Netanyahu government wasted no time in listing its objections one after another and, declaring that the ceasefire did not include Lebanon, carried out the harshest intervention in history against Lebanon.
Under all these conditions, the place the world has its eyes fixed on is undoubtedly the Strait of Hormuz.
The potential for Iran’s blocking of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to plunge the global economy into crisis has become abundantly clear over the past few weeks. The establishment of a new status quo in the Strait, and the role Iran (including Oman) would play in this framework—whether alongside the US or without it—is one of the key issues at stake. Indeed, Iran’s collection of a substantial fee per vessel passing through the Strait (the figure of $2 million per vessel has been repeatedly mentioned), the lifting of sanctions against Iran, and the release of frozen assets could more than compensate for the war reparations Iran is expecting.
Naturally, there is also the matter of lifting the oil and natural gas sanctions on Iran. In this scenario, Iran would sell its oil and natural gas at normal market prices, thereby preventing China from accessing cheap Iranian energy from the US perspective. If, moreover, the extraction and marketing of this oil and natural gas were left to US companies, the money-hungry Trump would have realised all his ambitions.
If such an agreement were to be reached, would the puzzle be solved? I do not know. For some reason, I find it hard to believe that the Israeli factor will remain quiet.
With hopes for peaceful, stable days…
To address the issue of Turkey depending on the course of the negotiations…