Levent Gürses
The war in Iran is dragging on, with no ceasefire agreement reached. The major energy crisis looks set to intensify… Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said, “We are facing a crisis greater than the sum of all previous energy crises.” As tensions in the Strait of Hormuz rose, oil prices climbed back above $100, whilst gold lost value, dropping to $4,675 per ounce.
On the Turkish front, whilst there has been a sharp drop in exports, a warning has been issued that at least 2,330 companies will go bankrupt due to the war. Meanwhile, we celebrated 23 April, yet four out of every ten children live in poverty and children are going to school hungry.
The latest developments regarding the war are as follows:
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, whilst the US has blockaded the entrance to the strait, refusing to allow entry or exit in order to damage the Iranian economy and cut off the flow of oil and natural gas to China. Last week, Iran announced it had opened the Strait of Hormuz for a single day; however, after the US failed to lift the blockade, it closed it again. A ceasefire negotiation table could not be established in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for the second round of talks. US President Donald Trump announced that he had temporarily extended the ceasefire with Iran and that the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would also be extended by three weeks.
However, it is reported that Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran is not indefinite, and that the US could resume air strikes if Tehran fails to return to negotiations. Furthermore, the Pentagon is keeping alternative operational plans ready regarding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s military capabilities.
In light of all these developments, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol issued another warning. Pointing to the losses caused by the war, he said, “We are facing a crisis greater than the sum of all previous energy crises.” Birol noted that 84 energy facilities had been damaged in the attacks, with 34 of them suffering “serious and very serious damage”, “Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to be opened immediately in a manner that is both secure and convincing to all, it would be overly optimistic to expect oil and natural gas supplies to return to pre-war levels. It could take at least two years for production at these facilities to return to normal levels, and for some, this process could take longer than two years.”
Key developments from last week are as follows:
The Strait of Hormuz is in turmoil, oil prices are rising again; above the $100 mark
Oil prices continue to rise due to the failure to reach a peace agreement between the US and Iran and the resurgence of shipping issues in the Gulf. As of Friday morning, 24 April, Brent crude futures were trading above $105 per barrel, heading towards a weekly increase of approximately 17 per cent as the deadlock in US-Iran peace talks and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude had fallen to as low as $86 last week following Iran’s announcement that it had reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump’s posts on “Truth Social” and his decision to maintain the naval blockade of Iranian ports have made the prospect of renewed talks with Tehran more difficult. In a post on Thursday, Trump stated that he had ordered the US Navy to “strike and destroy” ships laying mines in the Strait, whilst US forces also seized a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, whilst Washington awaits a new official proposal from Tehran, the US-Iran ceasefire has been extended indefinitely; the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has also been extended for a further three weeks. Following the ceasefire decisions, the price of a barrel of oil had briefly fallen below $100.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the absence of further attacks could take “several months” for crude oil production in the Persian Gulf to recover significantly. The bank forecasts that production could fall by approximately 14.5 million barrels per day in April, representing a decline of over 50 per cent.
IEA Director Birol: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a major energy security risk
IEA Director Fatih Birol stated that the closure of the Strait poses a major energy security risk for the global economy, which exceeds $110 trillion in size, and noted that all countries have begun to consider plans regarding what can be done in the short and medium term.
Birol noted that they had long drawn attention to the fact that the world economy’s reliance on such a narrow strait was “not sensible”, and warned that the economy could be paralysed if the Strait of Hormuz were to close.
Providing information that there is a daily loss of 13 million barrels of crude oil in the short term, Birol continued:
“When we consider that the world’s daily oil demand stands at 100 million barrels, 13 million barrels is a significant loss. There is also a loss of around 100 billion cubic metres in natural gas supply. “Looking at both together, we are facing a crisis larger than the sum of all previous energy crises. This is not merely an oil and gas crisis; it is also a difficult situation regarding certain commodities of vital importance to the global economy. There is a major problem concerning commodities critical to supply chains, such as fertilisers, sulphur, helium and petrochemical products.”
200 oil and 10 LNG tankers are waiting for the Strait to open
Birol stated that there are currently over 200 crude oil and petroleum product tankers, along with 10 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are currently waiting in the Gulf region.
Birol stated that once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, this supply will enter the market and some relief may be seen, adding, “However, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately in a safe and convincing manner, it would be overly optimistic to expect oil and natural gas supplies to return to pre-war levels.
“Our most up-to-date data shows that 84 energy facilities, including oil and gas fields, refineries and LNG terminals, are currently damaged. Of these, 34 have sustained serious or very serious damage. It could take at least two years for production at these facilities to return to normal levels; for some, this process may take longer than two years,” he said.
“There are several alternatives for Turkey”
Noting that the war has accelerated the search for alternatives across all countries, and that alternative oil and gas routes, technologies, fuels and energy partners will come to the fore, Birol said, “In this context, there are several alternatives before Turkey. One of the alternative projects Turkey should consider is a pipeline between Basra and Ceyhan and the further development of the existing pipeline. Another could be the further expansion of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. ” he said.
Birol emphasised that projects likely to come to the fore during this period must be established on a solid political, financial and legal footing, stating, “Many projects will be in competition with one another. But our country’s advantage is the possibility of transporting the oil and gas coming to Turkey to both the Mediterranean and Europe. This is a very significant advantage.”
War shock in Europe signals recession: first in 16 months
With rising energy prices putting pressure on growth, economic activity across the Eurozone unexpectedly slipped back into contraction territory in April. The S&P Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures private sector activity, fell to 48.6 points in April, dropping below the critical 50-point threshold. Consequently, the index fell below the growth-contraction threshold for the first time in 16 months.
S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that rapidly rising prices, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, have led to “the largest increase in cost pressures recorded since 2000”, excluding the Covid-19 pandemic period.
- Rowe Price economist Tomasz Wieladek said the survey data clearly pointed to a “stagflation zone” where high inflation and weak growth coexist. Wieladek noted that the rapid deterioration in confidence indicators would heighten concerns that the Eurozone economy “may even be sliding towards recession”.
“The war will result in a loss of at least 1 billion barrels of oil”
Russell Hardy, CEO of global commodities trading firm Vitol, said the war in Iran would result in a loss of at least 1 billion barrels of oil.
Hardy stated that the war in Iran had caused a loss of 600 to 700 million barrels in global oil supply, and that this figure would reach at least 1 billion barrels of oil by the time markets recover following the war. Hardy stated that the supply crisis arising from the war in Iran has resulted in a daily loss of 12 million barrels of hydrocarbon supply, whilst oil demand has fallen by 4 million barrels per day. Hardy also noted that 300 to 400 million barrels of fuel stocks would be utilised due to the war.
The opening and closing of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted the balance of gold
Gold, which rose above $4,850 per ounce on the last trading day of the week (17 April) following Iran’s brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, began to fall again as the energy transit route closed, signals of a ceasefire diminished and tensions escalated. On the morning of Friday 24 April, the price of gold was trading at $4,695 per ounce. This represents a 3 per cent loss for the week. Consequently, it has lost 10.5 per cent of its value since the start of the war.
The US-Iran conflict in the Middle East, now entering its eighth week, has caused sharp fluctuations in gold prices, which are viewed as a safe haven in the markets. The price of gold, which stood at $5,247 per ounce before the war began, initially rose to a peak of $5,434 due to the impact of the hostilities. However, as selling pressure increased, it subsequently fell to a low of $4,124.
Morgan Stanley has also lost hope and hit the brakes
US-based Morgan Stanley has lowered its 2026 forecast for gold to $5,200 per ounce from $5,700. Despite this revision following the sharp sell-off in recent weeks, the bank emphasised that there is still upside potential relative to current levels.
The sharp sell-off over the past six weeks emerged as the key factor behind this decision. According to the bank, central bank demand, concerns over the depreciation of global currencies and geopolitical risks continue to support gold prices.
Three main factors were decisive in the pullback in gold prices. These were listed as: a slowdown in central bank gold purchases, a strong outflow of funds from ETFs, and an acceleration in selling following the breach of technical levels.
As the crisis deepens, the wave of bankruptcies will grow; 2,330 companies are on the list this year
A difficult period lies ahead for companies due to the war in the Middle East. The construction, retail and services sectors are at risk. Inflation and unemployment will rise further. According to a report by Şehriban Kıraç in Nefes newspaper, a report by trade credit insurer Allianz Trade containing bankruptcy forecasts for 2026 states that the war in the Middle East during the 2026–2027 period will lead to the bankruptcy of approximately 15,000 additional companies globally. Consequently, global corporate bankruptcies will rise by 6 per cent this year. This will mark the fifth consecutive year of rising bankruptcies. Whilst 2,131 firms went bankrupt in Turkey last year, the figure is set to rise to 2,330 this year, an increase of 9 per cent.
According to Allianz Trade, bankruptcies in Turkey will rise by 9 per cent, exceeding the global average. The organisation states that in 2025, the number of firms going bankrupt in Turkey reached 2,131, a 57 per cent increase compared to the previous year. By 2027 , this figure will stand at 2,120. Bankruptcies in Turkey are expected to rise by 12 per cent between 2016 and 2026. According to the report, Turkey ranks as the sixth country among 45 nations where bankruptcies are set to rise the most this year.
2.2 million jobs at risk
Under a scenario of a 6 per cent increase in global corporate bankruptcies by 2026, Allianz Trade estimates that the number of jobs directly at risk will rise by 94,000 to reach 2.2 million. The construction, retail and services sectors will be the areas most at risk. “Employment at risk due to corporate bankruptcies accounts for 6 per cent of the total number of unemployed in the US and Europe,” he said.
War hits exports, with a 22% decline, particularly in Istanbul
The Ministry of Trade has shared export figures for the January-March 2026 period with the public. According to the data, Turkey’s exports fell by 3.1 per cent compared to the same period last year, remaining at $63.279 billion. The Ministry attributed the decline primarily to the war triggered by US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the “calendar effect”.
According to the Ministry of Trade data, a massive decline was recorded in Istanbul, the country’s top exporting city. Istanbul, which exported 4 billion 876 million dollars in March 2025, recorded only 3 billion 816 million dollars in the same month of 2026. The decline was calculated at 21.7 per cent. The decline in the country’s leading cities for production and exports drew attention. The export performance of the top three cities was as follows:
- Istanbul: A 21.7 per cent annual decline, with exports of 3 billion 816 million dollars.
- Kocaeli: A 1.6 per cent annual decline, with exports of 3 billion 159 million dollars.
- Izmir: A 4.5 per cent annual decline, with exports of 2 billion 8 million dollars.
Central Bank keeps interest rate unchanged; 37%
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey kept the one-week repo auction rate, which serves as the policy rate, unchanged at 37%. The Committee also decided to keep the overnight lending rate at 40% and the overnight borrowing rate at 35.5%. The MPC statement noted: “In the event of a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook, influenced by recent developments, the monetary policy stance will be tightened.”
The Central Bank’s decision statement highlighted “potential effects on inflation and secondary effects”, expressing concern that global energy and other commodity prices could trigger a surge in inflation.
Prof. Dr. Kozanoğlu: The Central Bank’s fear of stagflation
Prof. Dr. Hayri Kozanoğlu, a columnist for Birgün newspaper, wrote in his article regarding the Central Bank’s interest rate decision: “The inclusion of the sentence ‘The Council has emphasised its cautious stance against upward risks to inflation’ in the policy statement could also be interpreted as meaning that the option of a rate hike was on the table but not chosen (or that approval for this move could not be obtained ‘from above’). In fact, in the second paragraph of the press release, ‘The main trend is expected to rise somewhat this April’ – this phrase signals inflation concerns, whilst the subsequent emphasis that ‘indicators point to a slowdown in economic activity’ suggests fears of a recession. As is well known, the phenomenon of inflation and recession occurring simultaneously is referred to as ‘stagflation’,” he said.
Bürümcekçi: A signal that the current stance will be maintained for some time
Economist Haluk Bürümcekçi stated, “By adding the phrase ‘emphasising its cautious stance against upward risks to inflation’ to the main message regarding its monetary policy stance, the CBRT has signalled that the current stance will be maintained for some time” he said.
Noting that the second Inflation Report of the year will be published on 14 May, that there is no Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in May, and that the next meeting will take place on 11 June, Bürümcekçi said it could be expected that the CBRT, by classifying the war as an extraordinary development, would significantly revise its interim inflation target and forecast range. Bürümcekçi noted that with the resumption of foreign exchange purchases following the ceasefire, excess liquidity has begun to build up again.
Nazlıaka: 4 out of 10 children are living in poverty and going to school hungry
CHP MP Aylin Nazlıaka, in a statement regarding 23 April National Sovereignty and Children’s Day, said: “Today, in Turkey, 4 out of every 10 children face the threat of poverty and exclusion. Moreover, this is a figure from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). Children are going to school hungry. They go hungry at school. And they cannot access clean water. According to the ISIG Council, an average of 60–70 of our children have fallen victim to workplace fatalities every year since 2013. Protecting children means protecting the nation,” she said.
Nazlıaka, pointing out that the government is failing to protect children, said, “Today, in Turkey, 4 out of every 10 children are under the threat of poverty and exclusion. And this is the TÜİK figure. You can guess the real figure yourselves. In terms of child poverty, we rank second among OECD countries after Costa Rica. What did the government say before the 2023 elections? ‘We will provide free meals for children.’ But the election took place. They announced they would not provide them. What was the excuse? ‘We have no budget,’ they said. You see, when it comes to waste, there is a budget. When it comes to the arbitrary, luxury spending of certain state representatives, there is a budget. When interest rates are involved, there is a budget. But when it comes to children, we have no budget, is that it? Free meals in schools are not a matter of choice. It is a necessity of being a welfare state,” he said.
“Poverty is taking the harshest toll on children’s lives”
Yalçın Karatepe, a writer for Birgün, in his article titled “Child Poverty,” written to mark 23 April, stated: “According to 2025 data, there are 21 million 375 thousand children in Turkey. That means one in every four people in this country is a child. And 36.8 per cent of these children are living at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Nearly four out of every ten children. This is a social alarm in itself. Moreover, whilst this rate stands at 27.9 per cent of the total population, the situation is far more difficult among children. “This means that poverty is not distributed randomly in this country; it falls hardest on children’s lives,” he said.
Karatepe, noting that child poverty is not merely a social issue but a straightforward class-based outcome, stated: “Because in every period where wages are suppressed, public spending is cut, and social protection is weakened, the heaviest burden is borne by the most vulnerable groups. Children are at the very top of that list. Educational data also reveals how the implemented policies are affecting children’s lives. The secondary school completion rate stands at 81.3 per cent. In other words, one in five young people fails to complete secondary school. The fact that the completion rate for boys has dropped as low as 79.2 per cent is an indication that they are being forced into child labour due to financial hardship. “This system is not only robbing children of their present, but also their future,” he wrote.
CHP asked: Between 2023 and 2026, how many children lost their lives in workplace accidents, and how many were injured?
CHP Deputy Chairman Ulaş Karasu brought the impact of the economic crisis on children to the agenda of the Turkish Grand National Assembly through a parliamentary question. Karasu asked Labour and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan: “Given the deepening economic crisis, rising poverty, and data on disengagement from education, has an additional action plan been prepared to prevent child labour? “Between 2023 and 2026, how many children have lost their lives in workplace accidents, and how many have been injured?”
Noting that, despite Turkey being a signatory to international conventions, children are not adequately protected by the state due to insufficient oversight and informal employment, Karasu included statistics on children in his parliamentary question.
He highlighted that one in three children in Turkey faces the risk of poverty or social exclusion, and according to the latest figures released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), Karasu emphasised that 36.8 per cent of children will be living under the risk of poverty or social exclusion by 2025. He highlighted that the school enrolment rate for children under five has fallen compared to the previous year, that the school completion rate at secondary level stands at 81.3 per cent, and that the economic crisis is driving children away from school and into work.
Yeni Şafak criticised Şimşek again: “The prescription didn’t work, the programme has collapsed.”
The pro-government Yeni Şafak newspaper wrote that the government’s “austerity” programme, carried out under the guise of fighting inflation, had failed; it declared that the economic measures implemented had paralysed the markets and collapsed.
The pro-government Yeni Şafak newspaper, which once again targeted Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, ran the headline “Şimşek’s anti-inflation programme has collapsed” at the start of the week. Yeni Şafak had previously published reports targeting Şimşek and Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan. This report by Yeni Şafak brought to mind the operation carried out against Central Bank Governor Naci Ağbal in 2021.
Yeni Şafak, a pro-government newspaper that has long stood out for its critical tone towards Minister Mehmet Şimşek, particularly regarding the Medium-Term Programme (OVP) and interest rates, stated in the report that Şimşek’s announced inflation target of 8.5 per cent for 2026 would, at best, remain at 29 per cent, noting that there was “significant deviation” between the target and the actual outcome.
The report included statements that the high-interest-rate policy was stifling production and investment, yet was ineffective in reducing inflation. It also highlighted that the implemented economic programme was harming the real sector and that the country was drifting further away from its targets.
“Thousands of factories have closed, and more are continuing to close”
Key points from the report are as follows: “A significant gap has emerged between the inflation target set in the first medium-term programme announced following the policy changes in the economy in June 2023 and the actual figures. Şimşek pledged to reduce inflation to 8.5 per cent by 2026. However, inflation in 2026 is projected to reach 29 per cent at best. This means there has been a deviation of 350 per cent between the target and the actual figure.
“According to the medium-term programme announced in September 2023 , inflation was set to be reduced to 65 per cent in 2023, 33 per cent in 2024, 15 per cent in 2025 and 8.5 per cent in 2026. To meet these targets, interest rates were raised from 8.5 per cent to 50 per cent.”
“Mehmet Şimşek’s high-interest-rate policy is failing to bring down inflation whilst dealing a severe blow to the real sector. Thousands of firms have filed for bankruptcy, and thousands of factories have either closed down or are operating at a loss. As profitability in the manufacturing sector declines rapidly, funds that would otherwise go towards investment are being channelled into interest-bearing accounts due to high yields.”
Mehmet Şimşek’s comment on the fight against inflation: “The ‘let’s pause’ approach is short-sighted.”
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, commenting on the fight against inflation, responded to the criticism. Şimşek said, “There are views that say, ‘We’ve done enough to fight this inflation; let’s stop now.’ This is a very short-sighted approach. Because the formula for lasting, sustainable high growth is, of course, low inflation.” Defending the Medium-Term Programme (MTP) as effective and delivering results, Şimşek remarked, “This programme is not solely about monetary policy, fiscal policy, or revenue policy. To say otherwise is to reject that document, or to imply one has not read or examined it.”
S&P: Improvement in inflation is a prerequisite for a credit rating upgrade
S&P Global Ratings confirmed Turkey’s credit rating at “BB-/B” with a “stable” outlook. The agency highlighted the energy price shock and the trend in reserves as critical risks, whilst noting that an upgrade would require improvements in inflation and confidence.
The statement noted that maintaining the “stable” outlook reflects the assessment that the Turkish economy will weather the ongoing energy price shock, provided that authorities continue their tight monetary and wage-setting policies and prevent further depletion of foreign exchange reserves. Whilst it was noted that global energy prices remaining high for a longer period poses a risk to these assumptions, it was reported that the credit rating could be upgraded if a recovery in Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves is achieved, long-term confidence in the Turkish lira is re-established, and further progress is made in bringing inflation down to single-digit levels.
İş Bankası General Manager Hakan Aran first criticised then backtracked
“This programme is not one that benefits SMEs, industrialists or businesspeople,” said İş Bankası General Manager Hakan Aran, criticising Şimşek’s programme; he later expressed his regrets and, in a sense, apologised.
İş Bankası General Manager Hakan Aran said, “This programme is not one that benefits SMEs, industrialists or businesspeople. This programme is actually focused on refilling the state coffers and restoring the economic balances that have been disrupted… “Apart from seeing out the year, exiting this economic programme and moving to a new one, there seems to be no room for respite or hope. The current economic climate does not allow for the implementation of such a programme in the fight against inflation… Inflation is now inevitable and will remain high worldwide,” he had said.
Later, appearing on a television programme, Aran, referring to these remarks, said of Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan: “I am deeply sorry for having upset and worn them down. I wish to express this regret. Neither of them deserves this. Both are perhaps working harder than anyone else in this country for the success of this programme. “To be unfair to these people would be unjust,” he said.
Although capacity utilisation has risen slightly, production lines remain idle in many sectors
The Central Bank has published the manufacturing sector capacity utilisation data for April. The seasonally unadjusted capacity utilisation rate rose by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching just 73. 8 per cent. Production lines were still unable to operate at full capacity in April. The lowest capacity utilisation rates were observed in the leather sector at 59.7 per cent, the beverages sector at 62.9 per cent, and the machinery and equipment sector at 65.3 per cent. Capacity utilisation in consumer goods fell to 71.5 per cent, whilst the rate for durable consumer goods stood at 68.9 per cent.
The Real Sector Confidence Index fell by 1.4 points in April
The Central Bank announced the Economic Trends Statistics and the Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE); the Real Sector Confidence Index fell by 1.4 points in April to 98.6. The seasonally unadjusted RKGE fell by 0.4 points compared to the previous month, standing at 100.6. This figure is the lowest in the last seven months since September 2025.
When examining the diffusion indices associated with the survey questions comprising the index, assessments regarding fixed capital investment expenditure and the current total order volume had a positive impact on the index; while assessments regarding the total order volume over the past three months, the general trend, export order volume over the next three months, production volume over the next three months, current finished goods stock and total employment over the next three months had a downward effect on the index.
Limited rise in consumer confidence
The Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) has released the consumer confidence index data for April. The consumer confidence index rose by 0.5 per cent month-on-month in April to 85.5. The index of households’ current financial situation fell by 1.4 per cent month-on-month in April, dropping from 72.8 to 71.8. The index of expectations regarding the household’s financial situation over the next 12 months rose by 2.1 per cent in April to 87.5, up from 85.6 in March. The index of expectations regarding the general economic situation over the next 12 months, which stood at 79.1 last month, was calculated at 78.3 this month, a decrease of 0.9 per cent.
Huge interest payments on external debt over two months: $4.4 billion
Turkey, which has borrowed at the world’s highest interest rates both domestically and abroad, saw its interest payments on external debt rise by 10.8 per cent to reach 4.4 billion dollars in the first two months of this year. Of this payment, 1.8 billion dollars was made by the Central Bank and the public sector, whilst the remaining 2.6 billion dollars was paid by banks and the real sector. Turkey’s external debt, which must be repaid within one year regardless of its original maturity, increased by 13.7 billion dollars in the first two months of this year, reaching 239.2 billion dollars.
Of this amount, 12.3 billion dollars was paid by the Treasury, 578 million dollars by local authorities, 45.5 billion dollars by public banks, 563 million dollars by public enterprises, and 24.4 billion dollars by the Central Bank. Over the next 12-month period, privately-owned banks will make payments of 68.3 billion dollars, non-bank financial institutions 6.1 billion dollars, and the real sector 81.5 billion dollars.
The external debt stock stood at $520 billion as of the end of 2025. Forty-five per cent of the stock consists of debt due within one year. In addition to $239.2 billion in principal repayments, the country must also pay approximately $25 billion in external debt interest.
Tax burden rose, ranking soared
In 2025, the tax burden on wages rose by 0.76 percentage points to 40.3 per cent. As workers were pushed into higher tax brackets, the country moved above the OECD average. Turkey ranks 14th out of 38 countries in terms of tax burden. According to a report by Havva Gümüşkaya in Birgün newspaper, the OECD’s ‘Taxation of Wages 2026’ report analysed the tax burdens on wage earners across 38 OECD countries for 2025 and previous years, featuring various statistics including the tax wedge—which illustrates the difference between an employee’s cost to the employer and their net take-home pay.
On average across the OECD, the tax wedge for a single, childless worker rose by 0.15 percentage points to 35.1 per cent in 2025. Turkey, however, remained above the OECD average with a tax burden of 40.3 per cent for a single worker. Whilst it ranked 19th in the previous year’s tax burden ranking on wages with 39 per cent, it rose to 14th place in 2025.
Looking at the ranking, it was notable that Turkey followed the high-income countries. In the ranking of countries with the highest tax burden, Turkey comes after Belgium, Germany, France, Austria, Italy, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia, Finland, Spain, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Sweden. Between 2024 and 2025, the tax wedge in Turkey increased by 0.76 percentage points.
The poverty line for a family of four stands at 33,369 lira
According to a study by the United Metal Workers’ Union Class Research Centre (BİSAM), the daily essential food expenditure for a family of four was calculated at 1,112 lira, with milk and dairy products accounting for the largest share of the budget at 29.3 per cent. The poverty line for a family of four to maintain a healthy diet stood at 33,369 lira. When other basic expenses such as education, healthcare, housing, entertainment, heating and transport are added, the poverty line—which indicates the total expenditure a family must make—stood at 109,630 lira.
According to the study, the daily expenditure a four-person family must make solely on food was 1,112 lira. In daily expenditure, the highest cost category was milk and dairy products, with a spending requirement of 325.4 lira and a 29.3 per cent share. This was followed by fruit and vegetables, with a spending requirement of 285.34 lira and a 25.7 per cent share.
CHP’s Gürer: The burden is on the citizens’ shoulders, enforcement cases are mounting
CHP Niğde MP Ömer Fethi Gürer tabled a bill proposing the waiver of interest and late payment charges on credit card and consumer loan debts, whilst restructuring the principal. Emphasising that current restructuring measures have failed to resolve the issue, Gürer stated that debts spread over long terms have actually increased overall, and therefore a permanent solution is required.
Gürer noted that citizens are turning to loans and credit cards to meet their basic needs, adding that despite the economic administration’s rhetoric of “fiscal discipline”, this discipline has largely been placed on the shoulders of the public.
Gürer stated that 26 liras out of every 100 liras paid in tax by citizens goes towards interest, whilst 20 liras out of every 100 liras spent from the budget is allocated to interest payments. Gürer emphasised that this situation is unsustainable.
Gürer noted that citizens’ debt to banks is rising rapidly, stating that total individual loan and credit card debt has reached 6 trillion 510 billion lira. Noting that the total increase since the start of the year has amounted to 652 billion lira, Gürer stated that individual loans have reached 3 trillion 330 billion lira, whilst credit card debt has risen to 3 trillion 181 billion lira.
Drawing attention to the rise in enforcement cases, Gürer stated that the number of cases filed with enforcement offices in the first months of 2026 had reached 3 million 71 thousand, whilst the total number of pending cases had risen to 24 million 699 thousand. Noting that the number of cases had increased by 1 million 519 thousand over the past year, Gürer said that economic hardship had spread to all sections of society.
Companies’ net foreign exchange deficit liabilities hit an all-time high
The net foreign exchange deficit of companies outside the financial sector reached $200.281 billion in February, the highest level since July 2018. The liabilities of the real sector, meanwhile, reached a historic high of 384 billion 965 million dollars. According to Central Bank data, in February, compared to the previous month, the foreign exchange assets of firms outside the financial sector increased by 1 billion 226 million dollars, whilst liabilities rose by 4 billion 468 million dollars. As a result of these developments, the net foreign exchange position deficit of these firms rose by 3 billion 242 million dollars to 200 billion 281 million dollars.
The liabilities of the real sector, meanwhile, reached a historic high of 384 billion 965 million dollars. Looking at the maturity structure of liabilities, short-term loans obtained domestically in February fell by 10 million dollars compared to January, whilst long-term loans rose by 1 billion 230 million dollars.
Sabancı’s short-term debts far exceeded its receivables
Economist Barış Soydan drew attention to Sabancı Group’s recent sale of companies, highlighting its short-term debt. Soydan commented: “Sabancı sold two of its companies in a week: Carrefoursa and Akçansa. The holding’s short-term debt far exceeded its assets, and it was essential for it to find funds from somewhere. A101, BİM and Migros are in an oligopolistic position; this acquisition will further cement that oligopoly. Let’s see whether the Competition Authority grants approval.”
Arçelik is withdrawing from the Asian market, transferring its shares to Hitachi
Arçelik has decided to transfer its 60 per cent stake in the global joint venture Hitachi Global Life Solutions. The agreement, which also covers production and R&D facilities in China and Thailand, signals a significant change of ownership within the production network in Asia. The company is transferring its 60% stake in Arçelik Hitachi Home Appliances B.V. to its partner, Hitachi Global Life Solutions.
According to a report on halktv.com.tr, under the signed agreement, 205 million dollars will be paid upfront at the closing stage. A further 56 million dollars in deferred payments will be collected over the three years following the closing.
Additionally, a further price adjustment may be made depending on the cash position at the time of transfer. This sale will not be limited to a mere share transfer. Along with the 12 subsidiaries under the Hitachi umbrella, Arçelik’s production facilities in China and Thailand—which represent the company’s technological and manufacturing capabilities—as well as its R&D (Research and Development) centres, will also be transferred. This signifies a shift in Arçelik’s production focus within the Asian market.
One of the strategic reasons behind the sale is Hitachi’s plan to incorporate its home appliances division into a new joint venture with the Japanese retail giant Nojima Corporation. The aim is for Arçelik Hitachi to be ultimately transferred to a new structure under Nojima’s control. If the process with Nojima cannot be completed, Hitachi will purchase the shares directly.
Turkish aviation giant Onur Air has gone into administration
The long-running legal saga surrounding Onur Air, a company that left its mark on an era in the aviation sector, has reached its expected conclusion. The bankruptcy of the giant company, established in 1992 as one of Turkey’s first private ventures in aviation history, has been officially registered by the local court.
According to a report in Yeniçağ, the decision, which was overturned by the Court of Appeal in November 2025 and restarted the legal process from scratch, has now been finalised by the Bakırköy 1st Civil Commercial Court, to which the case was referred. With this ruling issued at 11:28 on 16 April 2026, the liquidation process for Onur Air Taşımacılık A.Ş. has been officially initiated under bankruptcy case number 2026/25. Once a giant in the skies with a massive fleet of 29 Airbus aircraft and over 1,600 staff, the company operated flights to more than 120 destinations across 25 countries. Having carried over 90 million passengers during its quarter-century of operation, Onur Air had also made headlines in 2013 with a massive $250 million sale.
TMSF has put TELE1, which it took over, up for auction
The TELE1 channel, founded and owned by journalist Merdan Yanardağ but placed under TMSF administration on the evening of the day Yanardağ was detained, has been put up for sale. The TMSF has set an estimated value of 28 million lira for the channel. The deadline for submitting bids for the auction, to be conducted via open tender, has been announced as 16 June 2026.
TELE1’s Director of Broadcasting, Merdan Yanardağ, was detained on 24 October on charges of “espionage” and was subsequently arrested. Yanardağ, who has reacted to the channel’s sale, stated: “It’s very clear; 28 million lira is a bargain-basement price. I’ll reveal a piece of information here for the first time: last year, an offer 15 times this amount was made for Tele1, but we didn’t sell. We were also informed that the price could be raised further if we wished.”
Akçay quietly stepped down from the CBRT
Dr Cevdet Osman Akçay stepped down from his role as Deputy Governor of the Central Bank prior to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Akçay’s name has been removed from the bank’s management lists. Whilst it was known that Akçay was expected to retire this month, the Central Bank has not issued an official statement on the matter.
Osman Cevdet Akçay, who served as chief economist at Yapı Kredi Bank, part of the Koç Group, between 2009 and 2018, was appointed Deputy Governor of the TCMB on 28 July 2023.
Appearing before the press for the last time at an event three weeks ago, Akçay “Saying ‘let’s raise the minimum wage to a high level so at least the workers are saved’ is the worst idea in the world”, drawing criticism. Akçay argued that wages must be further suppressed in the fight against inflation and stated, “The election period interests me not at all; if fiscal policy loosens, I will tighten it further.”
Canadian Prime Minister Carney: Closeness to the US is now a weakness
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada’s long-standing close economic ties with the US have now turned into a “weakness” for Canada. Speaking in a 10-minute video message, Carney stated that Canada must move away from excessive dependence on a single country. “The world is a more dangerous and divided place,” said Carney, noting that the US has undergone a fundamental shift in its trade policy and raised tariffs to levels not seen since the Great Depression.
Carney said, “We must look to ourselves because we cannot rely on a single foreign partner. We cannot control the turmoil coming from our neighbours. We cannot build our future on the hope that this will end overnight.”
US President Donald Trump, who has plunged global trade relations into crisis with tariff threats directed at both rival nations and allies, had also sparked a backlash in the Canadian public with his remarks suggesting that Canada should be a US state.
Can the US bring China to its knees just as it did with Japan?
Economist Dr Mahfi Eğilmez, in his latest article, compared Japan’s collapse in the global economy with China and asked: Why did Japan’s share of global GDP, which stood at 15 per cent 40 years ago, fall to 5 per cent? What happened to Japanese banks, which were the world’s largest in the late 1980s, and to Japanese technology giants? Could the same happen to China? Could the US bring China down just as it did Japan?
Eğilmez’s response is as follows: It’s not that simple. Due to a larger domestic market, stricter state oversight, and a different financial structure, China is not expected to experience a sudden collapse like Japan’s.
Germany is turning to the arms industry to emerge from the crisis
In Germany, which is experiencing a severe bottleneck in its export-driven industrial model, the collapse in the automotive sector and the decline in production are being addressed by a shift towards the defence industry. Berlin aims to create a new area of accumulation by linking the closing or shrinking industrial capacity to Europe’s rearmament drive.
According to a report by Sol.org citing the Wall Street Journal, Berlin is now attempting to respond to this structural crisis by expanding the defence industry. According to the newspaper, Germany is not seeking to revive the old industrial model, but to build a new war economy in its place, and is striving to position itself as the continent’s “defence industry backbone” at a time when US security guarantees are weakening and Europe is rapidly rearming.
According to data cited by the newspaper, approximately 15,000 jobs are being lost in Germany’s manufacturing sector every month. This loss has become even more evident in the automotive sector, once considered the backbone of the country’s economy. While Mercedes-Benz’s profits fell by 49 per cent in 2025, Volkswagen announced that its profits had declined by 44 per cent over the same period and revealed plans to lay off 50,000 people in Germany by 2030.
Nike is preparing to lay off 1,400 staff; Meta 8,000
Sportswear brand Nike has announced it will lay off 1,400 staff globally due to changes it is undergoing. The company’s Chief Operating Officer, Venkatesh Alagirisamy, stated that the steps taken to strengthen the company’s foundation, sharpen its competitive edge and create a model for long-term profitable growth would lead to changes in certain team structures, work locations and headcount.
In a note stating that the workforce is expected to be reduced by approximately 1,400 people, it was noted that the majority of these cuts would affect employees in the technology sector.
Meta Platforms, meanwhile, is preparing to lay off approximately 8,000 employees to reduce costs and finance investments in artificial intelligence. The company will also cancel 6,000 open positions. For the company, which had approximately 78,000 employees at the end of 2025, this step equates to around 10 per cent of its total workforce.
Alongside Meta, Microsoft and Amazon are also taking similar steps. It has been reported that Microsoft plans to offer voluntary redundancy to over 8,000 employees, primarily senior staff, within its US workforce of 125,000. Amazon, meanwhile, had previously announced cuts affecting 16,000 positions earlier this year.