Levent Gürses
This week’s headline was the minimum wage, announced at a gross 33,030 lira and a net 28,075 lira for the new year, which remains below the poverty line.
In fact, it was expected to fall below the poverty line. When Labour and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan announced that the minimum wage would be increased by 27 per cent to 28,075 lira net, with Turki-İş, representing the workers’ side, absent from the commission, reactions were strong.
The new net minimum wage set for 2026 fell 2,580 lira short of the poverty line of 30,655 lira set by the research and development unit of Birleşik Kamu-İş, Kamu-Ar, for December 2025. The Kamu-Ar report stated, ‘The minimum wage needed to be increased by at least 40 per cent to reach the poverty line.’
The details of the minimum wage to be applied in 2026 are as follows: The monthly cost of the minimum wage to the employer is 40,874 lira 63 kuruş. Accordingly, of the gross minimum wage of 33,030 lira, 28,075 lira 50 kuruş constituted the net minimum wage, 4,624 lira 20 kuruş constituted the SGK premium, and 330 lira 30 kuruş constituted the unemployment insurance premium. When the Social Security Institution contribution (employer’s share) of 7,184 lira 3 kuruş and the employer’s unemployment insurance contribution of 660 lira 60 kuruş are added to the gross minimum wage, the monthly cost of the new minimum wage to the employer for one worker amounts to 40,874 lira 63 kuruş.
With the new minimum wage figure, the minimum wage support provided by the state to employers for each minimum wage earner has also been increased from 1,000 lira to 1,270 lira. While approximately 1.5 million businesses received 46.8 billion lira in minimum wage support during the first nine months of this year, the support to be provided for 12 months in 2026 will amount to over 65 billion lira for employers with more than 12 million employees.
Eğilmez: The solution to inflation has once again been placed on the shoulders of wage earners
Following the determination of the new minimum wage, economist Mahfi Eğilmez published an article titled “The Truth About the Minimum Wage Account” calculating the rate at which the minimum wage should be determined based on purchasing power. Eğilmez stated:
“The average inflation rate for 2025 (according to TurkStat, consumer prices index (TÜFE) or headline inflation calculations) was calculated as 35.91 per cent. Again, TurkStat headline inflation is estimated at 30 per cent for the year-end inflation rate. The rent increase rate calculated in December is 35.91%. Accordingly, tenants whose lease expires in December can be charged a 35.91% rent increase for 2026.
According to TÜRK-İŞ’s calculations, the poverty line (for a family of four) was set at 29,828 lira as of November 2025. If we add December to this, the threshold will be approximately 30,500 lira. At the beginning of 2025, the minimum wage (net) was set at 22,104 lira. The minimum wage for 2026 has been announced as 28,075 lira.
Nearly 60% of the minimum wage will go towards rent
According to a study by BETAM (Bahçeşehir University Economic and Social Research Centre), the average rent per square metre in Turkey is 240.5 lira. Assuming a family of four earning the minimum wage lives in a 60 m² home, their rent would be 14,430 lira. Based on this calculation, the rent will be 16,391 lira in 2026 (14,430 x 1.3591 =). This means that nearly 60% of the minimum wage (16,391 / 28,075 =) will go towards rent.
The minimum wage, which stood at 22,104 lira at the beginning of 2025, has lost its purchasing power due to inflation over the course of the year. Based on the headline inflation rate at the end of 2025, this loss amounts to 30 per cent. Accordingly, in order to restore the minimum wage to its purchasing power at the beginning of 2025, the minimum wage of 22,104 lira at the beginning of the year needs to be increased by 30 per cent, which would bring it to 28,735 lira (22,104 x 1.30).
The minimum wage has been announced as 5,258 lira lower than it should be
As rents will increase before 2026 even begins and prices will also rise during the year, purchasing power will be lost in 2026 as well. If we try to offset this with the most optimistic year-end inflation forecast in the Medium-Term Programme (OVP), we arrive at a minimum wage of 33,333 lira (28,735 x 1.16). According to this calculation, the announced minimum wage of 28,075 lira is 5,258 lira lower than it should be. If we perform the same calculation using the average annual inflation rates, the minimum wage that should have been announced is 35,344 lira. Accordingly, the difference between the announced and calculated amounts is 7,269 lira.
The announced minimum wage of 28,075 lira is below the current poverty line. Even if we assume that the poverty line will increase by 16 per cent in 2026, as predicted in the OVP’s year-end inflation forecast, we can calculate that it will reach 35,380 lira (30,500 x 1.16). In this case, we can see that the minimum wage calculation will not fall below the poverty line, as shown in the sixth row of the table.
In summary, the announced minimum wage is not only below next year’s poverty line but also below this year’s poverty line, and the burden of inflation has once again been placed on wage earners and pensioners.”
“It’s not much, just living like an ordinary person.”
One day, writer Yalçın Karatepe commented on the minimum wage increase from the perspective of worker Ahmet. A section of Karatepe’s article reads as follows:
That night, when he lay his head on the pillow, he realised: 28,075 lira was not purchasing power. That figure was a barrier telling Ahmet, ‘This is the value of your life; don’t go beyond this limit.’
The question that no one asked echoed in Ahmet’s mind: Was the minimum wage just a number, or was it the price tag on a person’s right to live with dignity? For Ahmet, the answer was clear. He was tired of the ‘market economists’ telling him to ‘grit his teeth.’ He just wanted to breathe normally, to meet the end of the month not like a battlefield but like a peaceful evening.
‘It’s not much,’ he murmured into the darkness.
‘Just to live like a human being, just like an ordinary person.’
This minimum wage tells workers, “You are not human”
Economist Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara said, “If a wage increase in an economy does not satisfy either the employee or the employer, then there is either a serious income/resource distribution problem and/or low productivity. Or one side is not telling the truth,‘ said Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara. Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Elgin asked, ’It has been announced that the new net minimum wage is 28,075 TL, an increase of 27%. So, in an environment where inflation is 31.5% in 2025, what does this rate of increase mean?”
The answer was provided by Mehmet Türkmen, General President of Bir-Tek-Sen and trade unionist: ‘This minimum wage is telling workers, “Starve to death!” This minimum wage is telling workers, “You are not human.”’
Journalist Deniz Zeyrek also said:
‘I am calling out to Vedat Işıkhan and Mehmet Şimşek from here. You have set a minimum wage that cannot even buy three-quarter gold coins. If you are brave enough, try to get by on 28,075 TL for a month, or else stop talking nonsense!’
IPA: The cost of living for a family of four in November was 106,034 TL
The November results of the Istanbul Barometer survey published by the Istanbul Planning Agency (IPA) once again revealed the increase in the cost of living in the city. According to the survey, the average cost of living for a family of four in Istanbul rose by 1.06 per cent in November compared to the previous month, from 104,927 lira to 106,034 lira.
On an annual basis, the increases were particularly concentrated in education and housing expenses. The annual increase in education expenses reached 100.7%, while the rise in housing expenses was calculated at 60.4%.
Türk-İş: Food expenditure rose to 29,828 TL
TÜRK-İŞ’s latest study revealed the pressure on living conditions. According to the research, the monthly food expenditure required for a family of four living in Ankara to have a healthy, balanced and adequate diet rose to 29,828 TL. The poverty line, which includes clothing, housing, transportation, education, health and other essential expenses in addition to food expenditure, was calculated at 97,159 TL.
Food inflation rose by 1,508 per cent between September 2021 and December
In its latest report, KAMU-AR, the R&D unit of Birleşik Kamu-İş, stated that food prices in Turkey have risen continuously for 67 months and increased by 1,508 per cent between September 2021 and December.
Food inflation has been one of the most pressing economic problems in almost all countries since the pandemic… It has reached double digits in many developed countries, particularly in 2022. Most countries have managed to bring rising food inflation under control. In the Eurozone, food inflation, which reached an all-time high of 17.5 per cent in March 2023, stood at 2.3 per cent in November. In the US, it had reached 11.4% in August 2022 and is now at 2.6%. In Turkey, food inflation peaked at 102.5% in November 2022 and fell to 27.4% in November. It was 34.9% in October.
Turkey remains one of the economies with the highest food inflation… We are the eighth country in the world with the highest food inflation. Countries with higher rates than Turkey are South Sudan, Iran, Haiti, Bolivia, Malawi, Burundi and Argentina. Many Western countries have annual rates equivalent to Turkey’s monthly food inflation.
In Europe, we have the highest rate. Ukraine, which follows us, has a rate of 12.1%, more than double ours. Next are Belarus at 9.9%, Kosovo at 8.7%, and Romania at 7.6%.
Countries with the highest food inflation
Country Food inflation, %
South Sudan 106*
Iran 57.9*
Haiti 35.1*
Bolivia 32.8
Malawi 30.1
Burundi 29.3*
Argentina 28.2
Turkey 27.4
Lebanon 16.9
Angola 16.9
Zimbabwe 15.3
Zambia 13.9
Kazakhstan 13.4
Ukraine 12.1
Mongolia 12 1
Nigeria 11.1
Ethiopia 10.6
Kyrgyzstan 10.5
Georgia 10.3
Paraguay 10
Bingöl: We will pay 495,000 TL in taxes per second, but the state will give 2.7 trillion of this to interest
Tax expert Ozan Bingöl shared striking figures regarding the 2026 budget approved by Parliament. Bingöl’s calculations are as follows:
Next year, we will pay 495,658 lira in taxes per second. In total, they will collect 15 trillion 631 billion lira in taxes from us. Of this tax we will pay:
-8.5 trillion lira will come from just two indirect taxes, namely excise tax and VAT
-3.5 trillion lira from Income Tax,
-1.7 trillion lira from Corporate Tax,
-The remaining 2 trillion lira will be collected from all other taxes and fees. But it will still not be enough. Next year’s budget deficit is estimated at 2.7 trillion lira, and interest payments are also 2.7 trillion lira.
Turkey is the country with the lowest social spending within the OECD
According to TÜİK data, one in five people benefit from social spending. In 2024, social protection spending will account for 11.1 per cent of GDP, placing Turkey at the bottom of the OECD countries in terms of this ratio.
According to TÜİK’s ‘Social Protection Statistics’ data for 2024, social protection expenditure increased by 84.1 per cent compared to the previous year, rising to 4.96 trillion TL in 2024. The share of expenditure in GDP was 11.1 per cent in 2024. When examined based on risk and need groups, expenditures on pensioners and the elderly accounted for the largest share at 5.1%.
Turkey ranks last among OECD member countries in terms of social spending relative to its national income.
According to 2024 data, while the average ratio of social spending to GDP in OECD countries was 21.23%, Turkey had the lowest ratio of social spending to GDP at 11.3%. The OECD country with the highest ratio of social spending to GDP was Austria at 31.55%.
TurkStat reveals the situation of pensioners: 2.2 trillion TL in social protection assistance
According to TurkStat’s social protection statistics, the number of people receiving pensions, widows’ and orphans’ pensions, and disability pensions under social protection increased by 3.5 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 17.4 million, while the number of people receiving old-age pensions increased by 4 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year, rising to 12.9 million.
According to data compiled by Yurdagül Uygun from Nefes, the state’s social protection assistance increased by 98 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023, rising from 2.6 trillion lira to 4.8 trillion lira. The share of total social protection assistance received by pensioners increased from 44% in 2023 to 46%. While 1.1 trillion lira in social protection assistance was provided to pensioners in 2023, this figure rose to 2.2 trillion lira in 2024. While 62.5 per cent of social protection assistance was provided in cash, the largest share, 75 per cent, was made up of assistance to pensioners and the elderly. Widow and orphan assistance ranked second with 16.1 per cent.
In 2024, the number of people receiving salary assistance under social protection in Turkey rose to 18.3 million, with pensioners accounting for 12.9 million. The total number of people receiving widow and orphan pensions rose to 4.2 million, while the number of people receiving disability pensions was 851.
Financial situation index plummets
The consumer confidence index fell by 1.8 per cent in December to 83.5. The index, which the economic administration boasted was ‘on the rise’ last month, has thus returned to the levels seen in July. The consumer confidence index, calculated through a survey conducted in collaboration with the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), stood at 85 in November but decreased by 1.8% this month to 83.5.
An index above 100 indicates optimism in consumer confidence, while an index below 100 indicates pessimism. The current household financial situation index fell by 2.4 per cent from 69.6 to 67.9, approaching its lowest level. Expectations for the next 12 months also fell by 0.6% this month to 85.2. The index of expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months, which was 79.6 last month, was calculated at 78.2 this month, a decrease of 1.8%.
Gold and silver end 2025 with new records
The price of silver per ounce broke a record by rising above $67 for the first time in history. Gaining 133 per cent in value since the beginning of the year, silver has been one of the best-performing assets among precious metals. Gold prices also broke records due to safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. Driven by ongoing central bank purchases, gold’s ounce price hit a record high of $4,531 today.
Falling interest rates, rising financial concerns, and general economic uncertainty have driven investors towards safe-haven assets and higher-yielding investments, boosting demand for silver and other precious metals this year.
Gold report from a major bank: Record signal in 2026
Goldman Sachs has prepared a report on the 2026 commodity outlook. The bank predicts that copper prices will enter a consolidation phase in 2026 and stabilise at an average of $11,400 per tonne. The bank announced that, in its base scenario, it expects gold prices to rise by 14 per cent to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026. Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil will average $56 per barrel in 2026, while WTI crude oil will average $52 per barrel. The bank expects oil prices to bottom out in mid-2026 and then recover to $80 for Brent and $76 for WTI by the end of 2028. Brent crude traded at $60.04 and WTI at $56.46.
Agreement on closing retail chains on Sundays
Traders, artisans and representatives of the retail sector reached an agreement at a workshop hosted by the Turkish Retailers Federation (TRF) that supermarket chains should be closed on Sundays. Ömer Düzgün, Chairman of the TRF Board of Directors, said, ‘There are no obstacles to this regulation. We are now waiting for the Ministry of Trade to have the final say and take the final step.’
Market chain BİM decides to establish a bank
BİM announced that it has decided to apply to the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) to establish a participation bank. In a statement made by BİM Birleşik Mağazalar AŞ on the Public Disclosure Platform, it was recalled that a decision had been made to conduct research on participating in a digital participation bank, likely to be established on 3 October 2024. It was stated that establishing a traditional participation bank, which will be designed primarily through digital channels, is more advantageous due to the much wider variety of services compared to a digital bank.
Cengiz Elektrik to illuminate airports
Cengiz Holding, one of the favourite companies of the AKP era, has won tens of millions of lira worth of public electricity tenders. The General Directorate of State Airports Authority (DHMİ) awarded an 11.7 million TL electricity procurement tender to Cengiz Elektrik, while the Ministry of Industry awarded a 40.1 million TL tender.
On 13 November, DHMİ held a tender for ‘Electricity Energy from the Free Market for the 2026 General Directorate Service Building’. Three electricity companies, Aycan Toptan Elektrik, Cengiz Elektrik and Dicle Elektrik, submitted bids for the tender. DHMİ calculated an approximate cost of 11 million 666 thousand 845 TL for the services it would receive under the tender. DHMİ signed a contract with Cengiz Elektrik, which submitted a bid above the approximate cost it had calculated.
Decision affecting 1.6 million parents: Regulation of private school fee increases
The Ministry of National Education has made fundamental changes to the 2026 private school fee policy, affecting more than 1.6 million parents. With the regulation change, a ‘ceiling increase’ limit has been introduced not only for intermediate grades but also for the first time for starting grades. Accordingly, the increased ceiling for next year will be set at a lower level. The Ministry has also limited the increases in book and stationery fees.
312 businesses closed their doors every day in the first 11 months of the year
CHP Manisa MP Bekir Başevirgen stated that 102,976 businesses closed their doors in the first 11 months of the year, meaning that an average of 312 businesses went bankrupt every day. Emphasising that the tax burden would increase with the transition from the simplified to the actual method in 2026, Başevirgen said, ‘This picture is an alarm, a declaration of bankruptcy.’
Another 3 billion lira was added to individual debts in one week
According to the weekly money and banking statistics announced by the Central Bank, in the week ending 19 December, debts that citizens could not pay and that banks took over increased by 3 billion 141 million lira compared to the previous week, reaching 572 billion 147 million lira.
A special provision of 423 billion 107 million lira was set aside for receivables under collection. Consumer loans amounted to 5 trillion 473 billion 846 million 306 thousand lira in the same week. Of the credit debts, 668 billion 705 million 306 thousand lira were for housing, 49 billion 978 million 923 thousand lira were for vehicles, 2 trillion 111 billion 197 million 972 thousand lira were for consumer loans, and 2 trillion 643 billion 964 million 213 thousand lira were for personal credit cards.
SMEs have a huge share in employment, but their share in production is only 40 pct
The 2024 report card for SMEs, which play an important role in the country’s economy due to their large share in the total number of businesses and employment, has been published. TÜİK data shows that SMEs constitute almost all of the capillaries of trade and production in the country.
However, despite their enormous share in the total number of enterprises, SMEs only accounted for 39.8 per cent of the production value. According to a special report by Birgün newspaper, SMEs constituted 99.6 per cent of the total number of enterprises in 2024.
Three million 928 thousand enterprises operating in the industrial and service sectors fell into the SME category. However, 89.9% of these enterprises were micro-enterprises with 1-9 employees and annual net sales or financial balance sheets not exceeding 10 million TL.
US economy grew above expectations
The US GDP increased by 4.3 per cent on an annualised basis in the third quarter of this year. The country’s economy recorded its highest growth performance since the third quarter of 2023. The US economy, which grew more than expected, was forecast to grow by 3.3 per cent during this period. The economy had contracted by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year before growing by 3.8% in the second quarter. Consumer spending, exports and government spending were key drivers of the economy’s growth in the third quarter, although these increases were partially offset by a decline in investment.