Can Baydarol
Exactly four years are about to end. The war that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, will complete its fourth year on February 24, 2026. Is there any hope for an end? Although it is occasionally mentioned, and there are occasional possibilities of a ceasefire, it seems unlikely. A war with no winners, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, millions displaced from their homes, and billions of dollars spent on the war. Who is right, who is wrong, who cares?
The fears created by the Russia-Ukraine war, with EU countries, especially Germany, feeling the Russian threat and wondering if it will be their turn next. Desperate attempts to keep the increasingly fragile NATO shield in place. The interview given by the German Foreign Minister to Deutsche Welle the other day was probably the height of German despair. While the German Foreign Minister was praising NATO and reminiscing about the good old days, the US Secretary of State was simultaneously continuing his statements that NATO was nearing the end of its life.
Under these conditions, will the Russia-Ukraine war end? Will Ukraine continue to be supported to the end, primarily by Germany, in order to further weaken Russia?
The repercussions of the war in our north, Turkey’s increasing importance thanks to its military power, the nature of the new era in relations with the EU, and how these developments will affect our relations with Russia are the main questions facing us in the coming days. Naturally, how the significant developments likely to occur in foreign policy will shape our domestic policy will also be a topic of discussion.
What about what’s happening in the south?
As the US deploys its second aircraft carrier to the Arabian Sea, Iran has begun exercises aimed at closing the Strait of Hormuz; in the shadow of these developments, US-Iran negotiations continue. According to Trump, if no conclusion is reached in the negotiations, it will be a pity for Iran. Somehow, the talk of striking Iran with two aircraft carriers and Israel’s possible role brings to mind what was said four years ago during the Russia-Ukraine war. For many international relations analysts, the war would last no more than four days, after which Russia would get what it wanted and peace would be restored.
But did that happen? As we tried to explain above, four years have passed, and the uncertainty about when it will end continues.
So, would a potential US + Israel – Iran conflict end within four days? Let’s call it what it is: could the US-Israel alliance, using disproportionate force, achieve its main goal of ending the Mullah regime and ensuring that a new US-friendly regime takes power in Iran? Could the last representatives of the Pahlavi dynasty be a hope for everyone?
It doesn’t look easy. The numerous uprisings incited within Iran, supported by the US-Israel alliance to the extent that they cast doubt on the legitimacy of the uprisings, have consolidated the Mullah regime. Yes, disproportionate use of force could cause great damage to Iran, but can Iran’s counterattacks be ignored? How predictable is the resistance of Iran, which is supported by China and, to the extent it can, Russia? Can the consequences of Iran playing its obvious card, the Strait of Hormuz, on world oil prices and its triggering effect on a global economic crisis be ignored?
In addition to our share of the potential risks the world will face, we must also consider Iran’s threat to strike all American assets in the region. Would the possibility of Iranian strikes on US assets on Turkish soil draw us into a hot conflict with Iran?
We hope that February 2026 will usher in the return of winds of peace. Let us hope that we enter March with different feelings than we did in February 2022.