Can Baydarol
My wife said, “Come on, let’s go!” After a long journey and a few overnight stops, we found
ourselves on the small but charming Greek island of Leros, eating lamb whilst catching up
with our older schoolmates and siblings from Galatasaray High School. We spent two lovely
days on the island with over 90 people from all corners of the world and Turkey—all of whom
had attended Galatasaray High School—and their spouses.
First, I’ll write down the points that stuck with me politically. The question, “Which tutelage
regime’s legal system was more acceptable?” was hotly debated. Let there be no
misunderstanding: almost everyone taking part in this debate was my peers or elders who
had suffered greatly under the 12 September regime and detested military tutelage. The
answers to my question, “Under today’s conditions, would you prefer the old tutelage
regime?”, were “absolutely not”. Yet what they said was, “Even in the days of 12 September,
there was a predictable legal system in Turkey!” The best example was given by a colleague
of mine—a professor conducting very important medical research in France, whose name I
shall keep confidential. “During the 12 September period, I was arrested with a weapon due
to my past involvement with the left. My solicitor told me I’d receive a sentence of five years
and four months. Indeed, I received a sentence of five years and four months, and was
subsequently released from prison due to good behaviour, etc.! At present, I have no idea
what crimes those currently in custody are accused of, nor do I know anything regarding the
duration of their detention or potential prison sentences!”
We said our goodbyes, hoping to meet again at the next Leros lamb dinner, if we live to see
it; after a long journey, we returned home.
So, what did we find upon our return from the holiday?
As far as I can tell, not much has changed on the Turkish front. According to economists
whose views I value, there are once again calculation errors stemming from a lack of
mathematical understanding, new nightmare scenarios looming over our country due to
Turkey’s declining population, and, inevitably, a lack of planning and organisation.
Turning our attention to the wider world, there are the potential outcomes of the autumn
elections.
The first anticipated election took place in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt (formerly East
Germany). As expected, the far-right AfD emerged as the leading party, securing 44.4 per
cent of the vote. However, as it failed to secure a parliamentary majority, it was unable to
form a government on its own. Although the remaining parties have stated they will not form
a coalition with the AfD, a prolonged government crisis in this state appears inevitable due to
their clear differences of opinion.
So, does this result pose a serious threat to Germany in the medium and long term?
Absolutely yes. It is a fact that the Merz government will be unable to prevent the rise of the
far right if it continues to maintain financial support for Ukraine in this manner rather than
channelling resources towards resolving domestic issues.
If we look ahead to the other elections this autumn…
Early voting has begun for the Swedish general election, and we will see the final results next
week (13 September). It currently appears that the rise of the far right will not be felt too
strongly in the 349-member Swedish Parliament. Let’s hope that remains the case.
Leaving Germany and Sweden aside, the two elections that will undoubtedly have the
greatest impact on global trends are the general elections in Israel and the mid-term
elections in the US.
Israel is heading to the polls on Tuesday, 27 October. This election will also serve as a vote
of confidence for Netanyahu. Will Israel continue with Netanyahu? Or will he face legal
proceedings? Mind you, the majority say that whether Netanyahu stays or goes, not much
will change in Israel’s policies.
So, depending on the election results, what will happen to Israel-Turkey relations? Will the
tension continue? Or will there be a new period of détente? Mind you, there are numerous
political analysts who write and argue that the tension is merely for show and serves the
domestic political interests of both countries.
Following the Israeli elections, on 3 November we will witness the mid-term elections in the
US. Will Trump emerge from these elections having at least retained the power he currently
holds? Or will he become a ‘lame duck’ as the Democrats gain more seats?
So, for Turkey, is it a matter of choosing between Trump and the Democrats? Or does the
Democrats’ influence carry more weight?
Come to think of it, is the future of CAATSA, the F-35, the F-16 upgrade kits, and aircraft
engines really dependent solely on the outcome of these elections?
If we live to see it, we’ll just have to wait and see!