London, July 23 (HNA) – Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural market developments over the last 20 years and are projected to continue to do so over the next decade, but with regional shifts linked to changing demographics and new economic affluence, according to a report released today by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
“This Outlook has served as a valuable reference for policy planning, providing sound evidence base and data for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets. Over the coming decade, the volumes of agricultural commodities traded globally is expected to increase between net exporting regions and net importing regions. Still, with regional shifts reflecting increased global consumption in India and Southeast Asian countries,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said:
“Well-functioning agricultural markets, reducing food loss and waste, and more productive and less polluting forms of production will remain critically important for global food security and to ensure rural livelihoods can and do benefit from global agrifood value chains.”
“The Outlook confirms the need to implement strategies that bridge productivity gaps in low- and middle-income countries to increase domestic production and boost farmers’ incomes,” FAO Director-General QU Dongyu said.
The market projections are the bases for indicators on nutrition and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Commodity highlights based on the dedicated chapters include:
– Cereal demand is projected to continue to be led by food use, closely followed by feed use. In 2033, 41 percent of all cereals will be directly consumed by humans, 36 percent will be used as animal feed, while the remainder will be processed into biofuel and other industrial products.
– Yield challenges are projected to persist for oilseeds, with major producers experiencing slow growth or declines in yield, notably in Indonesia and Malaysia for palm oil, and the European Union and Canada for rapeseeds.
– Poultry meat will dominate the growth of the meat sector, primarily due to its relative affordability and perceived nutritional advantages. It is projected to account for 43 percent of total meat proteins consumed by 2033.
– World milk production is projected to grow at 1.6 percent per year over the next decade, faster than most other important agricultural commodities. Most of the growth will occur in India and Pakistan.
– Over 85 percent of the additional projected fish production will stem from aquaculture, elevating its share in global fish production to 55 percent by 2033.