Levent Gürses
Two important figures were announced; one was the third quarter growth figure: 3.7 per cent annually. The other was November’s inflation: according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), consumer prices rose by 0.87 per cent monthly, while annually they rose by 31.07 per cent. According to Inflation Research Group (ENAG), November’s inflation was 2.13 per cent, with annual inflation at 56.82 per cent.
Leaving aside the unhealthy nature of the growth data, this is a low rate for a developing country with a large population, such as Turkey, which is struggling with inflation at around 30 per cent. It also fell short of the 3.97 per cent forecast in a survey of economists.
Looking at the third quarter growth rates in recent years, the picture is as follows: 8.2 percent in 2021, 4.1 percent in 2022, 6.5 percent in 2023, 2.8 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent in 2025.
The lowest growth rate among developing countries in the G20…
Turkey has the lowest third-quarter growth rate among developing countries within the G20. In the third quarter of 2025, India grew by 8.2 per cent annually, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia by 5 per cent, China by 4.8 per cent, and Singapore by 4.2 per cent.
Among other developing countries, Vietnam and Taiwan grew by 8.2%, Kazakhstan by 6.3%, Mongolia by 5.9%, and Egypt by 5.3%. These are third-quarter rates for a fair comparison, but the second-quarter growth of many developing countries was also well above Turkey’s…
We are still in the top five for inflation and still above 30%
As for inflation, thanks to a slight decline, we remained below Argentina’s October inflation rate and had the sixth highest inflation in the world. If Argentina continues to decline in November, we will be fifth again. The situation is as follows: Venezuela 172 per cent (April), Sudan 113 per cent (October 2024), Iran 45 per cent (September), Haiti 32 per cent (September), Argentina 31.3 per cent (October), Turkey 31.07 per cent (November).
A brief comparison with the rest of the world: now let’s look at the details of the growth data. Yes, in the third quarter, GDP grew by 3.7% annually and 1.1% compared to the previous quarter.
Construction grew by 13.9%, and agriculture shrank by 12.7%
However, when we look at it sectorally, there is a very striking situation. In the third quarter, the highest increase in the chained volume index compared to the previous year was 13.9% in the construction sector, while the agriculture sector experienced a 12.7% decline.
The cost of this negative trend in the agriculture sector is increasing. Sharp price increases in all inputs, particularly diesel, fertiliser, seeds, feed, medicines, irrigation and energy, are disrupting farmers’ cost calculations, while frequent frosts, irregular rainfall and prolonged droughts are accelerating the contraction in the agriculture sector.
Growth was recorded in all sectors except agriculture. Industry grew by 6.5%, trade, transport, accommodation and food services by 6.3%, finance and insurance by 10.1%, and real estate activities by 10.8%.
Despite the contraction and slowdown in production, particularly in the export-oriented manufacturing sector, the growth recorded was noteworthy. The industrial sector, which contracted by 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year and grew by 6.1 per cent in the second quarter, recorded a 6.5 per cent growth in the final quarter.
Final consumption expenditure of resident households increased by 4.8 per cent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Final consumption expenditure of the government increased by 0.8 per cent, while gross fixed capital formation increased by 11.7 per cent.
Despite no wage increases during the year, the public continued to consume on credit and debt. Household consumption expenditure increased by 4.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Income per capita is $17,900, but for which segment…
GDP calculated using the production method increased by 41.6 per cent in the third quarter compared to the same quarter of the previous year at current prices, reaching 17 trillion 424 billion 718 million TL.
Furthermore, while the income of wage earners decreased, capital income increased. In the third quarter, labour income within GDP fell by 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous three months, dropping to 35 per cent. Operating surplus, consisting of profits, interest and rent income, increased by 5.4 percentage points to 46.7 per cent.
GDP at current prices amounted to 432 billion 880 million US dollars. This corresponds to 17 trillion 424 billion Turkish Liras.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), per capita national income reached a record high of 17,900 dollars. In 2024, it was 15,300 dollars. However, as economist Iris Cibre points out, the situation is as follows: “The top 10 per cent of households receive 32 per cent of disposable income, with an average annual income of 1.23 million lira. The bottom 10% receive 2.3%, with an average of 87,000 TL. Look at the gap… In terms of deposits, 82% of the total is held in 1.35% of deposit accounts. In short, that money is in the pockets of a happy minority…”
“If there’s no bread, let’s eat concrete” economy…
Experts interpret the latest situation in GDP as a ‘if there’s no bread, let’s eat concrete economy’. Prof. Dr. Veysel Ulusoy says, “The economy that turned fields into concrete grew by 3.7 per cent. While construction grew by 13 per cent, agriculture shrank by 12 per cent. This is growth that impoverishes.‘ Economist İnan Mutlu comments, ’This is a snapshot of the rentier economy. If the share of real estate activities in a country’s national income exceeds that of the agricultural sector, you cannot consume cheap food.”
The Evrensel newspaper carried the growth data on its front page, stating, “The covert IMF programme implemented for 2.5 years has deprived the people of their bread. Agriculture has shrunk at a record rate, the share of wage labour in national income has decreased, and the share of industrial production in the economy has fallen to 2009 crisis levels. While consumption continues for a privileged segment, debt and hunger have increased for workers. Construction and financial capital have flourished.”
The ratio of interest payments to national income will continue to increase
Economist İnan Mutlu also identified a situation related to the rent and interest economy. Despite the interest rate cuts that have taken place and are expected in 2026, the share of interest payments in GDP continues to increase. Following 2.6 per cent in 2023 and 3 per cent in 2024, this ratio is expected to be 3.5 per cent this year and 3.7 per cent in 2026. İnan Mutlu states, ‘How is a country’s budget mortgaged? One of the bills of the one-man regime in Turkey… Interest rates will fall, but the state’s interest payments as a percentage of national income will increase every year. They will cut budget resources from pensions, the poor, education, and health to pay interest.’
“We need to abandon our jobs and focus on agriculture.”
Former Undersecretary of the Treasury and economist Dr Mahfi Eğilmez pointed to a 12.7 per cent contraction in agriculture, stating, “The cost of this trend is increasing and will become even heavier in the future. This is a very serious decline in agriculture. We need to abandon our current pursuits and focus on agriculture.” Eğilmez emphasised that the construction and industry data did not match the complaints on the ground, and that the rise in consumption reflected a lack of confidence in the disinflation programme.
“The worst data in agriculture in the last eight years”
Cem Oyvat, a lecturer at Greenwich University, assessed the growth figures for the Birgün newspaper. Referring to the contraction in the agricultural sector and developments in the industrial sector, Oyvat said:
“The 12.7 per cent contraction in agriculture stands out in the growth figures. When comparing the third quarters, agricultural production has fallen to its lowest level in the last eight years. On the other hand, there is a 6.5% growth in the industrial sector, but the base effect plays a role in this situation. In other words, this growth comes on top of the contraction in the third quarter of 2024. Indeed, looking at the performance of the industry in the third quarter, the average growth over the last two years is 1.8 per cent. This is a low figure for Turkey. The share of national income received by wage earners has continued to decline since the last quarter of 2024. According to seasonally adjusted data, the share of labour payments in GDP, which was 33.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2024, fell to 33.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 and to 32.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2025. We are seeing the effects of the minimum wage increase being kept low at the beginning of 2025 and no interim increase being granted. There was also 10.8% growth in the financial sector. This growth may be due to credit interest rates remaining well above inflation and an increase in public interest payments. The increase in public consumption expenditure is also quite limited. For example, in the first three quarters of 2025, public consumption expenditure increased by 0.8 per cent in real terms compared to the previous year, while GDP grew by 3.7 per cent. Looking at the three-year period, we see that public consumption expenditure consistently remained below growth during Mehmet Şimşek’s tenure. Therefore, the criticism that inflation is falling because public spending is high is not accurate.”
Prof. Dr. Ensar Yılmaz summarised the entire situation as follows:
“It is not surprising:
- shrinking growth
- growth dominated by construction, finance and services
iii. growth that distorts income distribution
- growth that increases the trade deficit
- growth that shrinks the state…”
Surprising drop in inflation in November…
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), inflation rose by 31.07 per cent annually and 0.87 per cent monthly in November. The change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 35.91 per cent based on the twelve-month average. According to TÜİK, the inflation rate in November 2025 was 29.74 per cent compared to December of the previous year.
As of November 2025, the expenditure group with the highest annual inflation was education, at 66.17%. The expenditure group with the highest monthly increase was entertainment and culture, at 3.33%. The second group with the highest increase was alcoholic beverages and tobacco, at 2.42%.
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez said, ‘We were expecting inflation to be below 2%. But 0.87% is surprising and not credible. TÜİK reported 31.07% annually. İTO reported 38.28%. ENAG reported 56.82%. We are at 39.50% in interest rates.’
Economists interpreted the latest data as ‘keeping the inflation target low in December and giving low raises to workers and pensioners.’ The prevailing view among the majority of society is that ‘it’s not credible. Our salaries will increase according to inflation, but they are showing a low target and giving low raises.’
Prof. Dr. Şenol Babuşçu commented, “The difference in inflation calculations between ENAG and TÜİK is 25.75 points annually. In many countries, there isn’t even that much inflation.‘ Meanwhile, Dr. Burcu Aydın said, ’The increases in the transport and housing groups are also well below the trend… On the other hand, despite the discount season, monthly inflation increased in the clothing and footwear group. November’s inflation contains surprising results.”
December inflation expected to affect pay rises
Following the Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TÜİK) announcement of November inflation, the pay rise rates to be reflected in civil servant and pensioner salaries have been finalised. Accordingly, total inflation for the June-November period was 11.20 percent. Based on this figure and the 2026 collective agreement increase, SGK and Bağ-Kur pensioners will receive an 11.20 per cent increase over the five-month period, while civil servants and civil servant pensioners will receive a 17.55 per cent increase in their monthly salaries, including the collective agreement increase.
Worker pensioners receive increases based on six-month inflation figures, and in July, their monthly pensions were increased by 16.67 percent.
SGK and Bağ-Kur pensioners will receive an 11.20 per cent increase in January 2026, raising the lowest pension to 18,772 lira.
When the December inflation figures are announced, the six-month period will be complete, and the final increase rate for pension payments will be determined. Experts predict that with the addition of the December figures, the lowest pension payment will exceed 19,000 lira.
OECD report: Single-digit inflation postponed to another year
The OECD has published its Economic Outlook report. Inflation forecasts for Turkey have been raised for both 2025 and 2026. The inflation forecast for 2027, when the economic administration aims to achieve single-digit inflation, stands at 11.7 per cent.
The OECD forecasts that inflation will fall to 34.5 per cent this year and 20.8 per cent in 2026.
According to the report’s forecasts for the Turkish economy, which grew by 3.3 per cent in 2024, is expected to grow by 3.6 per cent this year, 3.4 per cent in 2026 and 4 per cent in 2027.
The OECD has thus revised its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards compared to its September projections. The organisation’s September forecast was for 3.2% growth this year and in 2026.
Fitch: Growth will be 3.8 per cent in 2025
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its global economic growth forecast from 2.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent for this year and from 2.3 per cent to 2.4 per cent for next year.
The report, which also includes assessments of the Turkish economy, states that the country’s growth forecast has been raised from 3.5% to 3.8% for this year.
Expectations of a rate cut of up to 2% at the December meeting…
With November inflation falling below expectations, all eyes are on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s meeting on 11 December. There are predictions of a policy rate cut of up to 2%.
Mahfi Eğilmez said, ‘A 39.50% interest rate is high for 31% inflation. Interest rates should be cut this month. The cut could be 1-1.5 points rather than 2 points.’
ING Global, meanwhile, announced that it maintains its expectation of a 100 basis point interest rate cut by the CBRT in the last month of the year following the inflation data, adding, ‘We do not rule out the possibility of a larger interest rate cut.’
November inflation satisfies the economic management and the ruling party
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated, ‘Our November inflation rate came in at 0.87 per cent. Core goods inflation has fallen to around 18 per cent. The decline in service inflation continues. Along with our earthquake housing and social housing projects, we expect a rapid decline in rent inflation.’
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz noted that the decline in the inflation rate since June 2024 has exceeded 44 points, adding, ‘We will resolutely continue our fight against inflation within a comprehensive framework, including supply-side policies, particularly in social housing and food.’
Treasury and Finance Minister Şimşek said, ‘In November, monthly inflation fell to its lowest level in 2.5 years, and annual inflation fell to its lowest level in 4 years. The improvement compared to May 2024 exceeded 44 points.’
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan also stated that the tight monetary policy stance would be maintained until price stability was achieved and that this approach would strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate and expectation channels.
Food prices up 122% in 17 months, inflation double Şimşek’s forecast…
CHP Istanbul MP Gamze Akkuş İlgezdi stated that even Yemen, Zimbabwe and Myanmar are in a better position than us in terms of inflation, noting that Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek claimed a year ago that inflation would fall below 20 per cent by the end of 2025, even reaching 17 per cent, but today the official inflation rate is double the minister’s prediction. İlgezdi emphasised that basic food prices have increased by 122 per cent in 17 months.
The height of injustice: a ‘discriminatory’ pay rise proposal in the public sector
Under the regulation submitted to Parliament by the AKP and passed by the Plan and Budget Commission, a flat pay rise of 30,000 TL is envisaged for ‘career’ groups such as general managers, department heads and inspectors, provincial directors and experts, covering approximately 30,000 people.
According to a report in Birgün newspaper, the lucky minority whose salaries will double with the regulation expected to pass the General Assembly consists of the following titles:
Secretary General of the Grand National Assembly, Presidents of SGK, AFAD and TÜİK. Ambassadors, President of Religious Affairs, Governors and District Governors.
Ministry General Directors, Department Heads and Advisors. Chief Inspectors, Inspectors, Auditors and Experts in the central organisation. Senior security and office staff at the Presidency and the Grand National Assembly. However, teachers, police officers, nurses, doctors, architects and engineers, who bear the burden of the public sector, were excluded from this increase.
The most criticised aspect of the regulation was the ‘centre-province’ distinction. Income specialists, Social Security Institution auditors and specialists in provincial directorates who perform the same job but are employed in the provinces will not be able to benefit from this right.
Minimum wage loss against inflation in 11 months: 6,574 TL
According to the DİSK-AR inflation report, the loss of the minimum wage against inflation in the 11th month of the year was 6,574 TL. However, the report emphasised that social classes and segments felt the resulting inflation very differently due to differences in income levels and spending patterns. While the lowest 20 per cent income group receives 6.3 per cent of total income and food accounts for 30.4 per cent of this group’s expenditure, the highest 20 per cent income group receives 48.1 per cent of total income and food accounts for only 12.8 per cent of their expenditure. The report stated, ‘While low-income groups have more limited income for non-food expenditures, this amount is quite high in high-income groups. This situation leads to inflation being felt differently in different social segments. Low-income groups experience more intense livelihood difficulties due to their limited disposable income.’
Meeting invitation for the minimum wage on 12 December…
The Ministry of Labour and Social Security has invited workers and employers to a meeting on 12 December to determine the minimum wage figure that will be valid in 2026.
The process has begun for the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, composed of workers, employers and government representatives, to determine the new minimum wage figure.
All eyes are on TÜRK-İŞ’s decision…
TÜRK-İŞ reacted to last year’s decision to set the minimum wage for 2025 at a net 22,104 lira, a 30 per cent increase, stating that ‘our voice is not being heard, our demands are not being met’ and walked away from the table.
In response, the ministry initiated work on the structure of the Commission, which currently consists of 15 members, including five each from workers, employers and the government, and presented TÜRK-İŞ with a formula that included reducing the number of government representatives to one.
Assessing the efforts to restructure the Minimum Wage Determination Commission by reducing the number of government representatives, TÜRK-İŞ President Atalay said, ‘I don’t think anything will change.’
Özgür Özel: 39,000 lira minimum wage is not enough, it gives breathing space
Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition party CHP, who held the 73rd ‘Standing Up for the Will of the People’ rally in Güngören, announced his party’s minimum wage proposal. Özel said, ‘39,000 lira is not enough, it’s a pittance,’ and continued:
“If some say they can’t live on this money and others say they’ll go bankrupt if they pay this, then the state will intervene. The deserved wage is at least 39,000, we won’t accept anything less. The minimum wage has become the basic wage. The minimum wage is the first wage received in the first year all over the world, and here it determines everyone’s salary. Trade unions must support the fight for the minimum wage. A decent increase in the minimum wage is our right, and we call on all of Turkey, all workers, and all employees to fight for it. We will be by their side, we will be behind them.”
DİSK: Poverty threshold cannot be exceeded in a family with four working members
The negotiation schedule for the minimum wage increase began today. DİSK announced its minimum wage demands with the 2026 Minimum Wage Report by the confederation’s research centre, DİSK-AR. DİSK President Arzu Çerkezoğlu said, ‘Today, life is expensive and labour is cheap in our country.’
Çerkezoğlu stated that as the 2026 minimum wage process begins, current wages have hit rock bottom in real terms, adding, “The hunger threshold has reached 30,000 lira, and the poverty threshold has exceeded 90,000 lira. Even if four people in a family work, they cannot rise above the poverty line.” The statement emphasised that the AKP government’s failure to increase the minimum wage throughout the year has increased the losses of millions.
Gold rises again, silver breaks historic record
Gold prices have risen on expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates. Silver prices, meanwhile, have reached historic highs.
After exceeding $4,257 per ounce on Monday, 1 December, spot gold on the London Stock Exchange eased to $4,163 on Tuesday. On 3 December, the price of an ounce of gold, which had risen to $4,241, closed at $4,201. As of 3 December, gold had gained 5% in the last month, 18% in the last three months, and 59% in the last year. Expectations that the Fed will decide to cut interest rates at its December meeting are causing gold to regain value.
The price of silver, meanwhile, hit a historic high of $58.91 per ounce on Wednesday. Silver has gained 21% over the past month and 88% over the past year.
Gold is also on the rise in the domestic market; the price of gold per gram, which reached 5,781 TL on Monday, 1 December, closed at 5,750 TL on Wednesday, 3 December. Gold per gram had reached a historic high of 5,865 TL on 20 October. Quarter gold, which was 9,577 TL on 1 December, closed at 9,521 TL on Wednesday, 3 December.
OECD: Sluggish growth in the global economy
In its latest report on the global economy, the OECD did not change its growth forecasts. As in its previous report, the organisation predicts that the global economy will grow by 3.2 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2026.
The global economy is expected to show a slight recovery in 2027, growing by 3.1 per cent.
According to the report, the world economy has performed more resiliently than expected this year, but underlying vulnerabilities persist.
The US economy is projected to grow by 2 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2026, with growth expected to rise to 1.9 per cent in 2027. Growth in the Eurozone is forecast to fall from 2.1 per cent this year to 1.9 per cent in 2026, rising to 2 per cent in 2027.
“If things continue like this, we won’t find any food products to sell in Turkey”
Migros Executive Board Chairman Ömer Özgür Tort stated that producers do not want to produce because they cannot make money, saying, ‘If we continue at this pace, we may not find any products to sell in Turkey.’
According to a report in the Ekonomim newspaper, Özgür Tort, speaking at the 26th Business World Summit organised by the Turkish Confederation of Businessmen and Industrialists in Antalya, said that Turkey is going through a period of serious risk in terms of food access and production.
Tort stated that producers do not want to produce because they cannot make money, emphasising that this has become a major threat to both the sector and the country.
Tort also drew attention to the importance of transport and mass production in price formation. Referring to the price difference between Antalya and Istanbul, Tort said, “The product costs 5 lira in Antalya and 35 lira in Istanbul. The math is very simple. Without efficient production, the cost of selling a zero-cost product in Istanbul is 21 lira. Producers will not produce at 5 lira. We must reduce supply costs and joint production costs.” Tort noted that input costs in mass production have fallen to one-third, and transport costs in rail transport have also fallen to one-third, stating that the use of technology in agriculture has become a necessity.
Koton CEO: We have received invitations from Egyptian ministers, we are resisting
Capital in the textile sector has begun to shift towards Egypt due to cheap labour. Koton CEO Bülent Sabuncu said that they had received invitations from Egyptian ministers to manufacture there, adding, ‘As Koton, we source 81 per cent of our production from Turkey, and we are resisting this.’ 26. Speaking at the Business World Summit, Sabuncu stated that ready-to-wear exports would decline from $21 billion three years ago to $16-16.5 billion this year, indicating a serious disruption in the sector. He added that Koton had received invitations from two separate Egyptian state ministers in the last two months and had held talks with them, saying, “The disruption is everywhere and everyone is working. We were in the top three in the world, but now we have fallen even further.”
Credit risk premium falls to lowest level in 7.5 years
Turkey’s credit risk premium fell to 233 basis points, its lowest level in 7.5 years. This figure is the lowest recorded since May 2018.
Ahlatçı Holding discovers four billion dollar gold mine
Ahlatçı Holding has discovered a mine with 927,000 ounces of gold reserves during its exploration in Yozgat Sarıkaya. The market value of the gold is estimated at approximately four billion dollars. The company expects the reserves to reach 1.5 million ounces once drilling is complete.
Ahmet Ahlatcı, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Ahlatcı Holding, announced that the first gold is planned to be extracted in early 2027 and that 1,000 people will be working at the site.
November record in the automotive sector
The automobile and light commercial vehicle market grew by 10.16 per cent in the January-November period. Car sales increased by 10.96 per cent compared to the same period last year, reaching 938,177 units in the 11-month period. During the same period, light commercial vehicle sales rose by 7.13 per cent to 238,603 units.
World Bank: Global financing gap at 50-year high
The World Bank reported that the difference between principal and interest payments on external debt and new financing in developing countries will reach $741 billion in the 2022-2024 period, the highest level in 50 years. According to the World Bank’s International Debt Report, developing countries restructured $90 billion in external debt in 2024, the highest figure since 2010.
Arms companies break record after record
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the total revenue of the world’s 100 largest arms and military services companies reached $679 billion in 2024, an increase of 5.9 per cent. Wars and tensions around the world have helped arms companies increase their profits. In Turkey, the Mechanical and Chemical Industry (MKE) entered the list of the world’s 100 largest arms manufacturers for the first time. In 2024, the total revenue of five Turkish companies reached $10.1 billion. SIPRI researchers stated, ‘Last year, global arms revenues reached their highest level in history thanks to high demand.’
Starbucks strike: Support from Mamdani and Sanders
In the US, more than a thousand unionised workers at 65 Starbucks coffee shops, and around 12,000 employees in total, went on strike nationwide due to a collective bargaining impasse. New York’s socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, and independent Senator Bernie Sanders visited to show their support for the action, dubbed the ‘Red Cup Rebellion’. During the strike, Starbucks agreed to pay millions of dollars in compensation and fines. Starbucks agreed to pay approximately $35 million in compensation over allegations that it did not provide fixed working hours to more than 15,000 employees in New York and reduced their shifts without justification. The company will also pay $3.4 million in administrative fines and commit to complying with the city’s ‘Fair Work Week’ law.
The EU will cease importing gas from Russia by the end of autumn 2027
European Union institutions have agreed to phase out imports of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia by autumn 2027. The EU Council announced that an agreement had been reached in negotiations between EU member states and European Parliament (EP) representatives on a plan to end natural gas imports from Russia.
The statement indicated that action was being taken within the framework of the roadmap prepared to end dependence on Russian energy, stating that LNG imports from Russia would be banned in a gradual and legally binding manner by the end of 2026, and pipeline gas imports by autumn 2027.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “This is a historic day for our Union. We are turning a new page.”
Von der Leyen said that the EU’s imports of LNG and pipeline natural gas from Russia had fallen from 45 percent to 13 per cent, while coal imports had fallen from 51 percent to zero and crude oil imports from 26 percent to 2 percent.