Levent Gürses
In December, millions of workers and employers turned their attention to the Minimum Wage Determination Commission and the new figure that will be valid in 2026. The current minimum wage is still 8,000 lira below the poverty line, and it will be very difficult to exceed this threshold in the new year. Therefore, it is expected that record-breaking enforcement and personal debts will continue this trend in 2026.
According to research by KAMU-AR, the R&D unit of the United Public Sector Workers’ Confederation, the poverty line rose by 266 lira in November to reach 30,061 lira, while the poverty line, including food, clothing, housing and transport, reached 93,697 lira due to price increases in other expenditure groups. The poverty line exceeded the net minimum wage of 22,104 lira applied throughout the year by 8,061 lira, while the sum of four minimum wages remained 5,281 lira below the poverty line.
Despite a 30 per cent increase in the minimum wage, it will remain 13 per cent below the poverty line
In this case, it is almost impossible for the newly determined minimum wage to exceed the poverty line…
Economist İris Cibre prepared three scenarios regarding the minimum wage, writing that even with a 30 per cent increase, the minimum wage would start 2.81 per cent below the poverty line in 2026 and end 12.89 per cent below it.
Iris Cibre’s calculation, published on social media, is as follows:
“As of this month, even if the poverty line increases by just 1% each month and the minimum wage is increased by:
20%, the poverty line will be 10.3% below the minimum wage in 2026;
25%, it will be 6.55% below;
30%, it will still be 2.81% below.
By 2026, with a 20% increase, the poverty line would be 19.6% below the minimum wage,
with a 25% increase, 16.24% below,
and even with a 30% increase, 12.89% below.”
Iris Cibre said:
‘Since March 2024, without exception, every month, the poverty line has been above the minimum wage and widening the gap. Such erosion has never been seen in our history. If only one year had been sacrificed for growth, everything could be very different today. Ordinary citizens are paying the heaviest price.’
Estimates vary between 20% and 30%
There are different estimates regarding the minimum wage. Sinan Burhan, Editor-in-Chief of Millet newspaper, pointed to a 25% increase regarding the minimum wage, stating, ‘According to information I received from Ankara.’
Can Coşkun, a writer for Korkusuz, wrote that according to “clear” information he obtained from sources in Ankara, the minimum wage would not exceed 28,000 lira. Coşkun wrote, “Combining the information I received from the Ministry and Beştepe, I understand that the minimum wage will not exceed 28,000 lira. Under current conditions, a 20-25 per cent increase is anticipated. Unless President Erdoğan intervenes, there is no possibility of more than that.‘
Economist Muhammet Bayram, meanwhile, stated that a 30 per cent increase in the minimum wage is being proposed and that, if a welfare share is added, the amount could reach 30,000 Turkish Lira.”
According to a report in the pro-government Sabah newspaper, Bayram pointed to the rise in year-end inflation forecasts and recalled that the increase in insurance premiums had been announced as 28 per cent. Stating that this rate serves as an important reference for the new minimum wage, Bayram shared the following baseline scenarios: “The minimum wage will be 28,293 TL with a 28 per cent increase, 28,735 TL with a 30 per cent increase, and 29,177 TL with a 32 per cent increase. Currently, a 30% increase in the minimum wage is the most prominent option.”
HSBC Bank: Minimum wage to increase by 20%, foreign exchange to remain flat
HSBC Bank’s report on Turkey emphasised that political uncertainty is the biggest risk factor for 2026. As the economic stability programme enters its third year, it was noted that the programme’s progress is being viewed positively by the markets. While it was noted that price stability has not been fully achieved, it was stated that the economy is being managed under a ‘soft landing’ scenario and that financial risks have been reduced.
HSBC’s forecasts are based on three critical assumptions:
Minimum Wage: It is assumed that the minimum wage will increase by approximately 20 per cent in 2026.
Exchange Rate: The real effective exchange rate is expected to remain largely flat throughout 2026.
Inflation Expectations: It is assumed that there will be no sudden and sharp changes in inflation expectations.
7 out of 10 people are in debt: Enforcement files reach historic high
According to data shared on the National Judicial Network Project (UYAP) portal, affiliated with the Ministry of Justice, enforcement files have reached a historic high.
It has been revealed that 7 out of 10 people living in Turkey are in debt and that the number of enforcement files received this year has already exceeded last year’s number by more than 100,000. Credit debt, which stood at 2 trillion 19 billion TL at the beginning of the year, rose to 2 trillion 748 billion TL, while credit card debt, which stood at 1 trillion 840 billion TL, rose to 2 trillion 617 billion TL. During this period, receivables under collection rose from 116.4 billion TL to 223.5 billion TL.
Seventy per cent of Turkish society is in debt. Credit card debt is the most common type of debt; 77 per cent of debtors have current credit card debt. Fifty-two per cent of those who allocate at least half of their income to debt repayment, while 48 per cent of those in debt experience frequent or constant payment difficulties. As a result, citizens have become unable to pay their debts. According to data from the Interbank Risk Centre, the number of individuals with personal loans or credit card debt has reached 42.4 million. In the first half of 2025, the number of individuals unable to make personal loan or credit card payments exceeded 1.2 million.
IMF Turkey report: Support for the economic programme continues
The IMF’s Turkey report has been released. While renewing its support for the economic management of the programme being implemented, the IMF stated that the slow decline in inflation has prolonged the period of economic vulnerability to risks. The report stated, ‘The economic management has achieved significant successes with the strengthening of reserves, maintaining growth, a gradual decline in inflation and increased confidence in the Turkish lira. Risks have decreased compared to last year. High real interest rates, macro-prudential policies and the decline in the budget deficit played a key role this year.’
Prof. Dr. Hayri Kozanoğlu, in his commentary titled ‘IMF Continues to Support Şimşek’ in Birgün newspaper, states, “The IMF has consistently supported Şimşek’s austerity programme from the outset. This is because tight monetary and fiscal policies, which entail cuts in labour income, embody all the characteristics of the well-known Washington Consensus. The IMF is the IMF we know. Therefore, it continues to stand behind an austerity programme that shifts the burden of economic problems onto the broad labour sector. It is clear that they will increase their criticism if the programme is relaxed within the scope of “election economics”, especially if Şimşek’s team is replaced.”
Central Bank Governor Karahan: Inflation is like a virus
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said in a live broadcast on the bank’s X account, ‘Inflation is actually like a virus. When it stays in the body for a long time, it becomes difficult to get rid of it. It may take a little longer, but we are applying the right prescription.’
Karahan noted that the Central Bank has three priority objectives in terms of macro-financial stability: correcting the reserve position, reducing the Currency-Protected Deposits (KKM) balance, and establishing disinflation to bring inflation down to single digits. Underlining that they have first established a tight monetary policy in line with this objective, Karahan stated that they aim to first bring inflation down to single digits and then stabilise it at 5 per cent. Karahan said that the impact of policy on the slowdown in inflation has been very clear so far, adding that they have limited inflation to 75 per cent with the measures they have taken.
Central Bank survey: Inflation expectations rise
The Central Bank published its November 2025 ‘Sectoral Inflation Expectations’ data. In November, 12-month-ahead annual inflation expectations rose by 0.23 points compared to the previous month, reaching 23.49 per cent for market participants. For the real sector, it decreased by 0.6 points to 35.70 per cent, while for households, it fell by 2.15 points to 52.24 per cent. The proportion of households expecting inflation to fall over the next 12 months decreased by 1.67 points compared to the previous month, registering at 24.83 per cent.
Confidence in economic management hits rock bottom
ASAL Research conducted a new survey on the economy with 2,015 people in 26 provinces between 1-9 November 2025. Participants were asked, ‘Do you have confidence in economic management?’ Of those who responded, 34.4% said ‘I have no confidence’ and 36.0% chose ‘I do not have confidence’. Based on these results, the total distrust rate was calculated at 70.4%. The percentage of those who said ‘I trust’ was measured at 14.0%, while the percentage of those who answered ‘I trust very much’ remained at 2.6%. 2.8% of the survey participants selected the ‘No opinion/No answer’ option.
Confidence in the economy failed to exceed the critical 100 threshold
TÜİK announced the economic confidence index data for November. According to this, the index was 98.2 in October and increased by 1.3 per cent to 99.5 in November. The consumer confidence index rose by 1.6 per cent on a monthly basis in November to 85. During the same period, the real sector confidence index increased by 1.2 per cent to 103.2. The service sector confidence index also rose by 1 per cent to 111.8. The retail trade sector confidence index rose by 0.9 per cent to 114.2, while the construction sector confidence index rose by 1.5 per cent to 84.9. The consumer confidence index for October had fallen by 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis to 83.6.
Revaluation on the Official Gazette: 25% increase in taxes, penalties and fees
The General Communiqué on Tax Procedure Law prepared by the Revenue Administration Presidency of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance has been published in the Official Gazette. The revaluation rate for 2025 has been announced as 25.49%. Many items, from IMEI registration fees to passport fees, from overseas exit fees to income tax exemptions, are expected to increase by 25.49% in January 2026.
For example, the IMEI registration fee paid for phones brought from abroad will reach 57,241 lira, which is almost the price of a new phone. The overseas departure tax will rise to 1,255 lira, while passport fees will also be steep. The fee for a passport valid for more than three years will reach 14,146 lira. Obtaining a driving licence will become more difficult, with the fee for a Class B driving licence rising to 7,122 lira.
In a statement, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said that they were working to increase taxes and fees at a lower rate, taking inflation targets into account rather than the revaluation rate.
10-month foreign trade deficit up 13% to $75 billion
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), exports in October increased by 2.0 per cent compared to the same month last year, reaching 23 billion 941 million dollars. Imports increased by 7.2 per cent, reaching 31 billion 521 million dollars. The foreign trade deficit increased by 27.6 per cent compared to the same month last year, rising to 7 billion 580 million dollars.
In the January-October period, exports increased by 3.9 per cent to $224.469 billion, while imports increased by 6.1 per cent to $299.152 billion. The foreign trade deficit increased by 13.3 per cent in the January-October period, rising from 65 billion 913 million dollars to 74 billion 683 million dollars. The ratio of exports to imports was 76.6 per cent in the January-October period of 2024, but fell to 75.0 per cent in the same period of 2025.
The 12-month foreign trade deficit from October to October reached 91 billion dollars, despite high exports, due to the rapid increase in imports of investment goods and raw materials. Gold imports reached their highest level in the last 2.5 years, amounting to 2.74 billion dollars.
Slight increase in capacity utilisation
The Central Bank announced capacity utilisation rates in the manufacturing industry for November. The seasonally adjusted Capacity Utilisation Rate (CUR-SA) for the manufacturing industry as a whole increased by 0.1 points compared to the previous month, reaching 74.1 per cent.
Capacity utilisation in the textile sector was only 69.8 per cent in November. The leather sector also remained at a similar level of 62.6 per cent. Capacity utilisation in the printing sector stood at 65.6 per cent. The picture continued to deteriorate for durable consumer goods, which refer to the manufacture of white goods and similar products. Capacity utilisation in durable consumer goods remained at 69.9%. The highest capacity utilisation was observed in wood products, where the level reached 84.4%. The rate was 72.4% for non-durable consumer goods and 75.2% for intermediate goods.
Arçelik is closing its factory in Thailand, production will cease on 1 December
Arçelik, a subsidiary of Koç Holding, announced that it will cease production at its refrigerator plant in Thailand. In a statement made to KAP, the company announced that production at the Rayong facility will cease as of 1 December. It was emphasised that the factory’s production capacity will be transferred to Arçelik’s other facilities, that the decision is not expected to have a significant impact on the company’s total production and sales, and that no negative effects are anticipated in terms of business continuity. The employment contracts of 411 employees will be terminated, and severance and notice pay totalling approximately $3 million will be paid.
Meat imports reach $410 million
With red meat prices hitting record highs, the government’s solution of importing meat to lower prices has backfired. According to a report by Birgün, the Meat and Milk Board (ESK), which is at the centre of corruption allegations, imported 410 million dollars worth of meat and 927 million 64 thousand 286 dollars worth of live animals between January and October this year. The 293 million dollar portion of the meat imports came from purchases originating in Poland, which has been at the centre of the scandals.
EST rejected ABB’s request to distribute cheap meat
It has emerged that the Meat and Milk Board (ESK) has twice rejected applications from the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality (ABB) to provide citizens with cheap meat. According to a report by Birgün, ESK’s sole retail outlet in Ankara, located on Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu Street, was closed in 2023, citing the approximately 700,000 TL monthly rent it paid as the reason. Following this closure, access to affordable meat became significantly more difficult for low-income citizens. During this process, ABB offered to allocate free/rent-free premises when necessary to continue the sale of cheap meat; however, all of ABB’s initiatives were rejected by ESK. ESK rejected the application with an official letter stating that ‘the request cannot be met’.
The proportion of elderly people will reach 16%, reform cannot be postponed
Economist Şenol Babuşcu drew attention to the increase in the elderly population, stating, “It is not possible to continue with the current system. Comprehensive reform in social security and elderly care can no longer be postponed.‘ In a social media post titled ’Ageing Turkey: Alarm Bells for SGK,‘ Babuşcu stated, ’Elderly population: 11% today, 16.3% in 2040. The elderly dependency ratio will rise from 9% to 28% (28 pensioners for every 100 workers). The SGK deficit is covered by the budget every year, and the risk to sustainability is increasing.”
The number of working retirees tripled in 5 years
The number of people who are registered as working at a workplace despite being retired rose from 746,766 in 2020 to 945,700 in 2022. In 2023, due to the EYT effect, the number of working retirees jumped significantly, reaching 1,865,000. This upward trend continued in 2024 and 2025, with the number of retired employees reaching 2,156,000 as of June 2025. As a result, the proportion of retired employees among the total number of compulsorily insured employees rose to 9.2%.
1.2 billion dollars of investment is required for electric vehicle charging
While the charging infrastructure is rapidly developing in parallel with the growth of the electric vehicle market in Turkey, it has been stated that approximately 1.2 billion dollars of additional investment is required to achieve the 2035 targets.
Emobilite Operators Association Chairman Berkay Somalı emphasised the rapid growth trend, stating, “The number of electric cars registered for traffic, which was only 565 in 2015, reached 332,010 as of October 2025. The number of charging sockets, which was 22,000 at the end of 2024, reached approximately 37,000 as of October 2025, meaning that approximately 15,000 new sockets were installed in one year.”
Somalı stated that, according to EPDK’s medium-term projections, the targets are 143,000 charging sockets for 2030 and 273,000 for 2035, adding, “These targets mean a requirement for approximately 240,000 new sockets. It is estimated that a total of approximately 1.2 billion dollars in additional investment will be required to achieve the 2035 targets.”
Farmers’ debt exceeds 1 trillion
Minister of Agriculture and Forestry İbrahim Yumaklı noted an increase in farmers’ use of agricultural credit, with farmers’ total debt exceeding 1.1 trillion TL. According to a report by Nefes newspaper based on data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, farmers’ total debt reached 1 trillion 109 billion 858 million TL. The amount of debt that has been taken into follow-up because it could not be paid was 10 billion 303 million 927 thousand TL. Responding to questions from MPs in the commission, Minister Yumaklı stated that there has been an increase in farmers’ use of agricultural credit, saying, “In 2024, 633,542 of our producers used 422.7 billion lira in discounted credit. By the end of October 2025, 861,000 producers had utilised 527 billion in discounted loans. On average, 70% of the interest was covered by the state.”
Property prices in China have been falling for four years, and measures are coming
With housing prices in China having been on a downward trend for four years, the Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee is expected to hold a meeting in the coming days and announce incentives for the housing sector, such as a reduction in interest rates. According to a report by Nefes newspaper, the housing sector occupies a central position in the economy; the slowdown in real estate is affecting related sectors such as cement and steel. The country’s economic model, social structure and even political stability are strongly linked to the housing sector. The share of the housing sector, which accounted for nearly 30 per cent of GDP in 2015, has fallen to around 15 per cent following the contraction in the property market.
Deutsche Bank: The dollar will fall, the price of gold could exceed $5,000 per ounce
Deutsche Bank has updated its forecast that the dollar will lose value in the coming period; the trade-weighted dollar index is expected to decline by approximately 6% by the end of 2026. It is noted that the euro/dollar parity is expected to rise to 1.25 by the end of 2026.
Deutsche Bank has also revised its gold price forecast for 2026 upwards. The bank has raised its average price forecast from $4,000 per ounce to $4,450. The bank expects the gold price to rise to an average of $5,150 in 2027.
Other important news of the week in brief:
- The number of companies closing down is rapidly increasing. According to TOBB, in October, Companies established: 10,505 (increase of 7.6%), Companies closed: 2,668 (increase of 15.1%). In the first 10 months: Companies established: Decrease of 1.3%, Companies closed: Decrease of 10.7%.
- The £4 billion investment process at Damascus Airport has officially begun. Kalyon and Cengiz Construction have moved to the implementation phase of the modernisation project with an international consortium.
- Global warming and drought are threatening the food supply chain by reducing the supply of basic agricultural products. Ülker CEO Özgür Kölükfakı points out that climate-related risks are increasing price pressure, particularly for cocoa, nuts, and vegetables and fruits.
- Turkey’s energy import bill fell by 3.4 per cent year-on-year in October to $4.8 billion.
- Renowned investor Michael Burry announced that he has taken a short position on Nvidia and Palantir. Burry argued that the artificial intelligence giants have inflated their profits by spreading the loss in value of their assets over years, which could lead to heavy losses in the future.
- From 2028 onwards, homeowners in the UK whose properties are valued at over £2 million will pay an additional annual tax of at least £2,500 on top of the current council tax. The government’s move to reduce income inequality has sparked debate.
- In the US, jobless claims for the week ending 22 November came in below expectations at 216,000. The expectation was 225,000. The number of claims previously announced for the week ending 15 November, as 220,000, was revised to 222,000.
- The German economy experienced stagnation in the third quarter due to weak exports and consumption. The country’s seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP recorded zero growth in the July-September period of this year compared to the previous quarter.