Can Baydarol
Unless US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack is declared persona non grata as soon as possible, he will continue to occupy our minds. The announcement that his posts in Syria and Iraq had been terminated, followed by his appointment to this region by US President Donald Trump himself with full authority, as if he were a regional governor, led us first to ask whether there was a rift within the US administration, and then to realise that not much would change until Trump leaves office.
Let us briefly recall what Barrack said in his statements that caused such an outcry among many of us:
- Erdoğan wants legitimacy; let us, as the US, grant him this legitimacy. In other words, according to Barrack, the legitimacy of the person who will govern the country does not stem from being elected, but from the US’s choice.
- Democracy is a luxury for the Middle East; the best type of leader is a firm yet fair autocrat.
- In this region, Turkey, Iraq and Syria must together create a centre of prosperity and attraction.
What we gather from these three generalisations is that, particularly if Turkey is persuaded to sign the Abraham Accords, plans are being drawn up for a secure corridor for Israel. Naturally, the Kurdish element must also be included in this planning.
Naturally, what could cast a shadow over these expectations is the possibility that Turkey, under current economic conditions, will be forced into an election sooner or later, and that the preferred ‘firm yet fair’ authority may be pushed out of power. In this scenario, as far as we can gather from rumours, a similar 20-billion-dollar SWAP (currency swap) agreement to the one previously made for Argentina is being considered between Turkey and the US. The aim can be summarised as preserving the lira’s credibility ahead of a potential election, reducing the risk premium, and providing the Turkish public with a sense of artificial prosperity before the vote.
This possibility has inevitably sparked immediate debate over whether a snap election is on the cards. Particularly whilst the absolute nullification operation targeting the CHP, Özgür Özel’s loss of power, and the uncertainties surrounding his move to establish a new party are unfolding, the aim is to win the election by invoking the classic motto “they can’t even manage two sheep!” and the perception that “only we can fix the economy!”.
Of course, there are many facts to challenge in this scenario. The plan to split the CHP and weaken Özgür Özel, as we noted in our previous article, has so far come to nothing. We summarised the situation as a lack of understanding of sociology and social psychology. Far from weakening, Özel has consolidated the entire opposition and continues to do so.
On the other hand, does the US really want to enter into a SWAP agreement with Turkey? In this context, I must admit that I am not an expert on the US. However, academics whose opinions I trust emphasise that within the US, setting aside the Republican-Democratic divide, there are significant differences of opinion even amongst Republicans.
So let’s say a Turkey-US SWAP agreement is concluded; what happens afterwards?
In this context, the first thing that comes to mind is the words spoken by the President years ago: ‘He who borrows, takes orders!’
So, what orders will come our way from the US? I suppose the words of Barrack, which we briefly mentioned in the introduction to this article, are sufficiently illuminating.
Naturally, these developments have led us to recall much older events as well. Were there not Ottoman officials who, on the path to the War of Independence, desired US mandate rule as the lesser of two evils? Similarly, Barrack’s dislike of the Treaty of Lausanne and his praise of the Treaty of Sèvres somehow retain their fresh place in our memories. The US may be seeking new states or territories in the region in line with Israel’s demands. However, I hope that if they were to read up on and learn a little about the history of the region and the Republic of Turkey, they would realise that these dreams cannot come to fruition.
Undoubtedly, whilst thinking within an international framework, we must not overlook the behaviour of our northern neighbour Russia and China, a new potential hegemon in the region that does not hide its intentions. Has the US-Israel alliance learnt enough lessons from the events unfolding in the context of Iran?
I cannot help but ask myself whether I am being unnecessarily naive in my cautious optimism.