A climate report published in the United Kingdom has warned that homes will need air-conditioning to cope with projected levels of global warming.
As recently reported by The Guardian, an estimated 4 million homes in the country currently have air conditioning; this figure is double that of three years ago. However, the Climate Change Committee, the UK’s independent climate change advisory body, stated in the report that this is insufficient to protect people from rapidly rising temperatures and heatwaves that are becoming increasingly frequent and severe.
The Committee estimates that approximately 92 per cent of existing homes are at risk of overheating during a heatwave, and that this will disproportionately threaten the groups most vulnerable to the heat. These groups include children, the elderly, pregnant women and those living in inadequate or poorly ventilated housing. The Committee emphasised that “the UK was built for a climate that no longer exists and will become increasingly distant in the coming years”, stressing that the country must be prepared for a 2 °C rise in temperature by mid-century compared to pre-industrial levels. According to UN projections, the world is currently heading towards a temperature rise of 2.6–3.1 °C this century.
According to the report, to ensure people’s safety and reduce heat-related mortality rates, it is necessary to improve cooling in buildings through both active measures, such as the installation of air conditioning, and passive cooling measures, such as natural shading. This applies particularly to people’s homes, care homes and hospitals.
The committee has called on the government to ensure that air conditioning is installed in all care homes and hospitals within the next ten years, and in all schools within the next 25 years. It also recommended that at least 30 per cent of the most vulnerable urban households should have at least one cool room.
The report also noted that, given the significant environmental footprint of air-conditioning systems, heat pumps – which provide both low-carbon heating and cooling, particularly in new buildings – should be considered. However, in the UK, heat pumps are rarely installed due to factors such as high initial installation costs – despite government subsidies; high electricity prices compared to gas prices, which increase running costs; and a lack of the insulation required for these systems to operate efficiently, particularly in older homes.
People without access to air conditioning – a very large proportion of the world’s population – are particularly at risk during extreme heat events. Whilst approximately 90 per cent of households in the US and 60 per cent of households in China have some form of air-conditioning system, this figure is alarmingly low in rapidly warming regions such as Europe (10 per cent) and India, the world’s most populous country (8 per cent). In sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, this figure is even lower.
The UK is currently experiencing an exceptionally early heatwave that is shattering records. The country broke a new daily temperature record for May this year, and this record was equalled when temperatures in London reached 35.1 °C during the same period. According to the Met Office, the record for the highest daily minimum temperature in May was also broken on three consecutive days.
According to the National Meteorological Service, climate change is dramatically increasing the frequency of extreme heat events in the UK. Peak temperatures of 30 °C used to be a rare occurrence in the country and were extremely rare in May – having been recorded only a few times since 1900. Back in December, the Met Office had warned that 2026 was likely to rank among the country’s four hottest years on record.
Professor Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said: “The hallmarks of climate change are evident in these record-breaking temperatures everywhere.” Otto added, “Seeing 35 °C in the UK in spring is certainly surprising, but the science is very clear: climate change is making these heatwaves hotter, longer and much more frequent,” emphasising that such high temperatures “were once exceptional even during the hottest part of summer”.