Levent Gürses
This week, we’ll be taking a closer look at a commodity that has taken everyone by surprise in global markets. I’m talking about ‘gold, the safe haven’ during periods of economic crisis, geopolitical tension, war and severe market turbulence. Yes, gold took everyone by surprise during the US-Israel–Iran conflict that began at the end of February. Gold prices began to fall almost as soon as the Iran conflict began.
Everyone is searching for the answer to this question: how did gold, the safe haven, lose value whilst there was a risk of nuclear war? It appears that whilst retail investors were buying gold at high prices due to the conflict, institutional investors began selling for various reasons, effectively selling gold to retail investors at high prices to secure their profits.
With the outbreak of the war, the price of an ounce of gold fell from the 5,000-dollar mark to 4,075 dollars
Let’s take a look at the prices; gold got off to a very fast start in 2026. At the start of the year, it stood at 4,330 dollars per ounce, rising sharply to 5,400 dollars on 28 January. It then hovered around the 5,000-dollar mark. On 28 February, US President Donald Trump launched an attack on Iran; the following working day, 2 March, the price rose to $5,327, after which a decline began amidst the war. By the end of March, the price had fallen to the $4,500 level.
Although it rose to $4,830 by mid-April, this brief rise was followed by a sharper decline starting in June. The price of an ounce of gold reached $4,075 on 10 June. It closed at $4,008 on 30 June and has been fluctuating around the $4,100 level throughout July as of the 10th.
Is it just high oil prices, inflationary pressures, the strengthening of the dollar and interest rate rises?
It was noted that the rise in oil prices amid the war was causing inflationary pressures, which in turn would lead the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates and the dollar to appreciate, causing gold to lose value as a result. With the end of the war and the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the parties, oil prices fell sharply, yet gold lost even more value. This time, expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates to curb inflation have come to the fore.
The decline in gold prices during a period of serious geopolitical tensions and the risk of a nuclear war, such as the Iran-US conflict, is not driven solely by economic factors. Here, the closing of positions by gold-backed ETF funds, hedge funds and major institutional investors must also be taken into account… Gold prices at their peak levels created opportunities for realised profits, particularly for institutional investors (hedge funds, etc.).
Yes, undoubtedly; the rise in oil prices, driven by the war and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, has heightened inflation expectations on a global scale. In this environment, central banks (particularly the Fed) have opted to maintain high interest rates for a longer period to keep inflation under control. As gold is an asset that does not generate a return, investors in a high-interest-rate environment have preferred to sell gold, shifting towards safe-haven assets that offer interest income.
“The sell-off in gold on the day the war began shows that real returns have replaced fear”
However, due to the ‘safe haven’ perception, the rapid surge in demand from retail investors during the initial panic at the outbreak of the war caused prices to rise back to their peak. This, combined with institutional and professional investors using this liquidity to sell (realising profits), resulted in a scenario where retail investors were buying at the peak.
On this subject, news sites and agencies such as investing.com, Reuters and CNBC-e published analyses examining this contradictory situation by asking the question: “Is this market speculation, or a macroeconomic necessity?” A good example is the analysis titled “Gold’s War-Day Sell-Off Shows Real Returns Have Replaced Fear”, published on 8 July on www.investing.com…
Where are gold prices heading? The banks’ forecasts…
So, what happens next? More importantly, has gold’s role as a “safe haven” come to an end?
Whilst the ongoing war in Iran and tensions in the Middle East continue to drive up oil prices, they are also keeping global inflation fears alive. For this reason, J.P. Morgan experts predict that the Fed may keep interest rate hikes or a hawkish stance on the table in response to energy-driven inflation. Gold, which does not yield interest, may remain under pressure in the short term as institutional funds shift their focus to cash and high-yielding bonds.
In times of war and uncertainty, major hedge funds sell gold to offset losses in other markets (such as the debt/bubble risks in technology shares) or to strengthen their cash positions.
Major investment banks note that whilst prices may fall below $4,000 in the short term, the support level at $4,059 remains significant, and a drop below this could intensify selling pressure.
However, it is anticipated that this sharp short-term decline and correction will not be permanent, and that structural risks will drive gold prices back up in the medium to long term.
Most banks have lowered their year-end gold price forecasts
Let’s take a look at the year-end gold price forecasts from global investment banks: JPMorgan lowered its year-end forecast last week, which it had maintained at $6,000 for some time, to $4,545.
Goldman Sachs, whilst maintaining its expectation of a structural uptrend, has lowered its year-end target from the previously announced $5,400 to $4,900, though it does not foresee any significant change in gold’s long-term outlook.
UBS views the recent decline as temporary and forecasts that the price of gold per ounce could rise back to the $5,200 level over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley similarly predicts that gold could reach the $5,200 level in the second half of 2026. However, the bank emphasises that for this scenario to materialise, investor interest in ETFs must be reignited.
Bank of America is more cautious; it forecasts that gold will stand at around $4,800 by the end of 2026, due to weak investor demand and the Fed’s tight monetary policy. The bank has also lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 to $4,360 per ounce.
HSBC highlights another issue, stating that “the risks posed by rising budget deficits and public debt on a global scale will be the biggest factor driving a structural rise in gold prices in the long term”.
Decision-makers at the Fed are divided over interest rate hikes…
Ultimately, central bank policies – and in particular the Fed’s stance on interest rates – will be decisive for gold prices. The latest FOMC meeting minutes, released last week (8 July), revealed that policymakers were sharply divided on interest rate hikes, with the vote standing at 9 to 8 (almost evenly split).
According to investment banks, the Fed’s policymakers are acting in line with economic data. According to J.P. Morgan, a fall in oil prices and the resulting decline in inflation could take the prospect of a Fed interest rate hike off the table. It is emphasised that as inflation enters a downward trend, the ‘dovish’ camp (those opposed to interest rate hikes) will gain the upper hand. Any improvement in inflation figures could also swiftly shift members who are currently undecided or hawkish towards the ‘hold’ or ‘cut’ camp.
In a speech last week, New York Fed President John Williams noted that inflation remains high and that they would remain data-dependent, whilst stating that he expects oil and energy prices to fall for the remainder of the year.
Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Bank, stated in the Global Strategy Report dated 9 July that, following the easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, they had revised their Brent crude oil forecasts down to $74 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, argued that lower fuel prices would provide relief to consumers and that, barring a new outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, US inflation may have peaked, which would ease the pressure on the Fed to tighten policy.
Central banks continue to buy gold on a large scale
Another crucial issue here is central bank gold purchases. Central banks’ substantial physical gold purchases – the single largest structural factor underpinning long-term upward support for gold prices – are set to continue in 2026.
According to the World Gold Council’s 2026 Central Bank Reserves Survey, published last week, 89 per cent of central bank executives forecast that global gold reserves will continue to rise over the next 12 months. Forty-five per cent of the central banks participating in the Council’s survey stated that they would directly increase their own institutions’ gold reserves. This figure represents the highest level in the survey’s history…
According to the World Gold Council’s report dated 4 July, Poland and China are by far the leading gold buyers in 2026. Poland was the country that purchased the most gold in May, with 18 tonnes. Poland was followed by China with 10 tonnes, Uzbekistan with 9 tonnes and Kazakhstan with 7 tonnes.
Glapinski, Governor of the National Bank of Poland, said that they had viewed the recent falls in price as buying opportunities, purchasing 82 tonnes of gold since the start of the year, and that their target was to reach 700 tonnes.
With its 10-tonne purchase in May, China has maintained its position as a net gold buyer for 20 consecutive months. According to a statement from the People’s Bank of China, its gold reserves rose by 480,000 ounces last month to 75.44 million ounces. This marked the highest monthly gold purchase since October 2023.Uzbekistan has purchased 33 tonnes and Kazakhstan 20 tonnes of gold since the start of the year.Turkey, meanwhile, has been a seller during this period. The Central Bank sold 3 tonnes of gold in May and a total of 81 tonnes in the first five months of the year, citing reasons such as domestic market needs or liquidity management.Has gold’s safe-haven status come to an end?Our final question is this: Given all these developments, can we say that gold’s safe-haven status has come to an end?Absolutely not… On the contrary, this process demonstrates not that gold’s role as a safe haven has ended, but that this role is a long-term protective mechanism, whilst short-term price fluctuations are entirely related to technical and speculative dynamics in the financial markets.The most concrete evidence and reasons why gold has not lost this characteristic are as follows:* Record purchases by central banks that view holding dollars as risky: Central banks – the institutions best placed to analyse global risks – are busily accumulating physical gold to raise their gold reserves to the highest levels in history. In other words, governments still view gold as the ultimate insurance for the financial system.* The short-term ‘liquidity’ paradox: It is not unusual for gold to fall during major crises and wars. Gold experienced sharp declines during the 2008 global financial crisis and in the first weeks of the 2020 pandemic. This is not so much because it loses its safe-haven status, but rather because large funds are forced to sell gold—their most liquid and profitable asset—to cover massive losses in the stock market and other markets. Once this need for cash has been met, gold has always bounced back to set even stronger records.* The only asset immune to systemic risk: Whilst fiat currencies (the dollar, the euro, etc.) erode in the face of inflation, and even government bonds come under risk in scenarios such as the threat of nuclear war, gold remains the only asset backed by no government debt or liability, with zero risk of default.Other key developments this week include:Tensions in the Middle East have flared up again, but banks are expecting a fallAs tensions in the Middle East flared up again, following the US’s renewed bombing of Iran, the price of a barrel of Brent crude rose to as high as $78 at the close on Wednesday 8 July. It had stood at $72 on Monday. Prices subsequently eased, falling to $76.30 at the close on Thursday 9 July.
Banks are also updating their oil-related analyses. Whilst Goldman Sachs has noted that renewed tensions in Iran could disrupt the recovery in oil supply, Citigroup forecasts that the average price of Brent crude will stand at $75 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026.
According to Goldman Sachs’ forecasts, crude oil production in the Persian Gulf in June remained approximately 10.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs noted that the risks surrounding oil shipments from the Gulf of Basra and the price outlook are two-sided. Whilst it was stated that shipments are expected to recover by the end of July if negotiations continue, it was emphasised that oil flows could decline again should the talks fail and tanker attacks escalate.
Citigroup, meanwhile, forecast that Brent crude would average $70 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $65 throughout 2027. Citigroup stated that these forecasts were based on the assumption that a final agreement would be reached between the US and Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz would be fully reopened to shipping.
IMF July report: Turkey’s 2026 growth forecast revised down to 2.9 per cent
In the IMF’s July World Economic Outlook report, growth expectations for both the global and Turkish economies were revised downwards due to the economic impacts of the war in the Middle East. The IMF announced that it expects the Turkish economy to grow by 2.9 per cent in 2026 and 3.6 per cent in 2027. The April forecast had projected growth of 3.4 per cent in 2026 and 3.5 per cent in 2027. Thus, whilst the growth forecast for 2026 has been revised downwards, the outlook for 2027 has been revised upwards slightly.
Global growth forecasts have also been revised downwards
The report stated that the global economy is expected to grow by 3 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027. The April forecasts had projected that the global economy would grow by 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027. The July report highlighted that these growth rates fell short of the average of 3.5 per cent recorded during the 2024–2025 period.
Furthermore, it was forecast that headline global inflation would rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026, before falling back to 3.9 per cent in 2027.
The IMF stated that the slowdown in global growth stemmed from the economic impacts of the war in Iran, whilst developments in artificial intelligence and the widespread adoption of technology had offset part of this negative impact.
The report noted that risks to the economic outlook had become more balanced compared to April, although downside risks persisted; it warned that a renewed escalation of conflicts could lead to volatility in commodity prices, disruptions in supply chains and a deterioration in financial conditions.
The US is set to grow by 2.3 per cent, the Eurozone by 0.9 per cent and China by 4.6 per cent
The IMF maintained its 2026 growth forecast for the US economy at 2.3 per cent, whilst raising its 2027 forecast from 2.1 per cent to 2.2 per cent. For the Eurozone, the 2026 growth forecast was revised down from 1.1 per cent to 0.9 per cent, whilst the 2027 forecast was left unchanged at 1.2 per cent.
The report states that Germany’s 2026 growth forecast has been lowered from 0.8 per cent to 0.7 per cent, whilst the 2027 forecast has been reduced from 1.2 per cent to 1 per cent. The 2026 growth forecast for the Japanese economy was revised down from 0.7 per cent to 0.6 per cent, whilst the 2027 forecast was revised up from 0.6 per cent to 0.7 per cent.
The IMF has revised its growth forecast for the Chinese economy upwards. According to the report, the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 4.1 per cent in 2027. In the report published in April, these figures had been forecast at 4.4 per cent and 4 per cent respectively. India’s 2026 growth forecast was lowered from 6.5 per cent to 6.4 per cent, whilst the 2027 forecast was raised from 6.5 per cent to 6.7 per cent.
Interest rate warning from Commerzbank: The CBRT has no room left for cuts
Following the release of TÜİK’s June data, Commerzbank, which has been scrutinising the Turkish economy, emphasised in its latest report that the Central Bank would be unable to cut interest rates in the near term due to the persistently high underlying trend in inflation. The report included the following statements:
“The relatively low headline figure of 0.9 per cent month-on-month corresponds to an annualised headline inflation rate of approximately 24 per cent when both headline and core inflation are annualised. Whilst this indicates a marked improvement compared to the months when the spike caused by the war in Iran was evident, the current pace of price rises is still a long way from offering a credible path towards single-digit inflation or the CBRT’s long-term target of 5 per cent.”
Europe puts the brakes on exporters: Markets in Germany, France and the United Kingdom are contracting
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) has published the June 2026 Manufacturing Sector Export Markets Climate Index, which reflects business conditions in the Turkish manufacturing sector’s main export markets. Although the index showed a modest rise in June, it indicated that the recovery in export markets continued to be weak. The index rose to 50.4 in June, up from 50.3 in May. Readings above 50 signal an improvement in the export climate, whilst those below 50 indicate a deterioration.
In June, production continued to contract in Germany, the United Kingdom and France – three of Turkey’s five largest export markets. Whilst the rate of decline in production slowed in Germany and France, economic activity in the United Kingdom recorded its sharpest fall since April 2025.
DİSK-AR: Minimum wage has lost five thousand TL in value against inflation
DİSK-AR published its “Inflation Bulletin” following the release of TÜİK’s June inflation figures. The bulletin noted that, according to TÜİK data, annual inflation stood at 32.11 per cent. It was also noted that six-month inflation, compared to December, stood at 17.76 per cent. Emphasising that the high inflation seen in recent years has had a negative impact on the purchasing power of low-income groups, the bulletin stated that, as of June, the minimum wage had lost 4,986 TL in value against inflation, whilst the lowest pension had eroded by 3,552 TL over the same period.
Wages eroded by inflation and taxes: Losses exceeded 15,000 lira
DİSK-AR’s “Wage Loss Monitoring Report” dated June 2026 revealed that, due to high inflation and unfair tax brackets, millions of insured workers lost a total of 890 billion lira in the first five months of the year. The data, which indicated that nearly a quarter of average gross wages had been eroded, emphasised that all workers, from those on the minimum wage to the highest earners, were being crushed under the weight of their tax bills.
The report drew attention to the wage losses experienced by insured workers due to high inflation and the tax system. According to DİSK-AR’s calculations, the total loss incurred by insured workers due to inflation and taxation in the first five months of 2026 (January–May) amounted to at least 889 billion 991 million TL.
According to the report, in calculations covering approximately 16.7 million insured workers, the cumulative impact of inflation on wages was calculated at 458.8 billion TL. The total cost of income and stamp duties amounted to 431.2 billion TL, bringing the total loss to 889 billion 991 million TL. It was noted that this figure represents a 46.8 per cent increase compared to the loss of 606.1 billion TL recorded in the first five months of 2025.
It was stated that, as of May 2026, the loss attributable to income and stamp duties amounted to 7,079 TL due to entering the higher tax bracket.
Added to this was a loss of 8,458 TL resulting from the 16.61 per cent inflation rate over the first five months. Consequently, it was calculated that 15,537 TL of the average worker’s gross wage of 64,985 TL had been eroded by tax and inflation.
The 5.1 million pensioners receiving the lowest monthly pension remained 12,000 lira below the poverty line
With the adoption of the omnibus bill in Parliament, the 17.76 per cent increase applied to the lowest monthly wages for workers and Bağ-Kur pensioners will raise these payments to 23,552 lira.
Consequently, the number of people receiving the lowest pension will rise from 4.9 million to 5.1 million, and 5.1 million people will be trying to make ends meet on 23,552 lira – well below the poverty line – until January. When those receiving slightly higher monthly payments are included, the figure rises considerably further. According to the Turkish Confederation of Trade Unions’ (Türk-İş) June 2026 Poverty and Hunger Threshold survey, the poverty line has reached 35,759 TL. The lowest pension is 12,207 lira below the poverty line.
Small business owners are closing their shutters; there has been a sharp drop in the number of newly opened businesses
In Turkey, the number of small business premises opened in the first five months of the year fell, whilst the number of closures rose. According to data compiled from the Trade Register statistics of the Confederation of Turkish Tradesmen and Artisans (TESK), the number of premises opened between January and May fell by 9.66 per cent compared to the same period last year, whilst the number of closures rose by 8.13 per cent. The number of small business premises opened in the first five months of the year fell from 134,234 in the same period last year to 121,261. Meanwhile, the number of premises that closed during the same period rose from 49,905 to 53,088.
The figures for May also pointed to a slowdown in the number of new business openings. The number of small business premises opened in May last year stood at 27,438; this figure fell by 29.24 per cent to 19,414 in the same month this year. The number of premises that closed, meanwhile, fell by 20.6 per cent from 9,130 to 7,244.
The number of registered small business owners in Turkey stands at 2,286,000, representing 2.66 per cent of the country’s population of 86,092,000.
TGSD: Macroeconomic policies are the main obstacle to our competitiveness
According to the “Global Competitiveness Matrix” report prepared by the Turkish Garment Manufacturers’ Association (TGSD), which analyses the ready-to-wear sector’s position in global competition across 23 countries using eight main parameters and 21 sub-indicators, it is stated that Turkey has irrevocably lost the race for low-cost contract manufacturing; it is emphasised that the sector must transition to a “value-focused” model by utilising its structural advantages in areas such as design, quality and logistics.
According to the report, which states that labour costs account for 52 per cent of the most influential cost factor in buyers’ ordering decisions, labour costs in Turkey are 18 times higher than in India and 8 times higher than in Bangladesh on a dollar basis.
Whilst it was stated that Turkey, ranked 18th, has structurally and irreversibly lost the race on pure cost, the report’s main focus was on Turkey’s position in terms of “value” in the face of this loss. In the value index, Turkey scored 80 out of 100 for design, 90 for textile infrastructure and 88 for skilled labour, placing it in the same segment as Italy and Portugal.
TGSD President Toygar Narbay, however, pointed out that even if the 52 per cent impact of labour costs were simulated down to 31 per cent, Turkey’s position in the competitiveness rankings would rise by only two places. Narbay stated, “The issue is not workers’ wages. Just as a reduction in labour costs in Turkey would not benefit the sectors, an increase in workers’ wages would not boost their purchasing power in the face of real inflation. The fundamental issue is our financial and macroeconomic problems. Inflation must be brought down and the exchange rate must be brought to where it ought to be.”
Government bonds were the most profitable investment in June
According to TÜİK data, in June, government domestic debt securities provided the highest real return to investors on a monthly basis, whilst the stock market topped the list on an annual basis. In the short term, deposit interest and foreign currency generated returns, whilst shares and gold resulted in losses; in the annual picture, however, the stock market and gold delivered gains, whilst foreign currencies lost value in real terms.
In June, government bonds provided the highest real return to investors at 2.42 per cent, when adjusted for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In calculations based on the CPI, deposit interest (gross) yielded a real return of 2.17 per cent, whilst the US dollar yielded 0.85 per cent; the euro lost 0.62 per cent, the BIST 100 index lost 2.36 per cent and gold bullion lost 6.64 per cent in value.
According to TÜİK data, the highest real return on an annual basis was also achieved by the BIST 100 index. When adjusted for CPI, the BIST 100 index provided investors with a real return of 14.34 per cent. When adjusted for CPI, gold bullion provided a real return of 12.60 per cent, government bonds (DİBS) 3.62 per cent and deposit interest (gross) 2.04 per cent, whilst the US dollar caused investors to lose 11.26 per cent and the euro 11.38 per cent.
Onions, June’s price surge champion: 15 TL in the fields, 45 TL in shops
Dried onions, which had recently reached as high as 50 lira per kilo but were selling for between 25 and 45 lira in shops as of last week, are still fetching between 15 and 25 TL in the fields.
Producers in Amasya point out that, in return for their labour, onions are selling for less than even a cup of tea in cafés. Oğuz Çelik, who has been growing and selling onions in Amasya for many years, noted that the harvest had been delayed due to spring rainfall, stating, “Our onions are currently selling for between 15 and 25 TL in the fields. With new produce entering the market, we expect prices to return to their normal course within the next 15 days and reach a level that will satisfy both farmers and consumers,” he said.
The Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (İTO) had previously announced that dried onions topped the list of products with the highest price increases in Istanbul in June, with a rise of 46.54 per cent.
Building construction costs rose by 28.5 per cent year-on-year in May
TÜİK published the Construction Cost Index figures for May 2026. According to these figures, the construction cost index rose by 1.87 per cent compared to the previous month and by 29.84 per cent compared to the same month last year.
On a monthly basis, the materials index rose by 1.77 per cent and the labour index by 2.04 per cent. On an annual basis, the materials index rose by 28.62 per cent and the labour index by 32 per cent.
The building construction cost index, meanwhile, recorded a rise of 1.96 per cent compared with the previous month and 28.56 per cent compared with the same month last year.
Two consecutive price rises for diesel: Price per litre reaches 67 lira
As fuel prices continue to fluctuate due to global volatility and successive tax adjustments, a second consecutive price rise has been applied to the diesel category. On Wednesday 8 July, the price per litre of diesel was increased by 76 kuruş. A price increase of 1 lira 33 kuruş per litre had also been applied to the diesel category the previous day (7 July). Consequently, the price of diesel rose by a total of 2 lira 9 kuruş over two days. In the European side of Istanbul, the price per litre of diesel stood at 66.78 TL. The price per litre of petrol was 62.87 TL.
Defence industry firm Assan Group sold to Roketsan
Following a military espionage investigation led by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, the defence industry firm Assan Group – whose management had been transferred to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) – was sold to Roketsan, which won the tender with a bid of 471 million dollars. Roketsan won the tender. At the tender held in Istanbul for the company, which was put up for sale last month, Roketsan—which submitted the highest bid of 471 million dollars—became the new owner of the factory through a partnership structure in which the majority stake is held by the Turkish Armed Forces Strengthening Foundation.
Our child, youth and elderly populations are below the global average but higher than the EU average
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) published the United Nations’ (UN) population projections for 2025 as part of World Population Day. According to these figures, Turkey ranked 18th among 194 countries with a population of 86 million 92 thousand 168. As of mid-2025, the world’s population was estimated at 8 billion 231 million people. India was the most populous country with 1 billion 463 million people, followed by China with 1 billion 416 million and the US with 347 million. These three countries accounted for 39.2 per cent of the world’s population.
In Turkey, the proportion of the population aged under 15 stood at 24.8 per cent, which was below the global average of 29.3 per cent. It was, however, higher than that of all 27 EU member states. The proportion of the population aged 15–24 in Turkey stood at 14.8 per cent. Although Turkey’s figure was below the global average of 15.6 per cent, it was higher than that of all EU countries.
The share of the population aged 65 and over in the total population was calculated at 11.1 per cent in Turkey; whilst this was above the global average of 10.4 per cent, it remained lower than that of all EU countries.
Fertility rates are falling; we are below the global average
Whilst the global total fertility rate was calculated at an average of 2.24 children per woman, in Turkey this rate stood at 1.42 children, remaining below the global average. Among EU countries, the highest fertility rate was recorded in Bulgaria at 1.74 children.
The highest fertility rate was observed in Chad, at 5.94 children per woman, whilst the lowest rate was recorded in South Korea, at 0.75 children.
According to UN projections, life expectancy at birth in 2025 is estimated to be 73.5 years globally. For men, this figure stands at 70.9 years, and for women at 76.2 years.
In Turkey, life expectancy at birth is estimated at 75.5 years for men and 80.7 years for women. Thus, life expectancy for both men and women is above the global average.
An omnibus bill submitted to Parliament includes a proposal to provide employers with support from the Unemployment Fund
Whilst the opposition and trade unions continue to demand an increase in the ‘unemployment benefit’ from which workers benefit when they become unemployed, as well as the easing of eligibility criteria for receiving the benefit, the ‘omnibus bill’ submitted to Parliament envisages providing support to employers from the Unemployment Insurance Fund. According to a report by Mustafa Çakır in Cumhuriyet, resources from the Unemployment Insurance Fund will once again be used to prevent employers from making redundancies.
Under the incentives and support measures, it is projected that a total of 188 billion TL will be utilised: 51 billion TL in 2026, 62 billion TL in 2027 and 75 billion TL in 2028.
ÇAYKUR has implemented a third price increase for dried tea in 2026
Following the fresh tea procurement campaign, ÇAYKUR has continued to raise prices, implementing a further 15 per cent price increase on dried tea varieties with effect from today. The organisation had previously raised tea prices by 10 per cent on 8 April and by a further 15 per cent on 22 May. With this latest 15 per cent increase, ÇAYKUR has raised tea prices by a cumulative total of approximately 40 per cent in the first seven months of the year.
Elon Musk’s fortune has evaporated by 500 billion dollars in an instant
Elon Musk has seen his fortune shrink by over 500 billion dollars as the value of shares in the companies he owns has fallen. Tesla shares fell from $428 at the start of July to $394 on 9 July, whilst SpaceX shares dropped from $225 on 16 June to $148 on 9 July. On 7 July alone, SpaceX shares fell by 6.8 per cent.
As a result of this fall, the world’s richest person, Elon Musk, saw his fortune drop by $58.2 billion in a single day.
Alongside the losses in SpaceX and Tesla shares, Elon Musk’s fortune has also seen a sharp decline compared to its peak.
According to Forbes’ real-time billionaires list, his net worth had fallen to $927.2 billion as of 9 July. Compared to the peak of $1.45 trillion reached last month, the total loss exceeded $500 billion.
Although SpaceX shares, which have retreated towards their IPO price amid a sharp sell-off in the markets, remain under pressure in the short term, major global banks continue to maintain their high target price forecasts for the company. Optimistic expectations regarding its position in the sector and its long-term growth potential remain intact.
Expectations of a Fed rate hike are rising
Expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise its policy rate in 2026 are strengthening. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate hike in September compared to previous days. Expectations have risen from around 57 per cent to over 63 per cent. High interest rate expectations are causing the dollar to strengthen, whilst putting pressure on non-yielding precious metals.
Societe Generale: The dollar will continue to strengthen in the second half of 2026
French bank Societe Generale has assessed that the dollar will remain strong in global markets in the second half of 2026 due to the strong growth outlook for the US economy. In line with this outlook, the bank forecasts that the DXY dollar index will rise to 103.6 by the end of the year. The report also predicts that the euro/dollar exchange rate could fall to 1.11 by the end of the year.
According to the bank, which anticipates that strong economic activity in the US could lead to inflation remaining above the target level, this outlook could reduce the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.