Can Baydarol
More than a month has passed since the US-Israel alliance launched its war against Iran. As the question of who is winning remains unanswered, the majority believe the war will continue. US President Trump is at the forefront of those who wish for the war to end as soon as possible. With his constantly contradictory statements, he declares victory on the one hand, whilst on the other claims that if Iran does not end the war, he will leave no stone unturned in that country. The camp of those wishing for the war to end as soon as possible comprises countries that do not produce oil and natural gas, but are consumers. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all but a few countries’ vessels is causing an extreme rise in oil and natural gas prices, rendering the stable course of the global economy impossible.
Naturally, there are also countries that stand to gain from the continuation of the war. Foremost among these is Russia, whose sanctions are weakening and which is selling oil and natural gas to the world at double the price. In addition to Russia, we must also include China, which is pleased that the US has become bogged down in the Middle Eastern minefield and is therefore unable to exert pressure on it. Of the warring parties, Israel continues to pursue its ambitions regarding Lebanese territory under the pretext that the war must continue until the Iranian regime is overthrown. Iran, whose prestige grows as long as the war continues—and which, even without the prospect of victory, cannot be counted as defeated—appears to be satisfied with the situation, particularly as regime supporters consolidate their position.
To this overall picture, one can also add Trump’s nonsense, his threats to dissolve NATO, and the fact that the whole world is watching in silent astonishment as the Israeli Parliament passes a resolution to execute only Palestinian prisoners. Of course, it is also necessary to note the statements made by Iranian state officials regarding the region’s energy resources—statements that hold the potential to turn the Gulf states into a desert, a threat even more menacing than the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If we attempt to assess the situation in our country as of the 34th day of the war, on which this article was written. We would not be mistaken in saying that Davos came to President Erdoğan’s doorstep, given that he had declared on 29 January 2009, “I will not go to Davos anymore.” Laurence D. Fink, CEO of BlackRock, visited President Erdoğan in Istanbul. From the images emerging from the meeting, it appears that President Erdoğan was accompanied by Mehmet Şimşek, Minister of Treasury and Finance, and Alparslan Bayraktar, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources.
Naturally, D. Fink’s visit has given rise to a series of conspiracy theories and speculations that are still circulating. In particular, there has been discussion regarding what the US’s demands of Turkey are and will be, and whether, in exchange for the transfer of certain resources to Turkey, our country will become a key hub for alternative energy transit routes to Hormuz. However, we have witnessed even more striking developments regarding the missiles allegedly fired from Iran and intercepted over our country. We still do not know under whose flag these missiles were fired, by whom, or what the actual target was. Has the importance of Incirlik Air Base increased for the US, which has lost many of its bases in the Gulf as a result of Iranian attacks? Is Incirlik Iran’s new target? Or are we facing the manoeuvres of those seeking to drag Turkey into the conflict? We do not know.
And what about the events unfolding on the Black Sea front? In particular, the recent revelation that plans are afoot to establish a NATO-affiliated corps command over the Bosphorus Strait (Beykoz) has naturally raised doubts regarding the Montreux Convention on the Straits, which has defined the international status of the Straits and the Sea of Marmara from 20 July 1936 to the present day and ensured the Black Sea remains a sea of peace.
In addition to the aforementioned corps, the Russian Ambassador (acting as Putin’s spokesperson) was the first to oppose this dangerous development—which, alongside the Istanbul Canal, could potentially end our country’s control over the Straits and the Marmara Sea—and the Ministry of National Defence subsequently denied the speculation.
We hope we manage to steer clear of such an adventure at any cost.
Naturally, the swift end of the war and the cessation of perceived threats against our country are our shared wish.
With the hope of waking to peace in the near future and avoiding any such adventures.