Levent Gürses
Poverty is increasing at an incredible rate. Inflation, which has persisted for years and cannot be brought below 30%, is the sole cause of this impoverishment… The state is taking from the poor and transferring it to the rich, creating large impoverished masses.
Wage increases are lagging far behind inflation, and purchasing power is eroding. In Turkey, cumulative inflation based on the CPI is calculated at 2,946 per cent from the beginning of 2020 to October 2025 (assuming that the CPI for October will be 2.8 per cent).
This means that prices have increased 29.46 times from the beginning of 2020 to the present.
In contrast, the minimum wage has increased by 850 per cent since the beginning of 2020, i.e. 8.5 times. Wages have lagged far behind price increases; the increase in inflation has reached 3.5 times the increase in the minimum wage.
In an assessment posted on his social media account, Prof. Dr. Fatih Özatay did not offer much hope for the future, stating, ‘Unless substantial steps are taken to address the shortcomings of the current economic programme, we should be “happy” if inflation remains around 25% by the end of 2026.’
Confederation of Progressive Trade Unions of Turkey (DİSK), with the slogan ‘Life is expensive, labour is cheap: You can’t live on these wages,’ stated in its protests that the government’s class-based and political choices have led to major economic devastation, and that the system is built on taking from workers and giving to bosses, making the poor poorer and the rich richer.
According to the World Inequality Database (WID), the share of the wealthiest 10 per cent in total wealth was 60.8 per cent in 2007 and rose to 68.4 per cent in 2023, the latest data available. We all know that it will increase further in 2024 and 2025…
Here is a brief summary of what we can glean from the economists’ studies:
- The difference between the poverty line and the minimum wage is 5,866 lira; the monthly food expenditure for a family of four (poverty line) is 27,970 lira, while the minimum wage is 22,104 lira.
- Turkey is the second-to-last country among OECD countries in terms of social spending as a percentage of GDP; the OECD average is 21%, while in Turkey it is 10%.
- In Turkey, the resources allocated to pensioners are 4.3% of GDP, while the world average is 7.9%.
- The state transfers all its revenue to interest, i.e. to the capital sector. In the 2026 budget proposal, 66 per cent of tax revenue comes from indirect taxes and 22 per cent from income tax deducted from salaries; the share of workers and the general public in tax revenue reaches 88 per cent. In contrast, the share of corporate tax is 11 per cent.
- In the first nine months of the year, workers lost 1 trillion 328 billion lira due to taxes and deductions, which was transferred to the coffers of the capital sector.
These are some striking figures; let’s move on to this week’s developments…
It is no longer the turn of those on low and fixed incomes to make sacrifices
In an interview with the T24 news site last week, Prof. Dr. Bilge Yılmaz said:
“There may have been a slight drop in inflation in recent months, but the decline in people’s welfare is much greater. A lot of taxes are being levied to reduce inflation a little, especially from those on low incomes. As a result, citizens have become poorer. It is supposedly being done for the citizens, but what is actually being done is oppression. In this sense, the programme has now failed. A 100-basis-point drop is an announcement that the programme has failed. The political will in power now wants interest rates to be lowered.
In my opinion, it is no longer the turn of those with low and fixed incomes to make sacrifices.
Raising and lowering interest rates is just one of the policy tools at our disposal. You have ten tools at your disposal, and you have tried to use only one of them rationally.”
Children in the grip of poverty; 195,000 left without care
More than 20 million citizens in Turkey can only sustain their lives with social assistance. Social assistance items, including the most basic areas such as food and shelter, reveal that millions of people have been driven into poverty under the AKP government. Deep poverty in Turkey also affects children. According to data from the Ministry of Family and Social Services, as of January 2025, according to a special report by Mustafa Bildircin in Birgün newspaper, 171,895 children in Turkey are at risk of being taken away from their families because they cannot be cared for.
The Ministry estimates that the number of children whose basic needs are not being met by their parents and who are at risk of being removed from their families will reach 195,000 by the end of 2025. The Ministry’s projections for 2026, 2027 and 2028 once again reveal the extent of deep poverty. It is stated that the number of children at risk of being separated from their families will reach 200,000 by the end of 2028.
The balance sheet for the last two years in the 102nd year: workplace deaths, unemployment, debts…
Last week was 29 October; we celebrated the 102nd anniversary of the Republic. The media featured assessments of the 102nd year. In an article, Birgün newspaper draws attention to the events of the last two years.
Workplace fatalities: According to ISIG data, between October 2023 and September 2025, exactly 3,903 workers lost their lives in workplace fatalities. Of these, 79 were children and 97 were over 65 years old.
Unemployment increased: According to TurkStat data, the rate of idle labour force, defined as real unemployment, was 21.3 per cent in October 2023. The total number of employed persons was 31 million 835 thousand. According to the latest figures, real unemployment rose to 28.6 per cent. The number of employed persons rose to only 32 million 491 thousand. Real unemployment exceeded 11 million during this period.
Debts soared: According to UYAP data, the number of enforcement files, which was 21 million 741 thousand on 29 October 2023, exceeded 24 million 776 thousand with an increase of over 3 million. During the same period, individual credit debt rose from 1 trillion 457.8 billion TL to 2 trillion 624.2 billion TL, while credit card debt rose from 991.8 billion TL to 2 trillion 478.8 billion TL. Overdue receivables rose from 41.4 billion TL to approximately 214 billion TL, an increase of nearly five times.
Food prices have been rising continuously for 65 months
According to the ‘People’s Inflation’ research conducted by KAMUAR, the R&D unit of the United Public Sector Workers’ Confederation, food prices rose by 3.7 per cent in October 2025 compared to the previous month. The total increase over the first ten months of the year reached 39.2 per cent, while the increase over the past year reached 57.1 per cent. Based on calculations using a basket of 64 basic food items most consumed by the public, food prices have risen continuously for 65 months. Prices rose by 7.4 per cent in October for bread, rice, flour, bulgur and pasta, by 13.5 per cent for vegetables and by 7.3 per cent for oil. Meat and fish prices fell by 0.8 per cent and fruit prices by 0.4 per cent.
The upward trend is expected to accelerate in the coming months.
The Confederation reported that food prices have increased by 1,449 per cent since September 2021, while public sector employee salaries have risen by only 1,034 per cent. The report stated, ‘The purchasing power of public sector employees’ salaries has eroded by 33 per cent against food prices.’
The visible face of poverty: Pasta consumption is increasing
Pasta consumption is steadily increasing in Turkey. Annual pasta consumption has risen to 7.3 kilograms per person. While eating pasta is a cultural practice in many countries, in Turkey it is primarily a food of choice because it is cheap. However, increasing poverty and declining purchasing power are driving up pasta consumption.
In 2013, annual per capita pasta consumption fell to 4.4 kilograms, but rose to 7.5 kilograms during the pandemic. Although per capita consumption fell to 7.1 kilograms in 2023, it rose again last year to 7.3 kilograms. According to a report in Nefes newspaper, Turkey ranked 13th in the world in pasta consumption in 2023, with Italy taking first place with 23.3 kilograms, Tunisia second with 17 kilograms, and Venezuela third with 13.6 kilograms.
Due to high rental prices, rent accounts for the lion’s share of household spending, while the share allocated to food is gradually decreasing. Turkey lags behind the world average in meat consumption. According to OECD and FAO data, per capita red meat consumption averages 34.8 kilograms in OECD countries, 34.5 kilograms in Europe, and 18.1 kilograms worldwide, while in Turkey it stands at only 16.6 kilograms.
Actual unemployment: over 11 million
The results of the Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TurkStat) September 2025 Household Labour Force Survey (HİA) were published on 27 October 2025. The seasonally adjusted narrowly defined unemployment rate was announced as 8.6 per cent, while the seasonally adjusted broadly defined unemployment rate (idle labour force) was 28.6 per cent.
According to TurkStat, the narrowly defined number of unemployed persons (seasonally adjusted) aged 15 and over in Turkey was 3 million 75 thousand in September 2025.
The number of unemployed persons under the broad definition, as calculated by DİSK Research Centre (DİSK-AR), was 11 million 705 thousand. The gap between broad-definition unemployment and narrow-definition unemployment is widening.
The broad definition of unemployment rate, which stood at 26.1 per cent in September 2024, rose to 28.6 per cent in September 2025, increasing by 2.5 percentage points over the past year. The annual increase in the number of people unemployed under the broad definition was 1,255,000. On the other hand, the potential labour force increased by 1 million 47 thousand people over the past year, rising from 4 million 256 thousand to 5 million 303 thousand. In other words, as of September 2025, 5.3 million people in Turkey cannot find work despite wanting to work.
The narrowly defined unemployment figure, which was 3 million 146 thousand in September 2023, reached 3 million 75 thousand in September 2024 and September 2025. Although narrowly defined (standard) unemployment appears to be decreasing, broadly defined unemployment has risen during this period. The number of broadly defined unemployed, which was 8,435,000 in September 2023, rose to 10,450,000 in September 2024 and 11,705,000 in September 2025. Thus, the gap between narrowly defined and broadly defined unemployment widened rapidly.
The Treasury is filling its coffers, while the people are trying to survive on debt
Gülcan Kış, CHP Member of Parliament for Mersin, said, “While the Treasury has 321 billion lira in its coffers, the citizens have not a penny left in their pockets. The average credit card debt has reached 120,000 lira. The minimum wage is 22,000 lira, and the pension is 14,000 lira. Banks have now started offering “rent loans”; citizens are even taking out loans from banks to pay their rent. While the public lives on debt, the Treasury is getting rich on debt.”
CHP member Kış pointed out that the Treasury had borrowed 1.7 trillion lira in the first seven months of 2025, 807 billion lira of which was excess borrowing, stating that the Treasury was actually creating new interest burdens under the pretext of “reserves” and said, “Şimşek’s model protects market actors, not the people. What they call rationality is not about growing production, but about increasing interest rates.”
TurkStat: Inflation calculation method to change
TurkStat announced that changes will be made to inflation calculations from January 2026 in line with European Union harmonisation. According to the statement, in accordance with European Commission decisions, the base year for consumer price inflation (CPI) will be updated to 2025=100 simultaneously across all European Union countries from January 2026.
The main source of CPI weights will be the National Accounts Household Final Consumption Expenditures. Lower-level weights will continue to be determined by the Household Budget Survey. The chain index structure of the historical series based on the current base year of 2003=100 will be maintained and restructured according to the new classification. Therefore, there will be no change in headline inflation indicators.
Alamos Gold, which ravaged the Kaz Mountains, withdrew from Turkey for $470 mln
Canadian mining giant Alamos Gold, which filed a $1 billion arbitration case against Turkey, sold its mining projects in Turkey to Nurol Holding for $470 million. The company received the first instalment of 160 million dollars upfront and will collect the remaining 310 million dollars within two years. Alamos, which drew criticism for environmental damage in the Kaz Mountains, has suspended the arbitration process with this sale.
Alamos Gold, which has remained in the spotlight due to the damage it has caused in the Kaz Mountains, announced that the process has been completed, recalling that it sat down at the negotiating table in September to sell its Turkish unit to Nurol Holding.
According to an exclusive report by Kerim Ülker from Patronlar Dünyası, a statement sent by the Canadian company to the Toronto Stock Exchange revealed that Alamos received $160 million in cash following the completion of the sale. Alamos will receive an additional $160 million and $150 million on the first and second anniversaries of the completion of the transaction, respectively. Alamos’ three gold and silver development projects in Turkey are part of Doğu Biga Madencilik Sanayi ve Ticaret AŞ, which was sold.
Alamos Gold was operating in the Kirazlı, Ağı Dağı and Çamyurt fields within the borders of Çanakkale in Turkey. The copper mine operated by the Canada-based company in Kirazlı had been in the public eye in 2019. The company had become the focus of criticism at the time due to allegations of tree felling and water pollution in the Kaz Mountains.
THY to purchase aircraft from Boeing with Chinese credit
Turkish Airlines (THY), which is preparing to purchase 225 aircraft from the US company Boeing, has obtained credit from a Chinese state bank.
The five-year loan of 2.9 billion Chinese yuan (approximately $412 million) from the Bank of China will support strategic development areas such as fleet expansion, growth plans, new facility investments and infrastructure projects at Istanbul Airport.
THY had previously announced that it had placed an order for 225 aircraft, 50 of which are firm, under an agreement signed with Boeing on 25 September 2025.
Record decline in Central Bank reserves
According to Central Bank data, official reserve assets fell from $198.4 billion to $185.5 billion. This marked a record weekly decline in gross reserves. Reserves recorded a historic decline, falling by approximately $13 billion in one week. The decline was influenced by falling gold prices and increased political tension, which led to foreign exchange sales.
Banks’ nine-month profit reached 669 billion lira
The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) published its report on ‘Unconsolidated Key Indicators of the Turkish Banking Sector’ for the period ending September 2025. As of the end of September, the sector’s net profit for the period was 669 billion 676 million lira. The sector’s total assets increased by 10 trillion 920 billion 708 million lira compared to the end of 2024, reaching 43 trillion 578 billion 620 million lira.
HSBC’s 2026 forecast for gold prices: New record to be seen
HSBC Global Investment Research predicted that gold prices would average $4,600 per ounce next year, with the potential to rise to $5,000 by early 2026.
The bank stated that it expects some volatility in the short term but that increased risk appetite will support gold. It also noted that interest in gold ETFs is expected to remain strong this year, with demand from Asian central banks, particularly the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), expected to be significant.
The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points as expected
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% at its seventh meeting of 2025. The Fed stated that the decision was taken by a vote of 10 to 2.
It was reported that Fed Board Member Stephen Miran voted against the decision, favouring a 50-basis-point rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted against it, favouring keeping the policy rate unchanged.
The statement noted that employment growth had slowed this year, the unemployment rate had risen slightly but remained low through August, and more recent indicators were consistent with these developments.
It was noted that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains somewhat elevated. The statement pointed to continued high uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and noted that downside risks to employment have increased in recent months.
US inflation fell short of expectations
In the US, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3 per cent month-on-month and 3 per cent year-on-year in September, falling short of expectations. Market expectations were for inflation to be 0.4 per cent month-on-month. The CPI had also risen by 0.4 per cent in August.
Annual inflation reached its highest level since January during this period. Market expectations were for the CPI to increase by 3.1 per cent on an annual basis. Annual inflation was 2.9 per cent in August.
Millei won in Argentina, but how?
In Argentina, the parliamentary elections were won by the ruling party led by President Javier Milei. Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza (Advancing Freedom), emerged victorious from the election with 39 per cent of the vote.
Cem Oyvat from the University of Greenwich commented:
“Milei’s victory in an election where turnout plummeted to 68 per cent (normally in the 75-80 per cent range) reflects the recent failure of the Peronists rather than Milei’s success. Especially considering that this election victory came after Donald Trump declared that ‘Argentina is dying’ and announced that he would provide Argentina with $40 billion in support…
On the other hand, liberal economists and writers who praise Argentina and present it as a model country for Turkey do not sufficiently substantiate their arguments. In my opinion, they are not being honest enough.
How did Argentina reduce public spending? Yes, it reduced the number of public employees. But that is not even the main source of the cuts.
– Infrastructure investments came to a standstill.
– Civil servant and pensioner salaries were severely squeezed.
– Social assistance and subsidies for energy and transport were cut.”
The cost of the shutdown to the US: $14 billion
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has stated that the federal government shutdown could cost the US economy between $7 billion and $14 billion and could reduce gross domestic product by up to 2% in the fourth quarter due to disruptions in government spending.
The most difficult period in history for graduates to find work
According to Indeed, one of the world’s largest employment platforms, job postings for new graduates have fallen by 33 per cent in the last year. Graduate unemployment in the US and the UK has exceeded the general unemployment rate for the first time in history. Chris Eldridge, CEO of global recruitment firm Robert Walters, said: ‘Companies cannot predict the economic outlook. They have suspended graduate recruitment for two years because they do not want to take capital risks. This will create a significant talent gap in the future.’
According to a report by Bank World, the impact of artificial intelligence is also deepening this crisis. Jérémy Clédat, founder of the Paris-based platform ‘Welcome to the Jungle,’ notes that the decline in entry-level positions is occurring three times faster than in senior roles: ‘Companies are waiting to see the impact of artificial intelligence. However, this wait is jeopardising the future workforce.’