Can Baydarol
That’s a fine saying. ‘The outcome of wars shows not who is right, but who is strong!’ If I remember correctly, it was Bertrand Russell who said it.
Looking at what is happening in Iran, the strong side is definitely the US/Israel side, but is Iran in the right? Absolutely not. The only one who is right, in my opinion, is Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez.
We will return to Sanchez’s principled stance later. Let’s try to understand what is happening. Why does this process concern the US, and President Trump in particular? Undoubtedly, Trump needs a narrative to keep his presidency. We know he is in trouble with the courts. The Epstein case, the case against Trump’s tariffs for violating US law, the war launched without congressional authorisation and in violation of the US Constitution. Above all, the fear of losing the Senate renewal elections in November and becoming a lame duck.
The belief that ‘hero Trump,’ who overthrew the Mullah regime in Iran and brought a regime to Iran that is democratic according to them, but not necessarily related to democracy, and that suits US interests, can overcome both the legal problems and the November election is widespread in Trump’s camp.
From Israel’s perspective, Iran has always been a problem, and if the Mullah regime does not change, it will continue to be a problem. So, according to Trump, it is a more understandable situation. Especially with the US ready to help him, Netanyahu will go as far as he can. But isn’t Netanyahu in trouble with the elections and the law? How could he not be? An Iranian victory is his only way out.
So, in line with the comments made by all sensible statesmen and international law experts, why can’t we see Iran as justified, despite the US/Israeli attack being a clear violation of international law (UN Charter Article 51)?
How many sane people can accept appearing to support a Mullah regime that blatantly violates human rights and women’s rights and kills its own citizens?
On the one hand, Trump’s redefinition of US imperialism (what belongs to the US belongs to the US, what is not America’s also belongs to America!), Israel’s lawlessness in the region, and on the other hand, the Mullah regime’s unacceptable practices, common sense is caught in the middle, hiding behind the statement, ‘if there is to be a regime change in Iran, it must be desired and carried out by the Iranian people!’
But is there any possibility of this statement becoming reality? As far as we can see, no. The rebellions within Iran, supported from outside, particularly by the US and Israel, only serve to consolidate the Mullah regime. Finally, does the opposition Kurdish movement being attempted around PJAK have any chance of success?
Perhaps what concerns us most is whether there is any connection between this formation and the missiles allegedly launched from Iran and shot down over our territory. Is Iran trying to drag us into a regional conflict? Or are others seeking to broaden the front playing a dirty game against us?
As far as can be understood, the chances of success for an initiative in the context of PJAK seem non-existent in the face of rising Iranian nationalism as the intensity of US/Israeli attacks increases. Can being labelled as collaborators of imperialism, aimed at dismantling Iran, be a sustainable way of life after the US leaves this region?
So, considering that the war cannot be concluded through air battles alone, but victory can only be achieved through a ground force intervention, can Trump risk such an intervention? How suitable is the regional geography, and to what extent can Trump account for the military casualties that would result from a ground intervention?
Let’s move on to the Strait of Hormuz card played by Iran.
Can the global economy see this card? Do countries already experiencing supply chain problems since the pandemic have a chance to cope with this new situation?
How and when will the war end? We do not know. We congratulate Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez once again for his principled stance. We hope that he has provided an important clue as to how the problem of leadership within the EU can be resolved.