Uprising

We are watching with astonishment as the uprising—which began some three weeks ago as a high-school student movement but has gradually spread to other sections of society and turned into a conflict—unfolds in France, in numerous cities, particularly the capital, Paris. In fact, we cannot help but ask whether this is a matter of astonishment or a lesson to be learnt.

As is well known, the French are a protest-minded people; when things do not go their way, they are unrivalled in their ability to turn events into an uprising. When the first images began to emerge, ‘Red Danny’ inevitably sprang to mind. On 5 May 1968, the events that began as a protest against the de Gaulle regime—if we recall correctly—led to the President stepping down within 20 days, with Pompidou taking over the role. So, will this uprising—in which the torch has been passed from university students to secondary school pupils—produce the same result? In other words, will President Macron be forced to step down following a decision to call a snap election? Given that there are still approximately six months to go until the presidential elections (April 2027), this seems rather unlikely at this stage. But isn’t six months too long to put a stop to this chaotic situation? We cannot say.

First, let us consider what the secondary school pupils are demanding. In particular, the dilapidated school buildings in the suburbs where the lower classes live, overcrowded classrooms that do not allow for proper education, and a shortage of teachers. Although the government’s best hope at present appears to be the schools entering their half-term break, and the Education Secretary has announced the recruitment of 3,000 new teachers, the unrest does not seem likely to subside. As previously noted, the unrest has long since ceased to be solely the preserve of secondary school pupils. With the participation of the protesters we know as the ‘Yellow Vests’, it now appears to have reached a different level of vandalism.

So, what is the underlying cause of all this? Undoubtedly, the plummeting performance of the French economy must be cited as the primary factor. The public debt reaching unsustainable levels, coupled with the necessity for austerity measures, is causing France to drift further and further away from being a welfare state. The masses, accustomed to a high standard of living, are choosing to express themselves through various forms of protest in proportion to the economic hardships they face. In particular, rising income levels – especially amongst low-income groups – are increasingly leading to the questioning of France’s iconic motto: ‘Liberty, Equality, Fraternity’. Indeed, questions such as ‘What equality?’ and ‘What fraternity?’ are bringing with them an exaggerated form of the freedom to protest. In particular, the attitudes of former migrants who have previously acquired French citizenship – which border on hatred towards new migrants – are also contributing to the entrenchment of the feeling that ‘the newcomers have arrived, and we have become, or will become, unemployed’.

So, is there a way out of this situation? According to French economists, a tax increase of around four per cent might be sufficient to stabilise the economy. But could such a move—which would further worsen living conditions—be something the political establishment is prepared to risk?

Could the UK, which faced similar economic difficulties not so long ago—just three years ago—be considered a model? The answer to this question is also negative. The UK, which never joined the eurozone and left the EU via Brexit, found a solution by devaluing its currency. For France, which is part of the eurozone, taking this route is currently impossible. However, the possibility inevitably springs to mind if the far right were to seize power and withdraw from the eurozone, even if it remained in the EU. Concerns that this situation might spell the end of the EU are rife in the corridors of Brussels. So, would the European Central Bank resort to a devaluation of the euro to alleviate the pressures faced by EU countries—France foremost among them—that are grappling with similar issues, even at the risk of triggering an inflationary spike? Highly unlikely.

There are certainly those who attribute the blame for the current situation to the flawed presidential system of the Fifth Republic. Proposals for a Sixth Republic – which would grant the President the authority to bypass Parliament when necessary, given the President’s difficulty in taking radical steps due to the French Parliament being divided into three distinct political camps – are also being brought to the fore. Our country’s example could well serve as a guiding light for them to reconsider this situation!

The question of who might become France’s head of state in the first elections highlights two candidates from opposing poles. Following the two-round election, the candidates advancing to the second round will be either the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen or the socialist candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

For the time being, those who give Le Pen the better chance are in the majority. Mélenchon, who faces accusations of inciting unrest, is a favourite among young people due to his pledge to lower the voting age to 16 and his support for secondary school pupils; however, in the upcoming elections, it will be France’s ageing population—rather than the young—who will form the decisive voting bloc. Mind you, the general tendency among the French has so far been not to give way to the far right. Will this trend continue? We shall see.

Up until now, we’ve always been gloomy about Turkey’s prospects. It now seems that the time has come to be gloomy about France and other EU countries as well. It appears that, without curbing rising energy costs and defence expenditure, the days of prosperity are coming to an end.

Anyway, let’s carry on minding our own business. I’d like to say, ‘What’s it to us what the rest of the world gets up to?’, but given the interconnected nature of the world and the context of Turkey–EU relations, I’m afraid I cannot bring myself to say it.

All the best…