Doubts

Can Baydarol
In my latest article, entitled ‘The Mecca Agreement and Beyond’, I discussed the potential
problems the agreement could cause for us. The most significant criticism of my article was
that I had reached overly hasty conclusions, based on the fact that the agreement had not
yet been ratified by the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, and the uncertainty regarding
whether it contained an automatic entry into force clause, similar to Article 5 of the NATO
Treaty, amongst other factors.
However, the Houthis’ subsequent attack on Saudi Arabian territory and the threats levelled
by Houthi leaders against our country and Pakistan should the Mecca Agreement be
implemented inevitably led to questions about what is actually happening. Given that the
Houthis essentially function as Iran’s proxy in Yemen, this also led us to conclude that the
primary target of the Mecca Agreement was Iran.
In this context, the indefinite suspension of flights by the Iranian civil aviation company
Mahan between Tehran, Ankara and Istanbul, and the revocation of the operating licence of
the Iranian bank Bank Mellat in Turkey, were also seen as further escalations in the
mounting tensions between Turkey and Iran.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s strong condemnation of the attack on Saudi
Arabian territory, his indication that we are aware of our obligations under the Mecca
Agreement, and his veiled messages regarding how a potential intervention might unfold did
not go unnoticed. The uncertainty as to whether our country will once again find itself facing
a ‘Yemen-style’ conflict, and whether this might drag us into a hot conflict with Iran – a nation
with which we have lived in peace for centuries – unfortunately raises questions that go
beyond mere conspiracy theories. On the other hand, Foreign Minister Fidan’s making such
commitments regarding an agreement that has not yet been submitted to the Grand National

Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) and has not yet entered into force in accordance with due
process also constitutes a breach of the democratic norms that Turkey is claimed to still
uphold, however minimally.
Against this backdrop, President Erdoğan’s visit to the US for the UN General Assembly, his
address as the fourth speaker at the UN during this visit, and finally his planned meeting with
US President Trump have all been noted as a striking piece of timing.
In particular, the recent effusive praise from Barrack, the US’s most senior representative in
our region, serves to heighten our suspicions beyond mere good faith.
Will Turkey be able to witness the fulfilment of the promises made by Trump on the occasion
of the NATO Summit in Ankara? We know that these promises did not sit well with Israel and
Greece, and that the attacks by the Jewish and Greek lobbies in the run-up to the November
mid-term elections had effectively tied Trump’s hands.
Will the lifting of CAATSA sanctions, the provision of engines promised for our domestically
produced fighter aircraft, the delivery of the F-35s for which we have paid, and the removal of
obstacles to the new F-16s and upgrade kits we are ready to purchase with our own funds
actually materialise? Or will negotiations take place to immediately bring the Mecca
Agreement into force—in anticipation of the possibility that these promises might be
fulfilled—and to plunge our country into adventures with unforeseeable consequences, in line
with US demands?
As we said, this is merely a suspicion. I hope it does not come to pass.
Well, is there nothing good happening at the moment?
The good news came from Germany. According to the final results of the Berlin state
elections, Elif Eralp – of Turkish origin, who celebrated her victory by dancing the halay to
Tarkan’s songs – has become Mayor of Berlin and, following the coalition negotiations, will
most likely become Minister-President of the State of Berlin.
We believe that Ms Eralp will take the lead for the sake of us all, in the face of the fear of the
far right that is spreading across the world. Our endless thanks go to her and her voters. Of
course, it must also be noted that, in the face of this election victory, the future does not look
particularly bright for the Christian Democratic Union parties, the Social Democrats and,
more importantly, the Merz government.
In the hope of waking up to better days…