“The Arctic route is a result of China’s economic and industrial power”

Istanbul, September 3 (HNA) – It was emphasised that China’s announcement that it would launch a container service from China to Rotterdam via Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) implies that, provided the route is predictable, priceable and repeatable, it could be integrated into supply chains.

In an analysis published by the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel under the title ‘China’s Arctic Silk Road Is Now a Reality’, it was highlighted that China’s new Arctic shipping route is not merely a consequence of its geographical location; but also a result of Russia’s dependence on China and China’s economic and industrial strength, and that both of these advantages are the product of a deliberate Chinese strategy.

In the analysis dated 24 August, written by Alicia García-Herrero, it is stated: “Whilst China is demonstrating its economic power by forging a partnership with Russia, the US is struggling to implement its own Arctic transport options. For the US, and more importantly for Europe, the Arctic demonstrates that industrial capacity, economic clout and access through negotiation have become central factors in geopolitical competition,” it stated.

The analysis included the following views:

“In mid-August, the Chinese shipping company Sea Legend announced that it would launch a container service from China to Rotterdam via Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR), taking approximately twenty days (roughly half the time of the route via the Suez Canal). Chinese shipping in the Arctic is not new: its vessels have passed through the NSR several times in recent years. However, these voyages were exploratory and irregular. The new service marks the first regular commercial transit through the Arctic Ocean.

“The planned total volume is relatively small, as the fleet consists of just seven modestly sized container ships that will operate on the route for only four months a year. Arctic vessels will be just one-fifth the size of the container ships passing through the Suez Canal, which account for approximately one-eighth of global trade. The significance of the ‘Sea Legend’ plan lies in the fact that transit through the Arctic Ocean is predictable, cost-effective and repeatable; this means the route can be integrated into supply chains. As traditional routes such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz become more risky, the appeal of this route is likely to increase.

“The Northern Sea Route differs from other routes where freedom of navigation is not effectively applied. Russia does not regard this as an open international waterway and controls a large part of the route. Russia grants permits and collects fees via Rosatom, the state-owned nuclear company that operates the heavy icebreakers required to escort cargo ships through the icy waters.”

The analysis emphasised that the US has long anticipated this development and has been examining alternative Arctic routes for its own shipping, stating:

“One of these is the Northwest Passage, which runs through the Canadian Arctic. However, this is hampered by unpredictable weather conditions and shallow waters. The second option is the Transpolar Sea Route, which passes through the centre of the Arctic Ocean, thereby avoiding the jurisdiction of any country – and consequently, fees and permits; however, distance and residual sea ice hinder the feasibility of this route. Other options require heavy ice-breaking vessels, an area in which the US lags considerably behind. Russia possesses the world’s largest fleet of icebreakers, comprising more than 40 polar vessels.”

The analysis highlighted that the imbalance in Arctic shipping reflects a broader geopolitical reality; that China’s dominance stems from its industrial capacity, and that China has overtaken the US in many areas—including shipbuilding, unmanned aerial vehicles, batteries and mass production—and is reaping the benefits of these advancements; and “The lack of icebreakers demonstrates that the US does not possess the industrial base required to produce what its strategy demands,” it was stated.