The elections and their aftermath
We have been through election processes that have reminded us of the question: ‘Is world history being rewritten?’ Whilst the victory of the students’ list in the Serbian elections may not have been discussed all that much here, the end of Vučić’s 12-year reign served as a sign to us all that even things deemed impossible can happen.
In Israel, the troubled country of our region, Netanyahu did not get what he wanted, as expected, but Eisenkot—who is even more radical than him—appears to have come out on top. The uncertainty surrounding the coalition looks set to continue for some time. What is particularly interesting is that the Arab representatives, who represent Palestinian citizens of Israel, have risen to play a key role in the coalition to be formed, having secured 19 seats. Will much really change in Israel’s state policies? Most likely not, but we shall wait and see.
In the US elections, which are significant for the whole world, including our region, the Democrats secured a major advantage over the Republicans in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, dealing US President Trump a heavy electoral defeat. The newly elected officials, who are due to take office on 3 January 2027, will, from that date onwards, effectively place Trump in a ‘lame duck’ position. Although the final vote count may not yet be confirmed, the House of Representatives – where the Democrats’ majority is certain – may not carry much weight for Trump’s future. However, the Senate, where one-third of the seats were up for election, is of critical importance. Having won 54 seats in the 100-member Senate, the Democrats could carry out manoeuvres that could go as far as impeaching Trump.
So what is the significance of all these developments from our perspective?
The Serbian elections can be seen as proof that there is a way out even in the most hopeless of situations. If the time for renewal has come, a small spark can lead to major results. We saw this in Serbia.
The elections in Israel and the US, meanwhile, may herald geopolitical shifts that closely concern our country. At this point, particularly given that the US Senate plays a decisive role in US foreign policy, we must acknowledge that the Democrats’ vision for the future is also significant from our perspective. How will the Democrats perceive Trump’s support for the Israel-Iran war – a stance we have frequently criticised? How will the Democrats assess the notion—expressed by Trump himself—that ‘the real reason for the election defeat was the impact of the Iran war on the US economy’? Given that the primary target is China, could Israel’s unconditional support—which serves no purpose other than wasting time and money in the Middle East—pave the way for a new vision? Moreover, hasn’t the slogan ‘Make America Great Again (MAGA)’ actually backfired, laying bare the limits of US power in all their starkness?
Yes, there are many question marks, and the answers to these questions will play a decisive role in shaping the geopolitical environment in which our country finds itself. For them, the Middle East is merely a region on a map; for us, it is the living space in which we reside, alongside our neighbours.
As we noted in the preceding lines, we shall begin to see the main consequences of these developments from 3 January 2027 onwards. Until that date, Trump and his administration will continue in the manner to which we have become accustomed. After 3 January, will there be a change in Trump’s behaviour patterns in light of foreseeable challenges? In other words, will he adopt a hawkish stance, particularly regarding the war with Iran, approaches to the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia–Ukraine War? Or will he opt for a dovish approach? Will he seek to mend relations with the EU, or will he continue to insist on Turkey’s contributions to NATO in particular? Viewed in this light, it would not be wrong to suggest that we are entering a highly critical two-month period.
Naturally, one must also ask: ‘Is the Democrats’ return to the political stage with such strength a favourable development for Turkey?’ When it comes to relations with the Democrats, the images of Obama brandishing a baseball bat at Erdoğan still linger in our memories. It would not be misleading to expect that Turkey–US relations, which were virtually put on hold during the Biden era, are set to enter a new and challenging phase. To maintain these relations properly, there is a need to reassess the nature of the relationship that has evolved from Trump to Erdoğan and back again. Turkey must return from a model of leader-to-leader relations to one of institutional relations. The time has come to reassess this not only through state institutions but also by incorporating lobbying activities and business sector initiatives.
Meanwhile, let us also recall that Erdoğan has one last chance to fulfil the promises he made at the most recent NATO Summit in Ankara by 3 January 2027 – whilst Trump is still firmly in the White House. As is well known, the lifting of CAATSA sanctions, as well as the promises regarding the F-35, F-16 and aircraft engines, did not materialise due to the influence of the Jewish and Greek lobbies during the elections. Now that the election is over, the election was lost without the negative influence of these lobbies. There is no longer any negative reason preventing these promises from being fulfilled. Will progress be made on these points through the concerted efforts of a final leader-to-leader dialogue? We shall see.
What will be the impact of the election results we have witnessed on Turkish domestic politics?
It is not easy to predict. However, the perception that whoever Trump supports ends up losing the election also points to a new world order; this approach is not one to be dismissed out of hand.
Let us continue to hope….
