In the age of artificial intelligence, development will be a race not only for those who use technology, but for those who can shape the game. According to Prof. Ufuk Akçiğit, creative destruction offers Turkey a real leap forward opportunity through the right human capital, data-friendly institutions, and university-industry collaboration. The cost of a wait-and-see strategy, however, is increasing day by day.
Prof. Ufuk Akçiğit
Professor of Economics, University of Chicago
Author of The Economics of Creative Destruction
In the age of artificial intelligence, the starting whistle for the development race has already sounded. This time, the issue is not just about ‘using technology’; it’s about who will set the rules of the game. In the coming period, markets we don’t even know the names of today will emerge; at the same pace, disruptions and crises we have never experienced before will also knock on the door. In such a world, the most expensive strategy is ‘wait-and-see’.
Therefore, countries must first strengthen their foundations: better consolidate resources and direct them towards robust infrastructure investments; then immediately create an ecosystem where entrepreneurs can rapidly test and scale new ideas. Infrastructure is no longer just roads, bridges, and ports; it is digital capacity, computing power, connectivity, institutional agility, and most importantly, data.
Because data is at the heart of this transformation. Data is the fuel for artificial intelligence; without data, technological advancement is impossible. However, countries’ approaches to data vary greatly. While northern countries take a more ‘amicable’ approach to data, in many countries—especially middle-income economies—we see a more cautious, distant stance. Yet artificial intelligence has a unique nature: it requires flow, experimentation, and sharing. When these steps are not taken, the ‘walls’ that need to be overcome remain in place.
Moreover, those walls are not being torn down without debate. When there is no basis for discussion, countries become paralysed, stagnant, and the process gets stuck in a ‘wait-and-see’ policy. Then something interesting happens: some countries claim to be ‘pioneers,’ but when you look at the data and indicators, they rank at the bottom. So the issue is not saying ‘we are investing’; it is where, how much, and in what capacity investments are being made.
China, India, and the US are dynamic; Europe is distant
I see two main approaches to artificial intelligence. One group is quite distant from the issue; Europe is a typical example. Europe’s reflex is often more negative. This has to do with Europe’s ‘institutional DNA’: the culture of regulation is historically very strong. The system largely operates through control mechanisms and vetoes, which makes it difficult to take risks.
The structure of the innovation ecosystem also feeds this caution. For example, when the financial system is more ‘punitive,’ entrepreneurs who experiment through trial and error struggle to find a second chance. Yet failure is inherent in entrepreneurship. Looking at powerhouses like Germany, it is not easy to say that start-ups are the engine of growth; we see a structure that grows more through established companies.
In contrast, the dynamism of China, India and the US is striking. The general expectation is that ‘as a country grows, its mechanisms become heavier.’ But perhaps for the first time, we are seeing such large countries becoming even more dynamic than smaller ones. This widens the gap in the race; the world is increasingly drifting towards a more ‘bipolar’ structure.
Artificial intelligence needs fresh blood
Artificial intelligence is a field that needs ‘fresh blood’. This is because it is difficult for established companies to reinvent themselves around artificial intelligence. In contrast, companies built from scratch are more agile; they can grow very quickly because they place technology at the centre of their business model.
US data confirms this: companies that use artificial intelligence more intensively are mostly younger companies. There is a negative correlation between company age and artificial intelligence usage. Younger companies are faster; older companies are more bureaucratic and resistant to change.
This picture tells us that in the age of artificial intelligence, simply importing technology is not enough to ensure competitive strength; an environment is needed where young ideas can emerge and scale rapidly.
Competition policies: The safety belt of creative destruction
There are two fundamental pillars to ensuring quality growth:
Allowing new ideas to emerge and be implemented,
Keeping existing companies under discipline.
If existing companies are not kept in check, they will eventually attempt to ‘take over’ the economy; the market closes in their favour and competition is stifled. The East Germany–West Germany example illustrates this well: when institutions that protect competition remain weak due to a capacity gap, powerful players can turn the game in their favour.
Today, companies can achieve huge market shares in a very short time. Therefore, competition policies will become even more critical. Because today’s innovation, if not properly controlled, can become an obstacle that leaves no room for tomorrow’s entrepreneurs. The innovation of the past will not automatically be the innovation of the future; yesterday’s winners can become tomorrow’s brakes.
Where is the window of opportunity for Turkey? Health and agriculture
Turkey’s greatest advantage is that it can quickly feel the ‘leveraging’ effect of artificial intelligence if it focuses on the right areas. More than 50% of academic research in Turkey is concentrated in the field of health. This is a significant advantage. Data production in healthcare is high; there are numerous problems where artificial intelligence can directly create value. If we can combine our expertise in healthcare with artificial intelligence, a significant leap forward becomes possible.
A similar potential exists in agriculture. Turkey is a major agricultural country with high employment and production capacity. There is a strong foundation for integrating artificial intelligence into agriculture to increase productivity, improve resource utilisation, reduce losses, and enhance quality. For countries caught in the middle-income trap, this period could be a ‘leapfrog window.’ Artificial intelligence, with the right strategy, is a lever that enables us to run faster from the same starting point.
Human capital: Is it there or not?
The most critical issue in Turkey’s artificial intelligence journey is human capital. Here, we need to read the picture clearly:
The shortage of experts is a real obstacle in the short term.
Strong human resources are fundamental to progress in technical fields such as artificial intelligence.
It is essential to build bridges with the diaspora and international networks until we can train our own human resources.
It is critical to effectively utilise collaborations with our experts abroad and academic networks.
It is not enough to train talent; we must create an environment that will retain them in the country.
Otherwise, the limited number of trained experts will leave for abroad, and the loss will grow.
Universities are the ‘gateway’; when bridges are built with industry, knowledge is quickly transformed into economic value.
In artificial intelligence, academia-industry collaboration is no longer ‘nice to have’ but ‘essential’.
Institutional capacity: Strategy Committee and 5-10 year plan
Artificial intelligence is advancing at a dizzying pace. Countries that fail to take action will not only miss out on opportunities; over time, they will face much higher costs. Today, the number of countries investing on a scale that will truly change the game can be counted on one hand.
During this transition period, Turkey needs to achieve two things simultaneously:
Rapidly develop human resources,
Make institutions agile and build capacity.
For this reason, I consider it necessary to establish an ‘AI Strategy Committee’ where academia, the private sector and the public sector meet regularly. Such a structure monitors progress, identifies needs early on and produces a roadmap based on concrete goals.
And of course, Turkey must decide what kind of growth model to adopt during this period of creative destruction. If we say ‘we are all players on the same team,’ we must know the coach’s tactics. Otherwise, everyone runs on their own, and no game emerges. If 5–10-year plans with measurable targets, industrial strategies, and human resource projections are clarified, the private sector will also anticipate the future and make investments accordingly.
Final word: Those who don’t get on this train will fall behind
Creative destruction can be painful, but it is necessary. Without destruction, there is no room for new ideas. The issue is not to ignore the losers; it is to establish a system that can manage the cost of transformation, smooth the transitions, and move people to productive areas.
There is an opportunity for Turkey: there is expertise in healthcare and agriculture, there is energy in the young population, and the cost of entrepreneurship is decreasing. But opportunity does not grow on its own. In the age of artificial intelligence, the most expensive strategy is ‘wait and see’. With the right infrastructure, the right human capital initiative, the right competition policies, and a clear national strategy, Turkey can turn this period into a leap forward.