Can Baydarol
Our eyes were on the United States during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). The messages delivered at the General Assembly, followed by the Erdoğan-Trump meeting at the White House, were important for those trying to understand what the coming days would bring to the world and Turkey. However, to assess what happened more accurately, we need to go back a week before the General Assembly.
Russia took its aggressive stance in the Ukraine war one step further. Russian armed aircraft (UAVs and others) appeared in Romanian and Polish airspace, with rumours that India was also partially accompanying the Russians.
At the UNGA, Trump, who had publicly humiliated Zelensky just a few months ago, this time praised him to the skies and declared that Ukraine would reclaim the territories it had lost to Russia. As far as can be understood, Trump no longer likes Putin and is not pleased with the possible (and seemingly already existing) Russia-India-China alliance in his shift towards China. To break up this alliance, he is on one hand, taking sides with Ukraine against Russia, and on the other hand, pursuing the removal of India from the alliance. In this regard, US officials announced last week their intention to begin trade negotiations with India. The intention is clear, but is it easy? It does not seem very easy.
Let us recall that as a result of the embargoes imposed on Russian natural gas and oil, the Russians redirected their energy exports to China via India, and the embargo was circumvented through India, which processes this natural gas and oil. In response, the US imposed additional customs duties on its trade with India. Can India be won over by the US as long as the current conditions remain unchanged? Will trade negotiations proceed smoothly? It is unknown.
As for the question, ‘How will this situation affect us?’ Among the messages conveyed by Trump following the Erdoğan-Trump meeting was that Turkey should limit its energy imports from Russia and replace them with US shale gas (LPG) (worth $43 billion over the next 20 years). How much of an additional cost would this entail for Turkey? We cannot say at this stage. However, it is clear that the aim is to bend Russia’s will by shifting Turkey’s preference from the Russia-China axis to the Western axis.
Is the US the only one seeking to develop good relations with India? The answer to this question was provided by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen ahead of the UN Security Council meeting. Her statement that ‘we cannot remain spectators to what is happening; we must take a proactive stance and begin free trade area (FTA) negotiations with India’ reflected the fact that EU countries take the Russian threat seriously. Statements originating from Germany have begun to suggest that Russia’s true intentions are not limited to Ukraine, but will increasingly turn towards the German border, potentially leading to a Russian-German war as early as 2029. Natural security concerns are rapidly diverting the EU from its priority of creating a welfare society, with security investments leading to the erosion of social welfare allocations and the rapid destabilisation of political balances within the EU.
So what impact will these developments within the EU have on us?
First, let us look at the potential economic impact of a possible EU-India FTA on us. We must emphasise that this situation will unfortunately, have a negative impact on us. Due to the nature of our customs union with the EU, Indian goods entering the EU market duty-free will acquire EU origin after entering the EU market and will therefore be able to enter Turkey without encountering any barriers. On the other hand, it is worth noting that our competitive strength within the EU market will decrease in comparison to these products. The only solution to remedy this situation is to establish an FTA between Turkey and India simultaneously. The notion that ‘the EU’s FTA with India will automatically cover Turkey’ is unfortunately a false conclusion due to the nature of our customs union. Given that we have unconditionally supported Pakistan in the Pakistan-India conflict, do you think India would be willing to conclude an FTA with Turkey under the current circumstances? My answer is no. I cannot say what yours would be.
Let us turn to some of the statements made following the Trump-Erdoğan meeting. As I write this article, with little statement coming from Erdoğan’s side, we are forced to make an assessment based on limited information, namely Trump’s messages and the possible topics of discussion prior to the meeting.
Trump assessed the meeting as very positive. Given that the meeting lasted approximately two hours, it would probably not be wrong to suggest that sensitive issues were not addressed in depth, or if they were, they were handled with a positive agenda in mind.
The key topics of importance to us were the F35, F16, the Halkbank issue, Turkey’s exemption from CAATSA sanctions, Boeing orders for the Turkish Airlines fleet, the future of Turkey’s rare metals, and what share our country would have in the projected $100 billion trade volume.
In response to a journalist’s question, Trump stated only in relation to the F35 programme that ‘Turkey could return to the F35 if it fulfils its preliminary obligations,’ which naturally leads us to ask, ‘What are these preliminary obligations?’
Yes, as we stated in our headline, a game of musical chairs is being played with full force around the world, and we are an important part of this game. The emphasis on our role within NATO, the constant highlighting of the key role we will play in European defence, the continuing uncertainty over Syria’s future, and the recognition of Palestine by numerous countries in response to Israel’s steps to annex Gaza (well, what good is it to recognise a country that has no land left? what difference does it make if it is not recognised? I believe we should also listen to those who ask this question) bring both the risks and advantages around us to the fore.
While all this is happening, the approach of Mr Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, to ‘shift our direction towards the Russia-China axis’ inevitably leads us to ask the question: ‘Are we moving from a game of musical chairs to a game of blind man’s buff?’