Osman Şenkul
“Do you know why the unemployment rate is rising? Because more jobs are sought during times of crisis. Particularly among women, the labour force participation rate increases during times of crisis.”
These are the words spoken by Mehmet Şimşek, who has been Minister of Treasury and Finance since 4 June 2023, back in March 2009, during the height of the global financial crisis, when he was only Minister of Finance – approximately 16 years ago.
Let’s say that when the global financial crisis hit and hundreds of thousands of workers lost their jobs, as Şimşek said, spouses who were looking after children at home started looking for work, and unemployment rose.
In Turkey, labour force participation was around 45-46 per cent 20-25 years ago, when the collective bargaining system was under severe pressure and functioning poorly.
At the beginning of 2025, the labour force participation rate in Turkey was approximately 53.3 per cent, according to seasonally adjusted data. According to the latest data released in July 2025, this rate rose to 54.3 per cent.
This shows us that more than half of the working-age population is now entering the labour market. In other words, more individuals want jobs. Why is this happening? It is because it has become impossible to get by on a single income, or because those who were working have already lost their jobs. However, is a labour force participation rate of 45 per cent really that good? Of course not. This indicates that 550 out of every 1,000 people who can work are not even counted in the labour force.
Furthermore, considering that the OECD average is 75 percent and that it is over 85 percent in Western European countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark, even Turkey’s increased rate is still very low.
If labour force participation in Turkey had reached the level of developed Western European countries, the situation would undoubtedly be much more dire. With the current resources, the unemployment rate would have reached a world record of 40 percent, or even 50 per cent.
According to TÜİK data, the unemployment rate stood at 8.0 per cent in July; however, the increase in the underutilised labour force rate, which consists of time-related underemployment, potential labour force and unemployed persons, continued, rising to 29.6 per cent, or 32.9 per cent seasonally adjusted, after increasing by 3.8 percentage points month-on-month to 29.2 per cent in June.
Given this situation, savings rates also began to experience significant declines. According to World Bank data, the household savings rate in Turkey, which stood at 30.3 per cent in 2021, fluctuated between 20 and 25 per cent this year. Data from the CEIC (Global Economic Data, Indicators, Charts & Forecasts) data centre, established by a group of economists and comprising 6.6 million time series covering more than 200 economies, 20 industries and 18 macroeconomic sectors, also shows that Turkey’s gross savings rate stood at 23.9 per cent in the last quarter of 2024. In short, during this period, there were also significant declines in household savings across the country.
In other words, these figures show that, with the Currency-Protected Deposits leading the way, while those at the top cannot find a place to put their dollars and euros, ordinary people can no longer even put the three or five thousand liras they used to set aside in their salary accounts, “just in case”.
Not only is it impossible to save, but data also shows that the recent increase in initiatives such as ‘bread on hold’ and similar aid programmes is another development. We know that bread is one of the oldest food products produced by humans. Findings in Egypt and Europe date bread back 30,000 years. Therefore, bread plays a very important role in the development of almost all cultures. The origin of ‘culture’ is based on “grain” and ‘bread’ made from grain.
Just as the phrase ‘to earn one’s bread’ has become established in our language to mean ‘to make a living,’ in many English-speaking cultures, “bread” is used instead of ‘money.’ Bread now occupies a place as a standard staple food product in developed countries. Its place on the table comes after meat, vegetables, fish and their derivatives.
However, in Turkey and many Eastern cultures, bread is still the staple food product and an indispensable part of the table. Without bread on the tables of the poor, there is no satisfaction.
In poor households, all kinds of food can be eaten with bread. Large pieces of bread are dipped in the sauce of the meal, or an olive is eaten with two bites of bread.
Data from about 15 years ago shows that the average annual consumption of bread per person in Turkey was 120 kilograms. However, according to recent data from various sources, the annual consumption of bread per person in Turkey is approximately 200 kilograms (199.6 kilograms).
However, while bread may be overlooked alongside other nutritious food products on affluent tables, daily consumption among the poor exceeds half a kilogram. In contrast, in Western European countries, where bread has largely been relegated to the background, the average daily bread consumption per person does not even reach 100 grams.
As can be understood, bread forms the basis of sustenance in Turkey. Bread is a daily staple in poor households. According to the results of a study conducted by the Grain Board, nearly all bakeries (96.4 percent) sell their own products. However, only 30 per cent of all bread is sold this way.
It is also clear that 70 per cent of bread is purchased from neighbourhood grocers and supermarkets. Even when bakeries and grocers are located side by side in neighbourhoods, the ‘grocer’ is preferred. This is because neighbourhood grocers, who are struggling to survive, continue to finance households without credit cards or cheques.
People go to the neighbourhood to ‘buy bread’. 94.5 per cent of households buy bread every day without fail. In one-third of these households, people go to ‘buy bread’ more than once a day.
The time of buying bread is also timed to coincide with the time of setting the table, so that it can be eaten “fresh”. Of course, with almost every purchase, a piece of bread is missing from one end. Because the youngest member of the household, who has ‘held out’ until mealtime, can no longer control their hunger, they start “nibbling” on the fresh bread, breaking off a small piece from one end.
There must surely be an important reason why bread-centred nutrition has come to the fore to such an extent, mustn’t there? This reason is also revealed by the ‘poverty line’ studies initiated by Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (Türk-İş), later joined by United Metal Workers’ Union Class Research Centre, affiliated with Confederation Of Progressive Trade Unions of Turkey (DİSK), and many other labour organisations, which show that it has become quite difficult for workers to set tables with “no bread” or even ‘little bread’.
According to calculations by the United Metal Workers’ Union Class Research Centre, the poverty line for a family of four, which was 1,658 lira in 2018, rose to 26,149 lira in August, in other words, well above the minimum wage of 22,104 lira. During the same period, the ‘poverty line,’ calculated by adding expenses such as rent, school fees, books, and cinema, also rose from 5,738 lira to 90,450 lira.
Of course, with so much poverty, the resulting desperation is also significantly increasing the tendency to commit crimes. The data shows that there has been a marked increase in crimes against property, such as theft and robbery, in Turkey in just the last year.
According to data from the General Directorate of Security, which shows an increase in some types of theft and a decrease in others, the number of crimes involving different types of theft across Turkey in 2024 is as follows:
Burglary: 78,436 cases (approximately 0.8 per cent increase)
Vehicle theft: 30,373 cases (approximately 1.3 per cent increase)
Bicycle theft: 245,868 cases (approximately 6.9 per cent decrease)
Shoplifting: 404,907 cases (approximately 5 per cent decrease)
Pickpocketing: 107,720 cases (approximately 1.5 per cent decrease)
Although specific data on robbery offences across Turkey in 2024 is limited, according to 2023 figures, robbery is among the crimes attributed to children. For example, 4,375 robbery offences attributed to children were recorded in 2023.
According to data from various sources for the first half of 2025, there was a 17 per cent increase in crimes against property (theft, looting, robbery) in Turkey. This increase reflects a general rise in crime rates, particularly due to economic and social factors. However, exact figures regarding the rates of such crimes across the country have not yet been released. This increase in such crimes was particularly noticeable in large cities, but also had an impact in rural areas.
In short, even according to Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) data, which is ‘distrusted’ by organisations representing millions of people, primarily trade unions, academic circles and numerous civil society organisations, the signs and reflections indicating that impoverishment in Turkey is rapidly advancing to very serious levels are becoming increasingly apparent with each passing day. Data revealing developments in every aspect of human life, such as unemployment, now also clearly show how poverty in Turkey has developed and what levels it has reached.