Levent Gürses
The postponement of the lawsuit concerning the CHP’s 38th Ordinary Congress held on 4-5 November 2023 benefited the stock market. As of Thursday, 18 September, Borsa Istanbul was the stock market with the highest weekly increase among global stock markets.
As of Thursday, 18 September, the BIST 100 index rose by 6.52 per cent on a weekly basis. The index closed Thursday at 11,048 points. The BIST 50 index also rose 6.47 per cent on a weekly basis.
The BIST 100 index gained 6.06 per cent on Monday, when the court decision was announced, reaching 11,000 points.
Following the BIST 100, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index rose 3.13 per cent, and Brazil’s Bovespa index rose 2.27 per cent, making them the best-performing stock markets. European stock markets also maintained their strength; the Euro Stoxx 50 index, comprising the continent’s leading 50 stocks, closed the week with a 1.27 percent increase.
CDS score at 5-year low due to political environment
Turkey’s credit default swap (CDS) score fell to 240 points. This marks the lowest level for Turkey’s 5-year credit risk premium since February 2020. The CDS score has fallen by 20.6 per cent over the last three months and by 8.1 per cent over the last week.
Turkey’s CDS had risen to 370 points on 11 April during the process of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest, which began on 19 March. It reached a historic peak of 838 points in June 2022, when the economic crisis was at its height.
The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, as expected, to a range of 4-4.25 per cent.
It was announced that the decision was taken by 11 votes to 1, with Stephen Miran, newly appointed by US President Donald Trump to the Fed Board of Governors, voting against the decision and favouring a 50 basis point rate cut.
The statement noted that recent indicators showed that economic activity growth had moderated in the first half of the year, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate remaining low despite a slight increase.
It was stated that inflation had accelerated and remained somewhat high, uncertainty regarding the economic outlook continued to be high, and downside risks to employment had increased.
The Fed last cut interest rates in December 2024
The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in four years in September last year, lowering its policy rate by 50 basis points, following progress in inflation. The Fed also cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in November and December, but paused its rate cuts in January after three consecutive meetings last year. It made no changes to the policy rate at its meetings in March, May, June, and July.
The latest data released in the US showed that consumer price inflation had accelerated, while the labour market had weakened. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4 per cent month-on-month and 2.9 per cent year-on-year in August. Non-farm employment in the US increased by 22,000 in August, falling short of expectations, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.2 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
Powell: No environment for a 50 basis point cut
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that with risks to employment increasing, they had decided it was appropriate to move towards a more neutral policy stance, adding that there was ‘no widespread support’ for a 50 basis point rate cut.
At the press conference, Powell said that although the unemployment rate remained low, it had risen, employment growth had slowed, and downside risks to employment had increased.
He emphasised that much of the slowdown in employment growth may reflect a decline in labour force growth due to lower immigration and lower labour force participation. However, Powell emphasised that labour demand had weakened and that the recent pace of job creation appeared to be below the ‘break-even’ level needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. He also noted that wage growth, while continuing to slow, was still above inflation. Powell stated, “Overall, a significant slowdown in both labour supply and demand is unusual. In this less dynamic and somewhat weakened labour market, downside risks to employment appear to have increased.”
Short-term inflation expectations…
He noted that inflation has accelerated recently and continues to run somewhat high, and that disinflation continues in the services sector. Powell noted that short-term inflation expectations have generally risen throughout the year, as reflected in both market and survey-based indicators, in line with news about tariffs, while most long-term expectations remain consistent with the 2% inflation target.
Wall Street hits record highs once again
The Fed’s rate cut benefited US stock markets. Wall Street’s three most widely followed indices – the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq – hit new highs on Thursday, breaking records.
As of Thursday, the Dow Jones rose 0.67 per cent, the S&P 500 rose 72 per cent, and the Nasdaq index, which is heavily weighted towards technology stocks, rose 1.49 per cent on a weekly basis.
Gold continues to rise after the Fed’s decision
Gold prices hit historic highs during the week. The Fed’s interest rate cut accelerated the shift towards gold. The price of gold for December delivery reached $3,744 per ounce on Wednesday, 17 September. However, the price of gold per ounce then eased and closed at $3,672 on Thursday. As of 18 September, gold showed no significant change on a weekly basis.
Last week, the price of silver per ounce reached a 14-year high. The price of silver per ounce tested its highest level since September 2011 at $42.3 on international markets. Silver has gained 45.7 per cent for investors since the beginning of the year. Gold lagged behind silver, performing at 39.7 per cent.
UBS’s gold forecast: $3,900 by mid-2026
Swiss bank UBS, highlighting interest rate cuts and the weakening dollar, raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 by $300 to $3,800 per ounce and for mid-2026 by $200 to $3,900 per ounce.
UBS also raised its forecast for gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) assets, stating that it expects them to rise to just over 3,900 tonnes by the end of 2025, approaching previous record levels.
Presidential allowance increases by 26% to 21.3 billion lira
The Presidential budget proposal for 2026 stands at 21 billion 286 million lira, which translates to a daily expenditure of approximately 58 million TL.
The ceiling expenditure for the budget proposed for the Presidency in 2026 has been determined in the Medium-Term Programme. 21 billion 286 million TL has been allocated for next year. Last year’s budget was 16 billion 928 million lira. Thus, while the budget was increased by 26 per cent, it exceeded the 16 per cent inflation forecast for the end of 2026 by approximately 10 points.
Accordingly, daily expenditure is expected to reach approximately 58 million TL (1.4 million dollars).
More than half of the projected budget was allocated to the purchase of goods and services. 11 billion 721 million 931 thousand TL was allocated for expenditure under this heading. Personnel expenses were projected at 4 billion 502 million 933 thousand TL.
Richest and poorest segments difference at 51 thousand dollars
In Turkey, it was emphasised that there is a difference of 51,200 dollars (12.3 times) between the wealthiest and lowest-income 10 per cent of the population. World newspaper writer Naki Bakır stated in his article, “With high inflation and the effect of low exchange rates, per capita income has increased by $6,000 over the last three years, while there is a 12.3-fold difference between the lowest and highest income brackets.”
Bakır continued: “In Turkey, despite high inflation in recent years, per capita national income has doubled on paper in dollar terms, reaching record levels, partly due to the low exchange rate. However, a difference of $51,200 (12.3 times).”
Naki Bakır noted in his article: “The 8.8 million people in the highest income bracket enjoy the average standard of living of developed European countries such as Germany, Belgium and Austria, while the standard of living of the same number of people in the lowest income bracket is roughly equivalent to that of the East African country of Djibouti and the North African countries of Morocco and Tunisia. Per capita income exceeds $55,000 in the highest income group, while it remains around $4,000 in the lowest income group.”
The number of enforcement and bankruptcy cases reaching record levels
The debt crisis has made repayments nearly impossible. According to current UYAP data, the number of enforcement and bankruptcy cases in courts has exceeded 24.5 million. Since the beginning of the year, the number of pending enforcement cases has reached 24,528,839.
In just the first two weeks of September, the increase in the number of cases approached 82,000. According to a report in the Birgün newspaper, an analysis of daily data from UYAP, which is affiliated with the Ministry of Justice, shows that the number of new cases reached tens of thousands on weekdays and even hundreds on weekends.
According to the latest data from 14 September, 662 new enforcement and bankruptcy files were received by the offices even on Sunday. On Friday, 12 September, the number of files received was 31,813.
Regrets over privatisation in electricity and natural gas
Ali Babacan, Chairman of the DEVA Party, said that some privatisations carried out during his time as minister were not correct. Appearing on a television programme, Babacan assessed companies that became monopolies after privatisation, such as electricity and natural gas distribution companies, and said, “Privatisation was not right in those areas.”
“After privatisation, there needed to be very good oversight,” said Babacan, adding, “The people sent to oversee the privatised distribution companies are very weak, but their bosses are people who get things done with the minister and the president. Therefore, they cannot be supervised. When they cannot be supervised, the service to the public becomes expensive and poor. If we had today’s perspective, we wouldn’t have privatised them.”
The 8-month budget deficit at TL907 bln, with TL1.4 bln interest payments
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced the budget figures for August. Thanks to the increase in corporate tax revenue in August, the central government budget recorded a monthly surplus of 96.7 billion TL. Budget expenditures amounted to 1 trillion 191.4 billion TL, while budget revenues reached 1 trillion 288.1 billion TL. In the January-August period, central government budget expenditures totalled 8 trillion 891.2 billion TL, budget revenues reached 7 trillion 983.6 billion TL, and the budget deficit was recorded at 907.6 billion TL.
Tax revenue collection increased by 56 per cent compared to the January-August period last year, reaching 6 trillion 871 billion lira. The realisation rate of tax revenues compared to the budget estimate was recorded as 61.6 per cent.
Among the Treasury’s expenditures, interest expenditures increased by 87 per cent, reaching 1 trillion 425 billion 759 million lira. Interest expenditures accounted for 18 per cent of tax collection.
Investco Holding operation: 14 arrests
The managers of Investco Holding were arrested as part of an investigation conducted by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office on the grounds that they ‘laundered money obtained from offences against the capital markets law through the stock exchange and various investment instruments’. It was stated that the investigation, which involved 14 people, including renowned economist Işık Ökte, was launched following the detection of unusual price movements on the Borsa Istanbul and losses incurred by small investors.
Decrease in credit card interest rates
The Central Bank has reduced the interest rates applied to credit cards. The relevant communiqué was published in the Official Gazette and entered into force. Accordingly, credit card cash withdrawal and credit deposit account interest rates were reduced by 25 basis points, with interest rates falling from 4.75 per cent to 4.5 per cent and late payment interest rates falling from 5.05 per cent to 4.80 per cent. These rates will be effective from 1 October.
“Agricultural policies have destroyed production and enriched importers”
CHP Deputy Chairman Erhan Adem stated that the AKP’s agricultural and livestock policies, which have been in place for 20 years, have ignored producers, saying, “13 billion dollars went to imports, but neither the producers gained nor the citizens ate cheap meat. These policies increased poverty, destroyed production, and enriched importers.”
Adem deemed the agricultural subsidies increased by presidential decree and the payments to be made to producers affected by the agricultural frost disaster insufficient, calling for urgent structural solutions to protect farmers’ debts and rights. Adem said, “Payments must be made to all farmers affected by the agricultural frost disaster.”
Erhan Adem also reacted to the raw milk price increase. Adem stated that the raw milk price does not cover the producer’s costs and must be revised immediately. Adem said, ‘A 1.25 lira increase means bankruptcy for the producer.’ With the new price effective from 1 October, the recommended retail price of raw milk rose to 19.60 TL per litre.
The number of people working in the industry is decreasing
According to TÜİK’s statistics on salaried employees for the July period, the number of salaried employees in the industrial, construction and trade-service sectors in July increased by 1.2 per cent compared to the same month last year, reaching 16 million 101 thousand 724 people.
The number of salaried employees in the manufacturing, construction, and trade-services sectors, which was 15,910,286 in July 2024, increased by 1.2% to 16,101,724 in the same period this year.
In the month in question, the number of salaried employees decreased by 3.5 per cent year-on-year in the industrial sector, while it increased by 7.7 per cent in construction and 2.5 per cent in trade and services. On a monthly basis, the total number of salaried employees across all sectors increased by 0.3 per cent in July compared to the previous month, with a 0.9 per cent increase in construction and a 0.3 per cent increase in trade and services. In the industrial sector, it decreased by 0.1 per cent.
Short-term external debt increased by 1 per cent
The Central Bank announced that Turkey’s short-term external debt stock increased by 1.1 per cent in July compared to the previous month, reaching $170.9 billion. The short-term external debt stock originating from banks increased by 1.3 per cent in July compared to the previous month, reaching $74.4 billion.
The short-term external debt stock, which shows debts with a maturity of 1 year or less regardless of their original maturity, amounted to $223.3 billion.
Public inflation expectations remain high
According to Koç University’s September 2025 Household Inflation Expectation Survey, year-end inflation expectations were 65 per cent, while expectations for the next 12 months were 58 per cent. The estimate for the low-income group remained at 57 per cent, while the proportion of those who stated they were unable to save reached 58 per cent.
The poverty line for a family of four civil servants is 37,173 lira
According to research conducted by the Office Workers’ Union Research Centre (BES-AR), the monthly expenditure required for a family of four civil servants to eat a healthy and balanced diet was calculated to be 37,173 TL. According to the research, the cost for a public employee living alone was 58,335 TL.
It was noted that the poverty line, which refers to the total amount of monthly expenses required for food, clothing, housing (rent, electricity, water, fuel), transportation, education, health and similar needs, was 90,279 lira.
According to BES-AR’s research, the minimum wage, which was 22,104 TL as of 2025, was 68.17 per cent below the poverty line for a family of four civil servants.
BİSAM: Poverty line is 9,450 lira
According to the August 2025 Hunger and Poverty Line Report published by the United Metal Workers’ Union Class Research Centre (BİSAM), the hunger line for a family of four was 26,149 lira. Thus, the poverty line exceeded the minimum wage of 26,005 lira by 144 lira.
The monthly cost of food required for a healthy and balanced diet for an adult male is 7,347 lira, while this figure is 6,969 lira for an adult female, 7,281 lira for a young person aged 15-18, and 4,553 lira for a child aged 4-6.
The poverty line, which represents the amount a family needs to spend on education, health, housing, entertainment, heating, and transportation, reached 90,450 lira.
Current account surplus in July
The current account balance recorded a surplus of 1 billion 766 million dollars in July, while the annualised current account deficit stood at approximately 18.8 billion dollars.
According to the balance of payments data announced by the Central Bank, the current account recorded a surplus of $1.766 billion in July 2025, while the current account excluding gold and energy also recorded a surplus of $6.029 billion.
Housing prices rose by 2.5 per cent in August
The housing price index rose by 2.53 per cent on a monthly basis in August, while the annual increase was 31.42 per cent. According to the Central Bank’s statement, the highest annual increase in August 2025 was 41.6 per cent in the Erzurum, Erzincan, Bayburt, Ağrı, Ardahan, Kars, and Iğdır region, while the lowest annual increase was 23.5 per cent in the Aydın, Denizli, and Muğla region.
Index values rose by 30.2 per cent in Istanbul, 41.1 per cent in Ankara and 31.9 per cent in Izmir compared to the same month last year. Increases of 3 per cent in Istanbul, 2.8 per cent in Ankara and 2.5 per cent in Izmir were recorded.
45 per cent increase in mortgage-backed home sales
According to TÜİK data, mortgage-backed home sales across Turkey in August increased by 45.2 per cent compared to the same month last year, reaching 19,712.
Mortgage sales accounted for 13.8 per cent of total home sales. Mortgage home sales in the January-August period increased by 84.6 per cent compared to the same period last year, reaching 141,227.
TÜİK reported that the number of housing sales across Turkey in August increased by 6.8 per cent compared to the same month last year, reaching 143,319, with Istanbul leading the way with 21,814 sales, followed by Ankara with 12,419 sales and Izmir with 7,695 sales.
Housing sales in the January-August period increased by 21.3 per cent compared to the same period last year, reaching 978,070.
Treasury borrowed 26.7 billion lira through two bond auctions
The Treasury and Finance Ministry borrowed 26 billion 747.6 million lira through two bond auctions. In the first auction, the real simple interest rate was 6.11 per cent and the real compound interest rate was 6.21 per cent for the issuance of a 5-year (1820-day) maturity, 6-month 3.06 per cent real coupon payment, CPI-indexed government bond.
In the second auction, the first issuance of a 10-year (3,640-day) fixed-coupon government bond with semi-annual payments of 15.03% was signed. The simple interest rate in the auction was 29.86%, and the compound interest rate was 32.09%.
Bank of England unable to cut interest rates as inflation rises
The Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate steady at 4 per cent, in line with market expectations. At its August meeting, the BoE cut the rate by 25 basis points to 4 per cent, marking the fifth rate cut in a year. However, inflation in the UK remains at 3.8%, its highest level since January 2024. The BoE emphasised that lowering interest rates too early carries the risk of inflation rising again, while keeping rates high for too long increases the risk of recession. High inflation remains a critical issue for the government and the Central Bank.
European Central Bank adopts “wait-and-see” approach
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its three key policy interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. In a statement regarding the monetary policy decision, the ECB announced that it had kept its refinancing rate at 2.15%, its deposit rate at 2% and its marginal lending rate at 2.40%. Having made a total of eight interest rate cuts since mid-2024, the ECB is continuing its ‘wait-and-see’ approach from July 2025 onwards.
Inflation in the Eurozone matched the ECB’s target at 2.1 per cent year-on-year in August. Inflation rose by 0.1 per cent compared to July. Market expectations were 2.1 per cent.
The ECB also updated its inflation and economic growth forecasts. Inflation is expected to be 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Core inflation is forecast to be 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The economy is forecast to grow by 1.2 per cent this year. In June, growth for 2025 was forecast at 0.9 per cent. For next year, growth is expected to be 1 per cent, down from the 1.1 per cent forecast in June.
The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 100 basis points
The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 17 per cent. In a statement, the Bank noted that the current price increase was not significantly changing sustainable indicators and remained above 4 per cent on an annual basis.
The statement emphasised that the economy continues to enter a balanced growth trend, stating, ‘Credit growth has intensified in recent months. Inflation expectations remain high.’
Zuckerberg is pursuing innovation with AI-powered smart glasses this time…
Mark Zuckerberg is making a major investment in the future. The Meta CEO unveiled an augmented reality pair of glasses. A new AI-powered smart pair of glasses that can analyse the user’s surroundings and answer questions about them…
Zuckerberg said that people who do not use smart glasses may one day have a ‘significant cognitive disadvantage’ compared to those who use the technology.
Experts are sceptical… Because the company is remembered for its successive failed ventures. In the early 2000s, it failed to pivot towards smartphones. Then, in 2021, it attempted to reposition its brand around the metaverse, but this venture also failed to reshape the internet as Zuckerberg had envisioned.
Larry Ellison’s fortune surged by 94 billion dollars
Oracle’s boss, Larry Ellison, has become the world’s richest person, surpassing Elon Musk, according to Bloomberg. His fortune surged by 94 billion dollars. Why? Because of estimates that revenue from the company’s cloud infrastructure (mostly for artificial intelligence) will rise from $18 billion this year to $144 billion over the next four years… Oracle’s market value was $654 billion on 6 September and $830 billion on 14 September.
