ICI – Turkey’s export climate improves, but at weaker pace

Jun 8, 2022 #ICI

London, June 8 (HNA) – The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index posted 53.2 in May, signalling a solid improvement in demand conditions in export markets, and extending the current sequence of strengthening to 16 months. While the export climate facing Turkish manufacturers continued to improve during May, there were some signs of growth in key export markets slowing, according to the data released by ICI.

The Turkish Manufacturing Export Climate Index is calculated by weighting together national Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data on output trends from PMI surveys. Weights are derived from statistics on the relative importance of individual trading partners’ contributions to the exports of Turkish manufacturers.

Commenting on the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index, Andrew Harker,
Economics Director, S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“Latest PMI data points to worrying signs of growth slowing, particularly in some of the key export markets for Turkish
manufacturers. Steep price pressures are acting to limit demand, and so firms will be looking to compete strongly
over the coming months in order to make sure they can secure orders.”

“In fact, each of the four largest destinations for Turkish manufactured goods saw output rise at a weaker pace midway through the second quarter. On the other hand, further strong expansions were recorded across parts of the Middle East” read the ICI data.

That said, the reading was down from 54.4 in April and pointed to the weakest improvement since January. Softer growth was recorded across each of the four largest export destinations for Turkish manufacturers, namely Germany, the UK, the US and Italy. In particular, growth in the UK slowed sharply to a 15-month low, while the US also saw a much weaker rise in activity during May.

More positively, Spain and France continued to record sharp increases in activity midway through the second quarter, often reflective of a post-Covid recovery in demand from the service sector.

The Middle East was a key source of strength in May. The UAE posted a sharp increase in non-oil business activity and
one that was the fastest in the year to date. Meanwhile, Qatar registered the sharpest growth of all countries covered
by the report. Output trends in Egypt and Lebanon remained muted, however.

The war in Ukraine continued to impact activity in parts of Europe. Russian output was down for the third month running, albeit to the least extent in this sequence. Meanwhile, Polish manufacturing production fell at the fastest pace in two years. The sharpest reduction in output was seen in Mainland China, where Covid-19 lockdowns continued to restrict business activity. Output was down for the third month running, and at a sharp pace. Issues in Mainland China impacted other economies in the region, with Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia’s all-seeing activity decreasing.

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