Levent Gürses
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s eagerly awaited trip to the United States has taken place. The visit resulted in the purchase of 225 Boeing aircraft, costing Turkey $33 billion. Yet the cost of providing one free meal per day to every student from nursery school to high school is $4.8 billion, and the Ministry of National Education is persistently turning a deaf ear to these calls.
US President Donald Trump praised Erdoğan and kept his seat. The ruling party is very pleased with the visit and developments. The economic dimension of the deal is worth billions of dollars… The ‘purchase’ revealed by CHP leader Özgür Özel, which Trump confirmed as a ‘heavy Boeing purchase’, is taking place.
Turkish Airlines (THY) made a major deal with Boeing following President Erdoğan’s meeting with Donald Trump. The agreement, covering the purchase of 225 aircraft, was reported to the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP). It was stated that the aircraft would be delivered by 2035.
According to THY’s KAP filing, it has decided to purchase a total of 75 B787-9 and B787-10 aircraft from Boeing, comprising 50 firm orders and 25 options, to be delivered between 2029 and 2034. Additionally, it has finalised negotiations with Boeing regarding the purchase of a total of 150 737-8/10MAX aircraft, comprising 100 firm orders and 50 options.
The total cost of the Boeings is $33 billion
The list price of the B787s is $240 million, while the B737s are $100 million. In total, the fleet renewal will cost over $33 billion. THY and AJet have a total of 492 aircraft. With the new purchases, the number will be 717. Of course, during this process, some aircraft will be removed from the fleet and sold.
Let us recall that Lufthansa, Europe’s largest airline, has 721 aircraft, while United, the world’s largest airline, has 1,026, and Delta has 1,007.
One in four children goes to school hungry, but free meals have not started
Anyway, while billions of dollars are being spent on aircraft purchases, the free meals programme for students is not being restarted. In Turkey, where one in four children goes to school hungry, the AKP government and the Ministry of National Education are turning a deaf ear to calls for one free meal to be provided in schools.
The free school meals programme, launched at the beginning of the 2022-23 academic year, was discontinued after the 6 February earthquake on the grounds of austerity. In a statement made in November 2022, the then Minister of National Education, Mahmut Özer, announced that they had increased the number of students receiving free meals to 1,796,985.
“Have you ever seen a secondary school student satisfied with just a piece of dry toast?”
CHP Istanbul MP Ali Gökçek’s bill proposing one free meal per day for students was rejected in April by votes from the AKP and MHP.
In his speech to the General Assembly, Gökçek drew attention to child poverty in Turkey and emphasised the urgent need for free meals in schools: “Nearly 10 million children who will build tomorrow’s Turkey are living in poverty. One in three children cannot have breakfast in the morning. One in four families cannot afford to consume at least one meal of meat, chicken or fish during the day. Children go to school with empty lunchboxes. Today, a toast, a bottle of water and a glass of ayran cost 100 lira in the school canteen. Have you ever seen a high school student satisfied with a dry toast?”
The cost of providing free meals is 4.8 billion dollars
Gökçek also stated that providing one free meal per day to every student from nursery school to high school would cost $4.8 billion.
According to OECD data, one in four children in Turkey goes to bed hungry and lives in severe poverty. Thirty-one per cent of students go to school hungry, while 19 per cent go hungry at least one day a week.
According to Eurostat data from the EU Statistics Office, 24.7 per cent of children under the age of 18 in the EU live at risk of poverty and social exclusion, while in Turkey this rate is 45.2 per cent. Turkey ranks highest among 29 countries.
80 per cent of schools lack “drinkable water”
According to the Student Parent Association, children in at least 60,000 of Turkey’s 75,467 primary and secondary schools do not have access to free drinking water.
According to a report by Oksijen newspaper, children in this situation have three options: bring a water bottle to school, buy bottled water from the canteen for 10-20 TL, or, for those who cannot afford it, drink from toilet taps, which poses a health risk.
Other important developments of the week are as follows:
85% of the 100 lira tax is paid by low-income earners
In Turkey, low-income earners pay 85% of the total tax, while holding companies and financial institutions pay only 15% of every 100 lira tax. The state did not collect 1 trillion 476 billion lira in 2023 and 2 trillion 210 billion lira in 2024 from institutions through exemptions and waivers. This year, the amount waived will be 3 trillion lira. Tax experts pointed out that the budget would show a surplus due to the debts written off as a result of discounts and exemptions.
In the first seven months of last year, the total tax paid by 1,165,695 corporate taxpayers was recorded as 480 billion 178 million lira. In the same period this year, the total tax paid by 1,210,519 corporate taxpayers was 550 billion 871 million lira.
The average corporate tax paid by 1.2 million corporate taxpayers was calculated as 455,000 lira for seven months. However, these companies include huge holding companies and banks. The announced profits are in the billions. The tax that a citizen buying a standard car would pay, excluding petrol and motor vehicle tax, is at least 750,000 lira.
Consumer confidence in the economy declined in September
The consumer confidence index announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) declined in September 2025. The confidence index was below 100 points, indicating a lack of confidence. According to data obtained from the consumer sentiment survey conducted in collaboration with the Central Bank, the index stood at 84.3 in August and declined by 0.4 per cent to 83.9 in September.
This decline revealed that households’ expectations regarding both the current and future economic situation had deteriorated. The 0.4 per cent decline observed in September indicated a weakening in consumers’ spending and saving tendencies. Among the sub-indices, the most significant decline was in the current household financial situation. This index, which stood at 70 points in the previous month, fell to 67.8 this month. The decline was 3.2 points.
Central Bank: Inflation will be high in September
The summary of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by Fatih Karahan on 11 September has been published. The summary stated that consumer inflation could be high.
The most noteworthy part of the summary was the following assessment regarding consumer inflation:
“Food prices and high inertia in service items are keeping upward pressure on inflation alive. According to preliminary data, developments in service and food prices stand out in consumer inflation in September. Indicators suggest that the main trend may rise somewhat during this period. Adjusted for seasonal effects, monthly service inflation is expected to increase, led by the back-to-school effect. This month, the back-to-school effect is having widespread impacts on service sub-items. Prices are rising in transport services due to education services and school transport fees, driven by private university fees, while increases in dormitory fees appear to be pushing up accommodation prices in the restaurant-hotel group. Increases in nursery fees are reflected in the other services category. As pricing in these service categories is generally done once a year, this can result in high price increases in the aforementioned sub-categories during these periods. Furthermore, private university fee increases, which were reflected in the previous year’s price index in August and September due to the registration period, will only be reflected in September this year. According to preliminary data, food prices are relatively unfavourable, partly due to supply-side factors caused by drought. Unprocessed food prices are rising due to developments in products such as vegetables, white meat and eggs, while processed food prices are rising, led by items such as liquid oils and dairy products. On the other hand, the increase in consumer items other than food is following a more moderate trend.
According to the OECD, we will be the inflation champions in 2026
In its Interim Report on the Economic Outlook, the OECD raised its 2025 inflation forecast for Turkey by 2.1 percentage points to 33.5 per cent. It also predicted that Turkey would rank first among countries in 2026 with 19.2 per cent inflation. According to the OECD’s update, Turkey will close this year as the country with the second-highest inflation after Argentina.
In 2026, it will be the inflation champion among member countries. The OECD’s year-end inflation forecast for 2026 has also been raised from 18.5 per cent to 19.2 per cent. Accordingly, Turkey will be the country with the highest inflation in 2026. Argentina’s inflation is expected to fall to 16.5 per cent in the same year.
The real sector does not believe inflation will fall
According to the results of the Central Bank’s ‘Sectoral Inflation Expectations’ survey for September, households’ annual inflation expectations fell from 54 per cent to 53 per cent.
The percentage of households expecting inflation to fall over the next 12 months decreased from 27.6 per cent to 27.4 per cent. The real sector’s inflation expectation for the next 12 months was 36.80 per cent.
In a social media post, Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara stated that the real sector’s inflation expectations are still high compared to market participants, saying, ‘Inflation expectations are coming down, but it is observed that the real sector is not yet convinced. With this picture, it is not easy to be optimistic about inflation.’
Agricultural inputs rose by 3.7% in July
The rise in agricultural inputs, one of the most important factors in food inflation, continues. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced the Agricultural Input Price Index (Agriculture-GFE) data for July. According to this, the index rose by 3.68 per cent in July compared to the previous month, by 22.22 per cent compared to December last year, by 34.22 per cent compared to the same month last year, and by 31.83 per cent compared to the 12-month average.
71% of citizens do not believe their economic situation will improve
According to the August report of the “Monthly Data Bulletin Istanbul Barometer” by the Istanbul Planning Agency (IPA), affiliated with the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB), the most discussed topic at home last month was economic problems, at 40%. Accordingly, the topic that most preoccupied Istanbulites at home was economic problems, at 40%. Economic problems were followed by forest fires at 15.3% and the opening of schools at 6.5%.
40.4% of participants thought the economic situation in the country would worsen, 37% thought it would remain unchanged, 44.1% thought their own economic situation would remain unchanged, and 26.6% predicted it would worsen.
Of those using credit cards, 33% said they could only pay the minimum amount, 8.8% said they could not pay anything, 5.1% said they could pay an amount between the minimum and the full amount, and 5.5% said they could pay less than the minimum. 47.6% stated that they were able to pay off their entire monthly credit card debt.
“Purchasing power is shrinking, poverty is becoming permanent”
CHP Deputy Chair Gamze Taşcıer responded to Labour and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan’s statement regarding the minimum wage, ‘The minimum wage has increased 119-fold in nominal terms and 242 per cent in real terms since 2002,’ saying, “The real issue is not the increase in wages, but the erosion of purchasing power. The AKP is perpetuating poverty by selling workers false hopes.”
“The Palace spends the wages of 72 workers every hour”
CHP Mersin MP Gülcan Kış said, ‘The Presidency spent 9 billion 219 million lira between January and August 2025. This amounts to 37.9 million lira per day, or 1 million 580 thousand lira per hour. In other words, the palace consumes the wages of 72 workers every hour.’
Gülcan Kış said the following in her written statement regarding the budget realisation for the first eight months of 2025: “A worker works for a month, and the palace consumes his salary in a minute. This is your justice, this is the face of the AKP government. While the Directorate of Religious Affairs urges citizens to be patient, it lives in luxury with vehicles worth millions. They spent billions of lira in the first eight months. Education should have been this country’s top priority. The Ministry of National Education’s total expenditure falls short of the palace’s expenditure. If a state that cannot provide its students with one free meal, that cannot solve the nutrition problems of poor children, is pouring billions into the palace and luxury vehicles, then conscience and justice have ceased to exist there.”
The erosion of purchasing power has made credit cards a lifeline
Credit cards have become the only way for citizens to sustain their livelihoods. Millions of people who cannot make ends meet with their incomes are dependent on credit cards. As of July, there are a total of 136.7 million credit cards. On average, each of the 61.7 million people aged 20 and over has 2.2 credit cards.
According to a special report by Birgün newspaper, the average debt per person has reached 61,791 TL. In July, 214,000 people used a credit card for the first time. Twenty per cent of credit card users have a card limit between 250,000 and 500,000 lira. The crisis of inability to pay debts is increasing the rate of receivables in default on personal credit cards. The default rate on personal credit cards, which was 2.5 per cent in July last year, reached 4.2 per cent in one year.
In spending with personal credit cards, instalment-free spending on daily needs has increased significantly. According to Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) data, instalment-free spending with credit cards has reached twice the level of instalment spending. According to the latest weekly data, out of 2 trillion 506 billion 839 million lira in individual credit card spending, 1 trillion 611 billion 388 million lira is made up of instalment-free spending.
Citizens are sinking deeper into debt every day
As purchasing power erodes day by day, individuals are sinking deeper into debt with each passing day. According to the Central Bank’s weekly money and banking statistics, consumer loans increased by 1.6 per cent compared to the previous week, reaching 5 trillion 49 billion 826 million 564 thousand lira in the week ending 12 September.
Those who had difficulty accessing credit turned to credit cards. Individual credit card debts soared to 2 trillion 506 billion 393 million 428 thousand lira. Personal loans led the way in consumer loans, amounting to 1 trillion 876 billion 71 million 322 thousand lira. Of the individual debts, 615 billion 399 million 227 thousand lira were mortgages and 51 billion 962 million 587 thousand lira were car loans.
Along with the debts, the amount of receivables that banks took into follow-up also increased. As of 12 September, receivables under follow-up rose by 4 billion 409 million lira compared to the previous week, reaching 481 billion 12 million lira. A special provision of 355 billion 258 million lira was set aside for receivables under follow-up.
Turkey ranks 33rd in the Global Retirement Report
In the Global Retirement Report prepared by the Global Intelligence Unit, Turkey ranked 33rd among 44 countries. Turkey fell to last place in the “Security and Integration Index” and also lagged behind Namibia in the “Quality of Life Index”. The area where it performed relatively well was the “Economy Index”.
Unemployed university graduates have an income of 4,000 TL
According to the 2025 Youth Expectations and Orientations Survey published by the research company Youthall, the percentage of students living with their families rose to 44.2%, while the percentage of graduates rose to 76.7%. Graduates stated that they were trying to live on an income of 4,000 TL or less.
According to the survey, the percentage of students living with their families rose from 40.5 per cent in 2024 to 44.2 per cent this year. The picture is much more striking among graduates. While 69.7 per cent lived with their families last year, this figure rose to 76.7 per cent in 2025.
While 66% of students stated that they receive regular financial support from their families, 1 in 5 students has to make ends meet on a weekly income of £1,000 or less. In general, students mostly have a budget of between £4,000 and £8,000 per month. 50.8% of graduates looking for work are trying to live on an income of £4,000 or less per month. The proportion of those who can afford to rent remained at 11.1 per cent among students and 11.8 per cent among graduates.
The confidence index fell in one sector, rose in two
The confidence index fell by 0.1 per cent in the service sector in September compared to the previous month, while it rose by 0.4 per cent in the retail trade sector and 3.6 per cent in the construction sector. TÜİK announced the confidence indices for services, retail trade and construction for September.
Accordingly, the seasonally adjusted confidence index decreased by 0.1 per cent in the service sector to 111, increased by 0.4 per cent in the retail trade sector to 109.2 and rose by 3.6 per cent in the construction sector to 88.3 in September on a monthly basis.
The state is selling off everything it has
The last remaining assets in the state’s possession are being sold off one by one. The wave of privatisation that began with the closure of factories is now continuing with land and real estate. The government has met its budget target for real estate sales in the first eight months of the year, and valuable public assets are rapidly being transferred to private companies.
According to a special report by Birgün newspaper, real estate sales worth 11 billion 207 million 262 thousand lira were made between January and August this year. Real estate sales, which amounted to 8 billion 141 million 131 thousand lira in the same period last year, increased by 37.7 per cent.
Land and property sales accounted for 4 billion 361 million lira of the total real estate sales. In addition, thousands of hectares of land that had been ‘removed from forest boundaries’ on the grounds that they had lost their forest status were also sold. In the January-August 2025 period alone, 3 billion 483 million lira worth of real estate sales were made under 2/B sales. The budget target was 2 billion 669 million lira. Thus, sales exceeded the target in the first eight months of the year.
Gold is advancing with record highs and could reach $4,000 per ounce in 2026
Geopolitical risks, concerns about the global economy, central banks’ demand for gold, and expectations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate reduction process are supporting gold prices. The addition of concerns about the Fed’s independence to these developments has accelerated investors’ shift towards gold.
Breaking a historic record by reaching $3,791 per ounce, gold has gained 43 per cent in value since the beginning of the year. The ounce of gold is heading towards its highest annual increase since 1979. In 1979, the ounce of gold earned its investors 126.5 per cent.
Hamad Hussain, Commodity Economist at Capital Economics, said, ‘Increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts, concerns about the bank’s independence and debt sustainability concerns are supporting gold prices to reach record levels.’
Hussain noted that certain supportive factors, such as purchases by major central banks and strong investor demand in China, continue to be the main drivers of the upward trend. He indicated that the upward trend will continue and that the price of gold per ounce could reach $4,000 next year.
Banks are collecting deposits and raising interest rates
Banks with real person TL deposit ratios below 60 per cent are working hard to collect deposits to avoid paying penalties. To do this, they are offering interest rates above the policy rate set by the Central Bank.
Despite the policy interest rate being at 40.5 per cent, banks are offering interest rates of up to 46 per cent in order to reach the 60 per cent TL deposit ratio.
According to an article by Ekonomim writer Şebnem Turhan, banks continue to offer high deposit interest rates despite the Central Bank’s interest rate cuts in July and September.
The reason for this is the TL deposit targets imposed on banks as part of macroprudential measures. Banks with real person TL deposit ratios below 60% are working hard to collect deposits in order to avoid penalties.
The number of companies established decreased, while the number of companies closed increased
The number of companies established in Turkey decreased by 0.7 per cent in August compared to the same month last year, while the number of companies closing increased by 5.2 per cent. The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey announced the statistics on companies established and closed in August.
Accordingly, the number of companies established in August decreased by 5.9 per cent compared to July, falling from 9,788 to 9,210. During the same period, the number of companies closing down also decreased by 34.6 per cent, reaching 1,900. In July, 2,905 companies had closed. In August, the number of companies established decreased by 0.7 per cent compared to the same month last year, while the number of companies that closed increased by 5.2 per cent.
New additional tax on car imports
According to the Presidential Decree published in the Official Gazette, in accordance with World Trade Organisation rules and international obligations, for passenger car imports from countries other than the European Union and countries with which Turkey has a Free Trade Agreement, the higher of 25 per cent or a minimum of 6,000 US dollars per unit will be levied on conventional and hybrid (excluding plug-in) cars, and the higher of 30 per cent or a minimum of 8,500 US dollars per unit will be levied on plug-in (externally chargeable) vehicles, 30 per cent or a minimum of 7,000 US dollars per unit, whichever is higher, and for electric vehicles, 30 per cent or a minimum of 8,500 US dollars per unit, whichever is higher, will be applied as an additional tax.
Turkey’s 100 fastest-growing companies announced
The 100 companies with the fastest sales revenue growth among applicants in Turkey between 2021 and 2023 have been announced. The average turnover growth of Turkey’s 100 fastest-growing companies was recorded at 1,644 per cent. Deeptech Universe Savunma ve Bilişim Teknolojileri AŞ, based in Ankara, which increased its turnover by 19,153 per cent in the 2021-2023 period, ranked first.
Oscar Holding declared bankruptcy
Oskar Holding, a long-established energy company operating since 1976, declared bankruptcy due to debts exceeding 2 billion Turkish Lira. By court order, the group’s subsidiaries, which had also been involved in the Akkuyu NGS and Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ) projects, were placed into liquidation.
France’s credit rating downgraded for the second time in a week
France’s credit rating has been downgraded for the second time in a week amid a political crisis. Following Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the country’s credit rating from AA− to A+, Morningstar DBRS also made a similar downward revision. On 19 September, Morningstar DBRS downgraded France’s long-term credit rating from ‘AA (high)’ to ‘AA’ and changed its outlook from “negative” to ‘stable’.
A statement from Morningstar DBRS indicated that the country’s credit ratings could be upgraded if the government structurally improved its fiscal position and sustainably reduced its debt ratio. The statement cited political instability as the main reason for the downgrade, with the growing public deficit and debt ratio cited as other reasons.
China pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the first time
China has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the first time by 2035. Referring to US President Donald Trump’s statement at the United Nations that ‘climate change is a hoax,’ President Xi Jinping said, ‘Green transformation is the trend of our times. The international community must stay on the right path.’
Fitch upgrades Italy’s credit rating
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Italy’s credit rating from ‘BBB’ to ‘BBB+’ and set the rating outlook as ‘stable’.
In a statement, Fitch said the upgrade was driven by ‘increased confidence in Italy’s fiscal trajectory,’ noting that ‘a stable political environment, continued reform momentum and declining external imbalances have further strengthened Italy’s credit metrics.’
It was noted that ‘a gradual reduction in the budget deficit is expected during the 2025-2027 period thanks to structural revenue increases and tight spending control.’
Tax debate for the wealthy in Europe: Wealth tax or inheritance tax?
Growing inequalities in Europe have reignited the debate on taxing the wealthy more. Experts emphasise that direct wealth taxes generate low revenue, while capital and inheritance taxes are fairer and more effective. Turkey is cited as an example in the report. It is noted that Turkey is among the countries that impose low taxes on capital gains.
The Murdoch family, Dell and Oracle may acquire TikTok
US President Donald Trump announced that Rupert Murdoch, his son Lachlan Murdoch, Michael Dell and Oracle founder Larry Ellison could be involved in a deal that would allow TikTok to continue its operations in the U.S.
Under the agreement, TikTok’s management would be removed from ByteDance, data would be stored at Oracle, and Americans would hold a majority on the board of directors. However, the details are still unclear; Trump said the process was discussed in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and must be completed by 16 December.
Warren Buffett’s BYD decision causes shares to plummet
Legendary investor Warren Buffett’s recent sudden moves frequently make headlines and cause share prices to fluctuate. This time, Buffett’s company sold all its shares in Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD, in which it began investing 17 years ago. Following the decision, BYD shares, which had gained more than 4,500 per cent in value over 17 years, experienced a sharp decline.
Pfizer enters the weight loss race with a $7.3 billion acquisition
The new trend in the healthcare sector is the weight loss market. Those wishing to join this trend are increasing day by day. Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer is set to acquire obesity drug manufacturer Metsera for $7.3 billion after its own drug failed in clinical trials. According to the Financial Times, the deal will be announced shortly.