Can Baydarol
The Orbán era in Hungary, which was said to be never-ending, has come to an end. Those who thought that even if he couldn’t win at the ballot box, he would overturn it and refuse to relinquish power—with Trump backing him and Putin offering his support—were mistaken. Hungary’s new Prime Minister, Peter Macar, secured 138 of the 199 seats in parliament, dealing Orban a heavy defeat. To be fair, once it became more or less clear where the election results were heading, Orban at least managed to congratulate his rival. Will Orbán’s political career continue from here? With 138 seats—representing a two-thirds majority in parliament—it looks unlikely, as this gives Macar the power to amend the constitution.
So, how different is Macar from Orbán? Looking at Macar’s political background, some have commented, “Actually, there isn’t much difference.” Yes, he is a conservative politician who has been active in Orban’s party. But there is a significant difference. As mentioned in the title of this article, he came to power by defending the Copenhagen criteria set by the EU in 1993, rather than the Budapest criteria established by Orban. In other words, he ran his campaign and was elected as a politician who championed democracy, human rights and the rule of law. To put it another way, the Hungarian people – particularly the young – chose to stand behind a new leader who offered them a predictable future, rather than bowing to powerful imperialist forces; a leader who embraced the EU rather than opposing it.
One of the most striking comments made was: “The liberal right won against the far right, and the left were the happiest.” Those who lost, however, were those who supported the argument that concepts such as democracy, human rights and the rule of law are now a luxury, and that what truly matters is the power dictated by realpolitik.
Naturally, the Brussels authorities are among the happiest. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s congratulatory message is the clearest indication of this situation. Furthermore, von der Leyen’s emphasis on having learnt sufficient lessons from the Orbán era and the need to shift from unanimity to qualified majority voting in the stagnant field of foreign policy emerged as a sign that Brussels has breathed a sigh of relief. The good news for Hungary, however, is the announcement that EU funds previously blocked due to Orbán will be released. In other words, if Hungary follows through on what it promised during the campaign, funds will flow into the country. In this context, the Hungarian government’s first move—demanding the resignation of all judicial officials—was seen as a significant first step.
Is the EU beginning to move away from succumbing to far-right policies? The success of the Left in the recent French local elections, or Marine Le Pen’s heavy defeat, and the fact that the constitutional amendment sought by the Meloni government in Italy was blocked by a referendum, can essentially be seen as signs that the winds are beginning to shift. Likewise, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s stance against Trump and Netanyahu appears to be increasing sympathy for the left within the European public sphere. Yes, he may not be a Hungarian leftist, but the values he defends are closer to left-wing values than to authoritarian/despotic right-wing ones.
So how will this election affect us? Can a parallel be drawn between the future of Turkey and the departure from power of Orbán, whose practices in the fields of democracy and the rule of law are often compared to those in our country? It is still far too early to comment. In this context, let us listen to the commentary of one of the opposition commentators.
“Yes, Orbán had trampled the rule of law underfoot; yet, at least he hadn’t had the leader opposing him thrown into prison!” We shall wait and see. Will we be able to recall the Copenhagen criteria rather than the Ankara criteria? As we said, it is too early to comment. So, what will the relations between Hungary under Orbán’s leadership and our country be like? We’ll have a better chance of understanding this during the NATO Summit in Ankara this June. However, Erdoğan’s disappointment at losing his loyal ally Orbán is clear. It’s telling that, as I write these lines, he has still not sent a congratulatory message to the new Hungarian Prime Minister.
Let’s turn to the US/Israel-Iran front.
For the time being, the negotiating table appears to have been shelved. The US announcement that it will close the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian vessels using the US Navy is being viewed by Iran as a breach of the ceasefire. Orbán’s election may have allowed the majority of the world to breathe a sigh of relief, but the news coming from the Iranian front continues to be disheartening.
Will Trump and Netanyahu face the same fate as Oban?
We shall all continue to wait with hope…