Levent Gürses
The Central Bank has announced that Turkey’s total gross external debt has risen to $539 billion. The amount of external debt due to mature within the next 12 months—and which must be repaid or rolled over as a matter of urgency—stands at $239.5 billion.
Consequently, the ratio of the total debt (domestic + external debt) of all actors in Turkey (the public sector, the financial sector, companies and households) to national income (GDP) has reached 91 per cent. Although this debt-to-GDP ratio is well below the average for developing countries (229 per cent) and the global average (306 per cent), it represents a significant milestone in terms of reaching the full level of national income…
All sectors are trapped in a debt spiral
Both the public and private sectors, as well as households and individuals, are increasingly trapped in a debt spiral… The state, private companies and banks are forced to continuously issue new bonds and secure syndicated loans from the outside world (financial centres such as London and New York) just to keep the wheels turning.
The real sector needs to take on 110–115 dollars of new debt each year just to service its existing 100-dollar debt. When interest rates rise in global markets or Turkey’s credit default swap (CDS) spread increases, these companies’ production costs skyrocket directly. In other words, they are completely dependent on global moneylenders and banks to import goods and keep their factories running.
The state, meanwhile, is compelled to borrow in dollars and euros from international markets to cover budget deficits, fund infrastructure projects and repay maturing Eurobonds.
Citizens, for their part, are knocking on banks’ doors to take out consumer loans simply to make ends meet, as this debt burden and the high-inflation environment have eroded the public’s purchasing power. When wages are not enough, the credit card becomes a ‘new wage’. Due to wages being eroded by inflation, citizens are covering their grocery shopping, bills and most basic needs not with cash, but with their credit card limits.
Consequently, a cycle of ‘paying off debt with more debt’ is taking place: a personal loan is taken out from one bank to pay the minimum repayment on another bank’s credit card. As interest rates rise, it becomes possible to pay only the interest on the debt, rather than the principal. Due to consumer loans, credit cards and debt restructuring schemes, millions of households have already handed over their income for the next 12 to 36 months – money they have not yet earned – to the banks.
Companies’ foreign exchange deficit hits a record high of 206 billion dollars
The Central Bank has published data on the foreign exchange assets and liabilities of non-financial firms for June. According to the figures, the net foreign exchange position deficit of non-financial firms rose by 2 billion 342 million dollars compared with the previous month, reaching 205 billion 755 million dollars in June 2026. According to the data on the foreign exchange assets and liabilities of non-financial firms for June 2026, firms’ foreign exchange assets fell by 140 million dollars compared with May, whilst their liabilities rose by 2 billion 202 million dollars.
Commenting on the fact that companies’ net foreign exchange deficit has reached a record high of 206 billion dollars, economist Mustafa Sönmez stated: “Companies are borrowing in foreign currency, thinking ‘Mehmet Şimşek is printing foreign exchange anyway, and he won’t give this up easily’, and their credit-heavy liabilities are heading towards 400 billion dollars.” Once foreign exchange assets are deducted, the net deficit stands at 206 billion dollars as of June 2026. This record burden also serves as a means of blackmail for the AKP administration. It is a threat: ‘If you do not control the foreign exchange, we will all go up in flames like tinder.’ Due to this pressure, attempts are being made to keep the wheels turning by enduring high interest rates. “There appears to be no policy or tool in sight to narrow the net deficit,” he wrote.
A dangerous, self-perpetuating cycle
This three-pronged structure creates a dangerous, self-perpetuating cycle: when companies borrow at high interest rates from global markets, they raise the prices of the products they produce. This situation fuels domestic inflation and drives up the cost of living.
Faced with a rising cost of living, the public turns to loans and credit cards from local banks to make ends meet. To be able to lend more to the public and to fund their own resources, banks draw down more syndicated loans (external debt) from global markets.
Consequently, everyone—from the public sector right down to the ordinary citizen’s wallet—is being drawn into a vicious cycle of chronic debt dependency and cash flow management.
External debt has reached an all-time high
Turkey’s external debt stock has reached an all-time high. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has published external debt statistics for the second quarter. According to these figures, Turkey’s total gross external debt stock rose by 3.5 per cent compared with the previous quarter, reaching $539 billion. The external debt stock has broken the all-time record.
The debt stock, which stood at 485 billion 293 million dollars in the same period last year, recorded an annual increase of 11.1 per cent. This figure stood at 475.8 billion dollars in the same quarter of 2023, when Mehmet Şimşek took office as Minister of Treasury and Finance.
Short-term external debt rose by 2.5 per cent compared with the previous quarter to 170 billion 700 million dollars, whilst long-term external debt increased by 3.9 per cent to 368 billion 200 million dollars.
Whilst public and private sector debt recorded increases, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB)’s debt showed a decrease. Public sector debt rose by 3.3 per cent compared to the previous quarter to $197.9 billion, whilst private sector debt increased by 4.2 per cent to $318 billion.
Private sector debt, at $318 billion, accounted for approximately 59 per cent of the total external debt stock, whilst public sector debt stood at $197.9 billion.
The external debt stock and its ratio to GDP by year are as follows:
2021: $451.5 billion (GDP ratio: 53 per cent)
2022: $459.2 billion (GDP ratio: 31 per cent)
2023: $482.6 billion (GDP ratio: 29 per cent)
2024: $515.5 billion (GDP ratio: 39 per cent)
2025: $519.9 billion (as a percentage of GDP: 37 per cent)
Q2 2026 (June): $539.0 billion (as a percentage of GDP: 32 per cent)
Debt due for repayment within one year: $239.5 billion
On the other hand, the total external debt service due for repayment or rollover within the next 12 months (July 2026 – June 2027) stands at $239.5 billion, whilst the total debt with a maturity of less than one year amounts to $170.7 billion.
The main contributors to this $239.5 billion debt service are as follows: the banking sector, accounting for one of the largest shares at $74.9 billion, whilst the real sector stands at $72 billion.
Consumer loans and credit card debt are constantly rising
Debt has also driven citizens into a payment crisis. The weekly bulletin published by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) once again highlighted the level reached by personal debt.
The value of consumer loans increased by 23 billion 266 million lira in a single week. The total value of consumer loans taken out by citizens has risen to 3 trillion 446 billion 536 million lira. Of this amount, 2 trillion 583 billion 229 million lira comprised personal loans, 821 billion 956 million lira comprised mortgage loans and 41 billion 352 million lira comprised car loans.
Debt also rose on credit cards, to which citizens forced into debt have turned. Individual credit card debt rose by 2 per cent in one week, reaching 3 trillion 430 billion 409 million lira. The value of debts placed under bank collection due to non-payment also rose by 5 billion 433 million lira during the same week. The outstanding balance of debts under collection reached 833 billion 304 million lira. A specific provision of 621 billion 551 million lira was set aside for these receivables.
Other significant developments of the week were as follows:
August surge in gold prices
As at the close of trading on Thursday 27 August, the spot price of gold stood at 4,604 dollars per ounce, having gained 1.88 per cent over the week and 14.3 per cent over the past month. After reaching as high as $4,696 at the start of the week, the price of gold entered a consolidation phase and fell to $4,565 by Thursday.
Gold’s recovery began on Wednesday 19 August following the US Treasury Department’s intervention in the bond market.
In an unexpected move, the US Treasury doubled its buy-back programme from $38 billion to $56 billion in an effort to slow the rise in long-term bond yields. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the programme could be expanded further, sending a psychological signal to the market that the Treasury could ‘increase interventions if necessary’. The buyback plan coincided with US public debt exceeding $40 trillion for the first time.
Alongside the intervention in the bond market and positive economic data for gold, investment demand also began to recover. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw inflows of $3 billion in July and increased their holdings by 23 tonnes. The recovery continued into August. On Thursday 20 August alone, investors added approximately 18 tonnes to their gold holdings, marking the strongest daily buying activity in nearly a year.
The price of an ounce of gold jumped by 4.4 per cent in a single day (19 August) to $4,523 and continued to rise in the days that followed.
Investors are in a holding pattern; the direction will be determined by the Fed’s stance
Gold is in a holding pattern as investors await new policy signals from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday 28 August, and the direction of the market is therefore yet to be determined…
Investors are awaiting Warsh’s first speech at Jackson Hole for clues regarding the Fed’s approach to bringing inflation back to its target level. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 38 per cent probability of an interest rate hike in September, whilst the likelihood of a rate hike by December remains above 70 per cent.
Furthermore, although US inflation figures were slightly higher, global debt concerns continue to underpin demand for the precious metal. Data released on Wednesday showed that the PCE price index rose by 3.7 per cent year-on-year in July, slightly exceeding expectations.
ING Bank: Has gold made a comeback?
Following gold’s sharp rally last week from its July lows, there is speculation as to whether this recovery will continue. Spot gold prices were trading at $4,672 per ounce at midday on Monday 24 August, up 1.5 per cent from Friday’s close. As of Monday 24 August, gold prices have risen by 5.7 per cent over the past week and by 15 per cent over the past month.
The Netherlands-based ING Bank noted that a recovery in the gold market—supported by renewed investment demand and growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook—would not be straightforward, given persistent inflation and the likelihood of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve.
In an analysis dated 21 August, authored by Ewa Manthey and published on ING Bank’s website, it was noted that gold prices had risen from around $4,000 per ounce in mid-July to approximately $4,600, returning to levels last seen in May, and the following view was expressed:
“This latest move came following the US Treasury Department’s decision to increase purchases of long-term government bonds. The maximum size of buybacks of 10- to 30-year bonds will rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled that the programme could be expanded further. The impact on the bond market was short-lived, and long-term yields subsequently recouped a large portion of their losses. However, gold continued to strengthen.”
The analysis emphasised the bank’s view that “Gold’s resilience shows that the rally is not merely a reaction to low yields. The prospect of larger Treasury buybacks has refocused attention on government borrowing and fiscal credibility. It has also reignited concerns about the currency’s depreciation and strengthened gold’s appeal as a store of value.”
Morgan Stanley: Gold to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2027
The US investment bank Morgan Stanley stated that gold had reached its fourth-quarter target earlier than expected and forecast that it would rise above $5,000 per ounce next year. However, according to the bank, this will not be a smooth progression.
The bank’s report stated that “the path for the price of gold per ounce to rise above $5,000 in 2027 and experience volatility” is clear. Accordingly, the reduced likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates has revived demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), leading to an inflow of 70 metric tonnes in July and August following outflows of 93 tonnes in May and June. Morgan Stanley analyst Amy Gower wrote: “Gold has reached the $4,450 per ounce level we forecast for the fourth quarter faster than expected.”
ING: US Treasury may intervene in the bond market again if necessary
It was noted that, based on the US Treasury Department’s strategy of doubling its buy-back programme from $38 billion to $56 billion to slow the rise in long-term bond yields, it had “sent a psychological message that it could step up interventions if necessary”.
In an analysis titled “Interest Rate Volatility: The Treasury’s Post-Maturity Plan” published on ING Bank’s website on 20 August, it was noted that by doubling its buy-back programme to prevent long-term Treasury yields from rising excessively, the US Treasury Department signalled to the markets that it would not allow yields to spiral out of control. The analysis included the comment: “Whilst this move does not constitute monetary easing, the fact that the increased buybacks are financed through short-term bond issuance reduces the net supply of long-term bonds, thereby limiting the pressure for interest rate rises.”
The purchasing power of money in Turkey has fallen by 89 per cent in six years
The wave of inflation has seriously eroded the purchasing power of money. Based on OECD data, the current purchasing power of 100 dollars in 2019 was examined across 35 countries. Turkey ranks at the bottom of the list as the country where money has lost its value the most. The purchasing power of 100 dollars in Turkey has fallen below 11 dollars.
The OECD conducted a collective assessment of this global inflation six years on and highlighted the impact of inflation on different countries based on the purchasing power of 100 dollars at the end of 2019. No country has been spared from inflation, with the US being the most prominent example. The situation in Turkey has been far more severe than in any other country. According to the OECD’s calculations, based on the purchasing power of 100 dollars at the end of 2019, that same 100 dollars today has the purchasing power equivalent to 77 dollars from that time in the US. In Switzerland, the purchasing power of 100 dollars is over 93 dollars, making it one of the countries least affected. In Turkey, however, the current purchasing power of 100 dollars at the end of 2019 is 10 dollars and 93 cents – less than 11 dollars. This means that the purchasing power of money in Turkey has eroded by 89 per cent.
Among the 35 countries examined, Turkey was the country where inflation eroded the value of money the most severely. According to the data, the current purchasing power of a basket of goods and services worth 100 dollars at the end of 2019 in Turkey has fallen to as low as 10.93 dollars. With a 89.07 per cent loss in purchasing power, Turkey has become the country hardest hit by the cumulative effects of inflation.
US public debt hits record high of $40 trillion
This is actually last week’s news, but it’s important: the US national debt has reached $40 trillion. Borrowing is rising very rapidly. The debt, which increased by $8.5 trillion during former President Joe Biden’s term, has already risen by $3.8 trillion under Donald Trump. When Trump took office in January 2025, the debt stood at around 36.2 trillion dollars.
Japan holds 1.1 trillion dollars of US debt. The United Kingdom holds 940 billion dollars. China has slipped to third place with 633 billion dollars.
The Strait of Hormuz effect on oil: Brent crude fell to as low as 84 dollars a barrel
Expectations that talks between Iran and Qatar could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices down. A barrel of Brent crude was trading at $88.52 by the close of trading on Thursday 27 August, having lost 3.7 per cent over the week. During the week, the price of a barrel of Brent crude fell as low as $84.74. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to $83.55, with a weekly loss of 3.67 per cent.
Oil prices retreated on expectations that talks between Iran and Qatar could pave the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and alleviate supply disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East
A 5.36 TL reduction was applied to the price per litre of diesel
Following the fall in oil prices, a 5.36 TL reduction was applied to the price per litre of diesel as of 27 August. Despite the reduction in diesel prices, there was no change to petrol prices.
With the 5.36 TL reduction in diesel prices, the price per litre fell to 77.37 lira in Istanbul, 78.47 lira in Ankara, 78.76 lira in Izmir and 80.21 lira in the eastern provinces.
There was neither a reduction nor an increase in petrol prices. A litre of petrol is sold for 74.35 lira in Istanbul, 75.3 lira in Ankara, 75.59 lira in Izmir and 76.93 lira in the eastern provinces.
Turkey’s CDS at its lowest level in six months
Turkey’s 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread has fallen to 217 basis points, reaching its lowest level since 18 February. The CDS spread has fallen to 217 basis points, reaching its lowest level since 18 February, driven by expectations that geopolitical risks in the Middle East may ease and the impact of measures taken regarding domestic liquidity management.
Ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to affect global economies. Reports that the US government is preparing to send diplomats back to some of its embassies, which were evacuated during the clashes with Iran, and statements by mediating countries suggesting that negotiations between the parties could resume, have boosted optimism regarding a potential agreement.
The impact of gold on reserves: Exceeding 188 billion dollars
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB)’s total reserves rose by 4 billion 949 million dollars compared with the previous week, reaching 188 billion 449 million dollars in the week ending 21 August. Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at 75 billion 166 million dollars on 14 August. As at 21 August, the Central Bank’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell by 938 million dollars to 74 billion 228 million dollars.
During this period, gold reserves also rose by 5 billion 886 million dollars, climbing from 108 billion 334 million dollars to 114 billion 221 million dollars. The 5 billion 886 million dollar increase in gold reserves was the main driver of the rise in total reserves.
JP Morgan: Interest rates will fall in September barring any political surprises
JP Morgan reported that the loss of momentum in inflation and the improvement in the current account balance in Turkey have provided the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) with scope to begin cutting interest rates from September onwards. According to JP Morgan, the Central Bank could begin cutting interest rates in September without making any changes to its exchange rate policy.
The bank noted that carry trade positions originating from abroad have reached $47 billion. It was stated that this situation creates a market positioning risk, thereby reducing the markets’ capacity to absorb any negative surprises stemming from domestic politics, inflation or energy prices.
Karabat criticises hedge funds: “The horse has bolted”
Özgür Karabat, an MP for the New Party in Istanbul, highlighted that the portfolio value of hedge funds had risen from 2.23 trillion TL at the end of 2024 to 6.21 trillion TL by July 2026, and called for an investigation into fund-share relationships and the true beneficiaries.
Karabat stated that, according to his own calculations, there was potential for gross management fees exceeding 100 billion TL between 2025 and the first seven months of 2026, adding, “The rules are now being tightened. But the horse has already crossed the bridge.”
195.9 billion TL in losses from public enterprises
In 2021, the ‘operational loss’ of public enterprises – the term for which was changed to ‘assignment expenses’ on the grounds that it ‘created a negative perception in the public eye’ – reached 200 billion TL. The seven-month operational loss of TKİ, EÜAŞ and BOTAŞ – organisations burdened with additional tasks to conceal the deepening crisis – stood at 195.98 billion TL.
According to a report in the Bir Gün newspaper, the operational loss – the name of which was changed to ‘assignment expenses’ in 2021 due to the ‘negative perception’ it created in the public eye – exceeded 195 billion TL in the January–July 2026 period.
It was observed that EÜAŞ was the public economic enterprise that incurred the highest losses due to operational assignments during the January–July 2026 period. Under the seven-month operational loss, 108 billion 581 million TL was transferred from the central budget to EÜAŞ. BOTAŞ followed EÜAŞ in terms of the magnitude of its operational loss. BOTAŞ’s loss arising from operational obligations was recorded in the financial statements as 83 billion TL. TKİ was also among the public economic enterprises that incurred losses during the January–July 2026 period. The loss incurred by the organisation due to unforeseen cost increases and operational obligations was recorded as 4 billion 399 million TL.
The dream of retirement has given way to the necessity of working
Whilst millions of pensioners in Turkey are struggling to make ends meet on meagre monthly pensions, the number of those forced to work in old age is also rising. Approximately 5.1 million pensioners receive a monthly pension of 23,552 lira; however, those who cannot make ends meet struggle to find work due to their age, even when they seek employment.
According to the findings of labour economist Prof. Dr Aziz Çelik, whilst there are approximately 17 million pensioners in Turkey, the number of pensioners in formal employment stands at around 2.2 million. Of the 8.5 million pensioners participating indirectly in the labour market, 6.3 million are either working informally or unable to find work.
Approximately 5.1 million pensioners receive the minimum monthly pension of 23,552 lira. In addition to these, millions of other pensioners are struggling to make ends meet on a monthly pension that is just one or two thousand lira more than this.
Over 16,000 companies closed down in 7 months
The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) has released statistics on companies established and wound up in July. According to the figures, the number of companies established in July fell by 1 per cent compared with June, dropping from 9,639 to 9,540. During the same period, the number of companies that closed down also fell by 18.4 per cent to 2,686.
In June, 3,293 companies had closed down. In the first seven months of the year, the number of companies established rose by 7.4 per cent compared with the same period last year, reaching 66,602. During the same period, the number of companies that closed down fell by 2.5 per cent to 16,170.
In July, the number of companies established fell by 2.5 per cent compared with the same month last year, whilst the number of companies that closed down fell by 7.5 per cent over the same period.
Food prices are rising; a warning about a global food crisis has been issued
As food prices have risen sharply on international commodity markets, the US investment bank JP Morgan has issued a warning about a food crisis. Among food commodities traded on US futures markets, the price of rice has risen by 50.7 per cent since the start of the year (26 August), US-grown wheat by 41.4 per cent, soya bean oil by 37.4 per cent and maize by 19.8 per cent. On the London market, the price of wheat has risen by 27.2 per cent since the start of the year, whilst the price of sugar has risen by 20.9 per cent.
With agricultural commodity prices on the rise, warnings have been issued of a food crisis next year. A report by the US investment bank JPMorgan, dated 18 August and titled ‘Food Security is National Security: A Growing Storm’, highlights that global food costs could rise by 5 per cent in the first half of 2027. There are two main reasons for the food shortage forecast by JPMorgan: a fertiliser shortage and a massive weather event…
Investments in the $549 billion artificial intelligence market are set to exceed one trillion dollars
Astronomical figures are being cited regarding the size of the artificial intelligence market and the expenditure and investment that tech giants will make in artificial intelligence. Whilst it is stated that the global artificial intelligence market will reach $549 billion by 2025, spending on artificial intelligence by major tech giants such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon is expected to reach $760 billion this year. It is estimated that global artificial intelligence investments will exceed one trillion dollars this year.
According to a study titled ‘Global artificial intelligence market size between 2020 and 2032’, published on 20 August by the Germany-based data and statistics platform Statista, the global artificial intelligence market reached $548.79 billion in 2025.
In another study by Statista dated 31 July, it is forecast that AI expenditure this year by companies referred to as ‘Big Tech’ – including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon – will reach 760 billion dollars.
Meanwhile, a report dated 7 August by the US-based investment bank Goldman Sachs emphasised that global AI investments are expected to exceed one trillion dollars this year. According to Goldman Sachs’ research division, it is forecast that of the one trillion dollars in AI-related investment worldwide in 2026, 581 billion dollars will be in the US. It was highlighted that the majority of companies investing outside the US are based in China and South Korea.
OECD: The future of agriculture faces increasing water risks
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that the future of agriculture is “facing increasing water risks”. According to the OECD’s report titled ‘The Water Challenge in Agriculture’, the future of agriculture will be shaped by water scarcity, excess, quality and the stability of the natural systems that supply water.
The report emphasises that farmers and food systems worldwide are facing increasing water risks, including more frequent droughts and floods, declining water quality, degraded freshwater ecosystems and changing rainfall patterns. “At the same time, due to global food supply chains, water risks in one region can affect prices and food security elsewhere,” the report states.
Accordingly, approximately 11 per cent of rain-fed agricultural land and 14 per cent of pastureland are frequently affected by drought, whilst more than 60 per cent of irrigated agricultural land is experiencing high water stress. Furthermore, excessive water is at least as damaging as drought and affects approximately 10 per cent of agricultural land each year due to flooding.
US economy grew in line with forecasts
The US economy grew by 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of this year, in line with forecasts. The US Department of Commerce has released its second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the April–June period.
According to this, US GDP rose by 1.5 per cent on an annualised basis in the second quarter of this year. Preliminary data published last month had also forecast that the US economy would grow by 1.5 per cent in the second quarter.
The US economy had recorded growth of 2.1 per cent in the first quarter of this year. The growth of the US economy in the second quarter was driven by increases in consumer spending, exports and investment, which were partly offset by a decline in public spending. Imports also rose during the same period.
US 50 per cent tariff on Canadian imports comes into force
The US 50 per cent tariff on approximately $20 billion worth of goods imported from Canada came into force after trade talks between the two countries failed to reach an agreement. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that they were suspending the negotiations, whilst stating that they would also take retaliatory measures.
Goldman Sachs: European companies are defying global shocks with highprofits
It was emphasised that companies listed on European stock exchanges are defying global shocks with strong profit growth. According to investment bank Goldman Sachs’ research report dated 20 August, titled ‘European Equities Defy Global Shocks with Strong Earnings Growth’, earnings per share in the STOXX Europe 600 index rose by an estimated 14 per cent in the first half of 2026 and are expected to increase by 15 per cent for the full year.
The report states that, led by foreign investors, inflows into European equities are at their highest level since 2021. According to Goldman Sachs Research, whilst companies are recovering from the effects of the global energy shock and boosting their profitability at a robust pace, investors purchased European equities at their highest level in five years during the first half of 2026.Robust European economies, earnings in the energy sector and major thematic shifts such as spending on technology, energy, defence and infrastructure are supporting European equities.Sharon Bell, senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, noted that this performance demonstrated that the market’s perception of Europe as a region hampered by weak profit growth is more myth than reality. Bell wrote, “The widespread narrative that Europe is struggling to generate earnings growth is increasingly at odds with the data,” and added: “Earnings per share growth in the first half is on track at its strongest pace in the last three years, and is occurring despite a renewed energy supply shock.”