Can Baydarol
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu himself stated that Israel’s attack on the Abu Zuhur Military Airbase in north-western Syria, approximately 70 km from the Turkish border, was a direct message to Turkey. According to Israel’s defence doctrine, Syria must remain under Israeli hegemony, and any power capable of replacing Iran in the region must not threaten Israel’s interests.
In the face of this attack and these statements, which are clearly playing with Turkey’s nerves, conspiracy theories of dubious credibility were immediately put forward. Accordingly, Netanyahu – who is bound to lose ground in the Israeli elections on 27 October – is seeking to win votes by escalating tensions with Turkey. Similarly, such tension would also suit the People’s Alliance, which fears losing power in the event of a possible early or brought-forward election in Turkey; this is, in fact, a situation being supported behind the scenes. Speaking of elections, we must also take into account the US elections due to take place on 3 November. In particular, the Trump administration, which does not wish to find itself in a ‘lame duck’ position in the US, is obliged to factor in the influence of the Israel lobby to the very utmost.
Whilst I cannot say for certain how true the saying ‘do not believe in conspiracies, but do not remain without them’ is, when one considers the extent to which Trump kept the promises he made to Erdoğan at the recent NATO Summit, neither have the CAATSA sanctions been lifted, nor has there been any progress on the F-35 or F-16 files, nor have we witnessed any developments regarding the aircraft engines that were expected to be supplied. In other words, Trump’s promises will remain on hold until the elections are over.
So, will the situation change once the elections are over? It does not look as though it will change much. Even if Trump becomes a lame duck, as long as the US’s foreign policy priority remains to support Israel at any cost, and as long as the Israel lobby remains so insistent in its opposition to Turkey, it seems nothing will change. If Netanyahu leaves, will Israel’s approach to Turkey change? As long as Israel’s defence doctrine remains unchanged, and given the potential successors to Netanyahu, we should not pin too much hope on that either.
So, is Turkey a country that can be so easily sidelined and pushed around by both the US and Israel? Objectively speaking, no, but when one listens to the approaches of current politicians—which can reach levels of madness—the danger is ever-present.
Whilst keeping this perception of threat constantly in mind, if we ask the question, ‘Is it only Israel that is playing with our nerves?’, we must not overlook Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration. When we consider that Israel is seeking to forge alliances with these countries – particularly given that Greece (especially the Aegean islands) and Southern Cyprus have been turned into US arms depots – we witness our nerves being further frayed.
Is that all? Unfortunately, no. There are by no means a few who wish to drag us into the Russia-Ukraine war, which is dragging on in the Black Sea and is beginning to affect our interests even more. In particular, it is, regrettably, a distinct possibility that the UK and the US – who seek to establish a sphere of influence against Russia in the Black Sea – will make a move to render the 1936 Montreux Straits Convention null and void.
Amidst this bleak picture, the fact that we have so far resisted succumbing to serious provocations can be viewed as a positive development. But will we be able to maintain the same ‘wisdom of state’ (that unquestionable state wisdom) in the face of new provocations? Unfortunately, there are concerns on this point as well. If a sudden incident on the front line (such as a Turkish aircraft taking off in response to a new Israeli attack, or a missile deliberately exploding within Turkish borders, etc.) were to trigger the rules of engagement, would this leave us facing an unstoppable scenario that could escalate all the way to war? We hope not, but we must not forget the fact that major wars often begin with minor incidents.
Judging by the fact that even US Ambassador Barrack – whose words we have always met with scepticism – is concerned about the current situation and has issued messages of common sense beyond what one might expect from him, the cauldron in our region is boiling. It is a fact that there is a greater need than ever for sensible diplomatic approaches and initiatives.
Naturally, this bleak outlook must also be assessed in the context of new energy dynamics and supply chain security issues.
Without casting any further gloom, I shall bring this article to a close here and set off on a short holiday to catch my breath.
In the hope of returning to write again and to find a more optimistic Turkey and world situation…