Istanbul, August 27 (HNA) – The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that the future of agriculture “faces growing water risks”.
According to the OECD’s report titled ‘The Water Challenge for Agriculture’, the future of agriculture will be shaped by water scarcity, excess, quality and the stability of the natural systems that supply water. The report emphasises that farmers and food systems worldwide are facing increasing water-related risks, including more frequent droughts and floods, declining water quality, degraded freshwater ecosystems and changing rainfall patterns. “At the same time, due to global food supply chains, water risks in one region can affect prices and food security elsewhere,” the report states.
Accordingly, approximately 11 per cent of rain-fed agricultural land and 14 per cent of pastureland are frequently affected by drought, whilst more than 60 per cent of irrigated agricultural land experiences high water stress. It also found that excessive water is at least as harmful as drought and affects around 10 per cent of agricultural land each year due to flooding:
“These risks reinforce one another: dry, hardened soil causes rain to run off rather than being absorbed; consequently, drought paves the way for flooding; whilst degraded wetlands and rivers have lost their natural ability to regulate the water balance from the outset. Tackling water risks is not merely a matter of having the right data. The real issue is whether the information reaches the right person in time to influence a decision.”
The OECD report, which emphasises that a country’s ability to forecast, monitor and manage water risks lies at the heart of agricultural resilience, highlighted that new tools—ranging from satellite-based crop monitoring to artificial intelligence-supported water quality forecasts—have expanded countries’ capacity to anticipate and monitor the water risks facing agriculture. It stated:
“Nevertheless, shortcomings persist, and the way decisions are made is of critical importance. Agriculture faces numerous and interrelated pressures linked to water availability, quality and ecosystem health. Water scarcity: Drought remains the most devastating natural disaster for agriculture. Whilst approximately 11 per cent of rain-fed agricultural land and 14 per cent of pastureland frequently face drought, more than 60 per cent of irrigated agricultural land is located in regions experiencing high water stress. Water scarcity reflects both changing climatic conditions and rising demand.”
The report also emphasises that heavy rainfall, flash floods and flooding can be just as devastating as drought, noting that “in some countries, wheat production is more sensitive to excess water than to drought. Whilst soil waterlogging affects approximately 10 per cent of global agricultural land each year, extreme storms can also seriously disrupt crops and livestock systems,” the report warned, whilst highlighting the following point regarding “poor water quality”:
“Poor water quality, due to salinity, nitrates, pesticides and emerging pollutants, can reduce yields, harm livestock, degrade soils and, in some cases, render water sources unusable for agriculture.”
According to the report, which also draws attention to the degradation of freshwater ecosystems, wetlands, forests, rivers and lakes provide vital services upon which agriculture relies – ranging from regulating flow and recharging aquifers to filtering pollutants and supporting biodiversity:
“Yet freshwater ecosystems are under increasing pressure. Since 1700, the world has lost 3.4 million km² of inland wetlands. To put this into perspective, this area is roughly equivalent to the land area of India. The loss of these ecosystems is weakening the natural infrastructure that supports resilient agriculture.”
The report emphasises that, in a globalised food system, water risks in one region can rapidly translate into food security issues elsewhere. It states: “Trade helps to mitigate local water shocks or shortages by enabling countries to source food from international markets,” and adds:
“However, this means that when countries rely on production from regions with high water risk, they may unwittingly import that risk as well. Droughts in major exporting countries can disrupt supply chains and drive up food prices. Long-term depletion of groundwater in key production regions could threaten future supply stability. Understanding these cross-border risks is becoming increasingly important for national food security strategies.”
According to the report, which also notes that real-time flood and drought monitoring systems could support earlier intervention in emerging risks, satellite-based crop monitoring can estimate crop water use across large areas, whilst digital twins of river basins can simulate water management scenarios; meanwhile, AI-supported systems can predict changes in water quality.
The report also noted that in situations where data is limited or swift action is required, simpler indicators may be more useful, adding: “Transparency regarding uncertainty is equally important. Forecasts and models can create a false sense of certainty if their limitations are not clearly stated. The key point is that water risk information is merely one input in real-world decision-making. Social values, legal frameworks and political priorities are also important,” it stated, continuing:
“Ultimately, anticipating water risks is not just about better tools, but about better decisions. Governments are in a unique position to create the conditions under which water risk information can support effective action.
“By adopting a holistic and long-term perspective on water risks, public authorities can shift planning from short-term crisis response to sustainable agricultural resilience. Governments can strengthen the data ecosystem. Hydrological, meteorological and water quality monitoring systems are public goods that form the basis of many risk assessment tools. Governments can improve coordination and information sharing. As water risks are widespread across sectors and jurisdictions, they require inter-agency cooperation and information that is accessible to farmers and other stakeholders.
“Water risks are becoming increasingly dynamic, interconnected and significant for agricultural and food systems. Better risk intelligence can help countries anticipate disruptions earlier, minimise losses and strengthen long-term resilience. Forecasting and monitoring water risks in agriculture is no longer merely a technical exercise. It has become a strategic necessity for resilient agriculture and future food security.”