While constantly losing ground in corruption and lawlessness, we are still in the top 10 despite setting new targets for inflation
Levent Gürses
When January inflation came out high, forecasts changed. The Central Bank raised its inflation forecast from 13-19 per cent to 15-21 per cent. Even if inflation ends the year at 21 per cent and the inflation rates of all countries in the world remain unchanged, we will still be the ninth country with the highest inflation in the world. We were fifth before; we will not have fallen out of the top 10. What an achievement…
Turkey has become a country that consistently ranks at the bottom in every kind of ranking. Most recently, Transparency International published its 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index. The picture is grim: Turkey fell 17 places, ranking among the countries with the sharpest decline. Turkey, which was 107th with 34 points in 2024, fell to 124th with 31 points in 2025. Djibouti, Mongolia, Niger and Uzbekistan scored the same as Turkey. The report emphasised that the situation is persistent due to the deep influence of corruption on political and administrative structures.
There is also the World Justice Project’s annual Rule of Law Index. The 2025 results do not paint a very encouraging picture for Turkey. In this ranking, Turkey is 118th among 143 countries with 0.41 points for 2025. There has been a 1.9 per cent decline in the last year, and Turkey has become one of the fastest declining countries.
It’s not just the economy, the law, and corruption… We are far behind and continuously declining in many international indicators such as press freedom, income inequality, human development index, welfare state, education, and health.
There are around 35 countries in the top ranks of these rankings worldwide, and most of them are in Europe… Forget about joining them; we would celebrate if Turkey were even in the top 100. Discussing the reasons would take too long; the situation of women, education, necessary reforms, etc. We failed to prepare and implement the laws to harmonise with the European Union, which in itself says a lot. Anyway, let’s move on; we will continue with these topics…
Here are the important developments of the week:
Central Bank raises year-end inflation forecast
The first inflation report of the year was announced. Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan announced that the inflation forecast for the end of 2026 had been raised from 13-19 per cent to 15-21 per cent. There were no changes to the interim targets.
Karahan said, “We estimate that inflation will be in the range of 15 to 21 per cent in 2026. Our forecasts for the end of 2027 indicate that inflation will fall to between 6% and 12%. We have maintained our interim inflation targets for 2026 and 2027 at 16% and 9% respectively. We have set our interim target for 2028 at 8%.”
Karahan stated that food inflation has been volatile and emphasised that the stance on tight monetary policy should continue. Regarding rent inflation, he said, ‘Under various scenarios, rent inflation is estimated to be between 30 and 36 per cent by the end of this year.’
Karahan said, ‘Behind the inflation figures, we consider it significant that inertia, which has been persistent for some time in certain service items such as rent, is showing signs of breaking down during this period. Indeed, this development will be one of the key elements in the course of the disinflation process going forward.’
‘Two-month inflation is projected to exceed 7%’
As Nefes newspaper columnist Recep Genel wrote, “Karahan, who announced a 16% inflation forecast in November, has become unable to predict what will happen to those targets before three months have passed. It is already apparent that two-month inflation will exceed 7%.
January inflation had a cold shower effect. Monthly inflation reached 4.84%. In other words, inflation said, ‘I’m not coming down from the peak.’ How? In January 2025, inflation was 5.03%, and in February, it was 2.27%.”
The sharpest decline in industrial production since October 2024
According to TÜİK data, the industrial production index increased by 1.2% monthly in December 2025. However, in December, calendar-adjusted industrial production recorded a 2.1% decrease compared to the same month of 2024 on an annual basis. Thus, the sharpest decline since October 2024 was observed on an annual basis.
Looking at the sub-sectors of industry, in December 2025, the mining and quarrying sector index increased by 1.9 per cent compared to the same month of the previous year, the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector index increased by 2.4 per cent, while the manufacturing industry sector index decreased by 2.7 per cent.
Month-on-month industrial production in December increased by 1.2 per cent compared to the previous month. By sub-sector, in December 2025, the mining and quarrying sector index increased by 1.3 per cent compared to the previous month, the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector index increased by 4.1 per cent, and the manufacturing industry sector index increased by 1 per cent.
Record high on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, where domestic investors account for 37%
The BIST 100 index broke a record on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, exceeding 14,000 points. The BIST 100 closed at 14,180 points on Thursday, 12 February, with a 2.85% increase, surpassing the historic milestone of 14,000 points. The index had risen above the 13,000-point level on 23 January.
The BIST 100, which has been on a rapid upward trend in recent weeks, was positively affected by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan’s statement at the Inflation Report Briefing Meeting, where he raised the target, saying, ‘We estimate that inflation will be between 15% and 21% in 2026.’
As of 12 February, the BIST 100 had risen by 4.9 per cent in the last week, 14.6 per cent in the last month, 25.9 per cent since the beginning of the year, and 43.5 per cent in the last year.
Foreign investors and large portfolios are benefiting from the rise
However, it cannot be said that domestic investors are benefiting from the rise in the stock market, even though their portfolios are large in terms of volume. According to the SPK’s January report, the proportion of domestic investors on the Istanbul Stock Exchange is 37.2 per cent, while the proportion of foreign investors is 62.8 per cent…
Furthermore, while there are 6,556,000 registered investors on the stock exchange, 19,000 millionaires control 86% of the shares. According to data from the Central Registry Agency (MKK), the group of investors with portfolios exceeding 10 million lira consists of 29,611 individuals. The millionaire group holds 86% of the market with a portfolio worth 7 trillion 513 billion 221 million lira.
The total number of investors with portfolios of 1-5 million lira, 5-10 million lira, and over 10 million lira is 325,275, and the total size of the portfolios they manage is 8 trillion 283 billion lira.
The portfolios of 6.2 million small investors are only worth 433 billion TL.
Let’s look at small investors: While there are 6,230,000 investors with portfolios under one million lira, this segment, which constitutes the overwhelming majority of the market in terms of numbers, has a total portfolio of only 433 billion 251 million lira. In other words, despite millions of investors, wealth is concentrated in a limited area, and this segment is benefiting from the rise in the stock market and the broken records.
Preparations for bridge privatisation accelerated: Ernst & Young granted authority
London-based Ernst & Young has been granted authority to manage the multi-billion dollar privatisation process of the Bosphorus bridges and a number of motorways. Previously, an agreement had been reached with Canada-based BTY for technical consultancy.
Preparations for the privatisation of at least nine toll motorways, as well as the Bosphorus Bridge and the Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge, which are among Turkey’s most strategic transport points, have taken shape. Last week, CHP MP Deniz Yavuzyılmaz announced that the government had commissioned a feasibility study from a company called ‘BTY Construction’ with the aim of privatising these two bridges for 25 years.
According to a report by Bloomberg, Turkey has authorised London-based international auditing and consulting firm Ernst & Young to act as an intermediary in the privatisation of the Bosphorus bridges.
A tender had been held before but was cancelled
In 2012, Turkey held a tender to privatise the two bridges and a 2,000-kilometre motorway, which was won by the Koç-Ülker-UEM consortium with a bid of $5.72 billion. However, the deal collapsed after then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described any sale below $7 billion as ‘treason’. Erdoğan said at the time, ‘If I give this away after it has come this far, I would be betraying my country and my people.’
Sources close to the government reported that bids above this figure are expected in the new tender. According to data released by the Ministry of Transport in July, approximately 430,000 vehicles cross each of the two bridges planned for privatisation every day. With the latest increases, a standard car pays 59 lira for each crossing. Both bridges are currently operated by the General Directorate of Highways.
Privatisation revenues are targeted to increase eightfold
The privatisation of bridges was first heard of last year when Bloomberg announced that the Privatisation Administration had invited bids from investment banks. Following this development, the Disinformation Combat Centre, affiliated with the Communications Presidency, issued a statement defending the claims as ‘disinformation’.
However, data from the Medium-Term Programme (MTP) prepared by the government confirms the economic scale of these privatisation preparations. According to the ‘General State Balance’ table in the MTP, the privatisation revenue target of 21 billion lira at the end of 2025 is expected to increase approximately eightfold to 185 billion lira in 2026.
Şimşek responded: Will bridges and motorways be privatised?
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek responded to a parliamentary question from CHP Sivas MP Ulaş Karasu regarding the privatisation of two bridges and a series of motorways in the Bosphorus. In his response, Şimşek argued that the privatisation revenue target in the 2026 Medium-Term Programme was not linked to these projects. Şimşek left unanswered questions regarding privatisation revenues, expenditures, and sold public assets.
Karasu’s requests for numerical information regarding the total revenue generated from privatisation applications carried out between 2022 and 2025, the number of public vehicles and immovable properties sold, and consultancy, audit, and advertising expenditures were not answered. Şimşek also did not answer questions regarding the number of aircraft and vehicles belonging to the Presidency and the cost of this fleet to the public.
‘You don’t sell the goose that lays the golden eggs to get two eggs earlier.’
Özgür Özel, leader of the main opposition CHP party, drew attention to reports that the operating rights of the 15 July Martyrs Bridge and the Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge had been sold to the UK-based international auditing and consulting firm Ernst & Young during a speech at a rally organised by his party in Büyükada, Istanbul.
“We are reaching a point where they are trying to sell one of our most important assets, namely the first bridge, the second bridge and seven motorways. And how they are selling them. The annual revenue of what they say they will sell is $600 million. Ninety-eight per cent profit, two per cent just maintenance and repair costs. They are giving up 25 years of revenue to get 3 billion dollars immediately for a 600 million dollar asset. It’s such a deal that, look, you’ll get the first year’s revenue as normal, you’ll get the second year’s revenue next year, and then the government’s term will be over. In exchange for giving the money that would be earned under CHP rule in the next three years upfront… What I’m trying to say is, if they didn’t privatise the bridges, this year’s and next year’s money would already be in this government’s hands. If someone offers to give three more years’ worth of money on top of that, the AK Party is saying, ‘Let those revenues belong to someone else for 25 years.’
‘Money is needed for election economics’
Özgür Özel continued his remarks as follows:
“No defeated occupying army would inflict such great harm on a country. They wouldn’t do it while fleeing, nor would they do it while leaving. A country’s golden goose is not sold off to get two eggs before they are laid. What has been done is clear. After all these years, the economy has collapsed, and money is needed for the election economy. They want to give away the country’s magnificent 25-year income for a source of around 3 billion. Erdoğan had tried to sell these in 2012, there were major objections, and 5.5 billion dollars had been offered for these bridges and motorways. Erdoğan said, “Selling them for less than seven billion is treason.” Now he is doubling down on that treason. Only 40% of people are aware that the bridges and motorways are to be sold. But 90% of that 40% are against it. I entrust this to our entire organisation. Let no one remain unaware of this. Erdoğan is selling our future, stop him, stop him, stop him. To this end, our Istanbul organisation will run an effective campaign until everyone knows about it. We will run this campaign in all 81 provinces. If you don’t want to pay 300 lira to cross the Bosphorus Bridge, which is currently 59 lira, then oppose it.”
Karasu: We will not allow this giveaway
CHP MP Ulaş Karasu, noting that plans to privatise Istanbul’s bridges and seven motorways have become clearer today, recalled that the annual revenue of the sites slated for sale is 600 million dollars.
Karasu said: “They are giving up 25 years of revenue for just 3 billion dollars to get 600 million dollars immediately. To give up a quarter of a century of the country’s earnings for a price equivalent to five years’ revenue is, as our General Chairman said, something even a defeated occupying army would not do. This sale is a clear admission of an inability to manage the economy and a search for resources for an election economy.”
Karasu also recalled that AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called selling the same assets for less than $7 billion in 2012 ‘treason,’ adding, “Attempting to sell them today for $3 billion is a denial of that statement and of the people’s rights. Bridges and motorways are protected not to save the day, but for the sake of future generations. We will not remain silent about this mistake; we will not give away the nation’s property.‘
’The profit from this privatisation is approximately 5 billion 597 million dollars”
CHP Deputy Chairman Deniz Yavuzyılmaz announced on his social media account that the profit from this privatisation is approximately 5 billion 597 million dollars.
Yavuzyılmaz’s post reads as follows:
“How did I calculate this? Based on the official figures for 2024 in US dollars: 15 July Martyrs’ Bridge; Revenue: 53 million 927 thousand dollars. Expenditure: 1 million 760 thousand dollars. Annual net revenue: 52 million 166 thousand dollars. At the Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge: Revenue: 63 million 186 thousand dollars. Expenses: 3 million 412 thousand dollars. Annual net revenue: 59 million 774 thousand dollars. The total annual net revenue of the two bridges: 111 million 940 thousand dollars. Planned net revenue over the 25-year privatisation period: 2 billion 798 million dollars.
Currently, the total number of vehicles crossing the two bridges annually is 160 million, which is already the maximum traffic density. In this case, if companies win the privatisation tender with an amount below 2 billion 798 million dollars, there will be a direct loss to the public. This is because this amount is already the current net income of the state from operating these two bridges. If they win the tender by adding a profit margin to this amount, they will increase the “vehicle tolls” by the amount of the additional profit they add. This is proof that the bill for privatisation will again be paid by the citizens.”
Yavuzyılmaz: £48 billion in public revenue will be transferred to British and Canadian companies
In another post, CHP member Deniz Yavuzyılmaz argued that the plan to privatise two Bosphorus bridges and seven motorways for 25 years would cause the public at least £48 billion in losses, saying, ‘This is a plan that betrays the future of the country.’
Yavuzyılmaz stated the following in a post on his social media account:
“The AKP, which spouts rhetoric about localism and nationalism, is having the feasibility study for the 25-year privatisation of two public Bosphorus bridges and seven motorways carried out by a Canadian company, and the financing study by a British company. According to the 2026 Performance Programme Report of the General Directorate of Highways, the net profit (own revenue) of the public sector for the two Bosphorus bridges and seven motorways in 2025 is 600 million dollars. Based on this, the net profit for 25 years is 15 billion dollars. The AKP is seeking to collect this amount of money in bulk before the elections.
So, what will the companies gain if these privatisations take place? The companies will earn direct profits proportional to how much below $15 billion they win the privatisation tender. Furthermore, all increases in vehicle tolls over the next 25 years will generate at least an additional $33 billion in profits for these companies. With the Yavuz Sultan Selim Bridge and the Eurasia Tunnel, as well as the 15 July Martyrs Bridge and the FSM Bridge being operated by affiliated companies, all Bosphorus crossings will be under the control of affiliated companies. As citizens become captive customers of these companies for Bosphorus crossings, the companies will raise vehicle tolls without competition.
‘This plan is a betrayal of the nation’s future.’
Ultimately, at least $48 billion will be transferred from citizens’ pockets to these companies’ coffers over 25 years. The companies that win the tender will use 80 per cent foreign loans and 20 per cent equity to pay off their privatisation debts. The Treasury will provide a “debt assumption commitment” for the foreign loans used by the companies. In other words, it will act as guarantor. The London courts will have jurisdiction in disputes. English arbitration will apply. According to the AKP’s plan: if the government changes in the general elections, even if the incoming government cancels these privatisations, the Treasury will still be obliged to repay the loans to these foreign financial institutions.
If the loans are not repaid, these public assets will be mortgaged. All revenues from strategic bridges and motorways will flow abroad to foreign financial institutions. The enormous interest payments to be made to credit institutions will also be passed on to citizens through exorbitant increases in vehicle tolls. This privatisation plan is a plan to betray the future of the country.”
Decline in gold reserves at the Central Bank
The Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) recorded a decline in its reserves last week. In the week of 6 February, the TCMB’s gross reserves fell from $218.2 billion to $207.5 billion, recording a weekly decline of approximately $10.7 billion. During the same period, the TCMB’s net international reserves also declined. Net reserves, which stood at $93.4 billion the previous week, fell to $91.3 billion last week.
Net reserves excluding swaps declined from $82.6 billion to $77.7 billion in the week of 6 February. Thus, all major items of reserves declined on a weekly basis. The Central Bank’s gross foreign exchange reserves decreased by 5.5 billion dollars to 78.09 billion dollars. During this period, gold reserves also decreased by 5.2 billion dollars, falling from 133.8 billion dollars to 128.6 billion dollars.
Petrol prices increased by 1.56 TL
Due to fluctuations in Brent oil prices, petrol, diesel and autogas prices are also changing. The price of petrol per litre increased by 1.56 TL. After the increase, the fuel prices changed as follows:
Istanbul European Side: Petrol price per litre: 57.03 TL, Diesel price per litre: 57.76 TL, LPG price per litre: 30.29 TL.
Istanbul Asian Side: Petrol price per litre: 56.86 TL, Diesel price per litre: 57.58 TL, LPG price per litre: 29.69 TL.
Approved by the Grand National Assembly: Significant increase in traffic fines
The Bill Proposing Amendments to the Highway Traffic Law, which envisages changes to the Highway Traffic Law and consists of 36 articles, has been approved by Parliament. The new traffic fines will come into effect on the date of publication of the law. According to the proposal, those driving without a licence will be fined 40,000 lira. Those driving while their licence has been provisionally revoked or cancelled will be fined 200,000 lira. Fines for red light violations will be increased in stages. Those who commit a red light violation for the second time within one year of the date of the last violation will be fined 10,000 lira, those who violate for the third time will be fined 15,000 lira, those who violate for the fourth time will be fined 20,000 lira, those who violate for the fifth time will be fined 30,000 lira, and those who violate for the sixth time will be fined 80,000 lira. The administrative fine imposed on drivers found to be driving under the influence of alcohol has been increased from 700 lira to 25,000 lira. For those whose driving licence is revoked due to driving under the influence of alcohol, the penalty for a second offence has been increased from 877 lira to 50,000 lira. For the third and subsequent violations, an administrative fine of 150,000 lira will be imposed.
BİSAM: Poverty line exceeds 100,000 lira threshold
The United Metal Workers’ Class Research Centre (BİSAM) has published its Hunger and Poverty Line report for January 2026. According to the report, prepared using a new methodology, the monthly expenditure required for a family of four to eat a healthy and balanced diet has reached 31,296 lira. The poverty line, which includes all essential expenses such as education, health, housing and transport, has been set at 102,812 lira.
According to BİSAM data, the total daily cost of healthy nutrition for a family of four was calculated as 1,043 Turkish lira. It was emphasised that the total cost of healthy nutrition for the family budget was 31,296 Turkish lira and that this amount represented only the necessary expenditure on food. In daily expenditures for the January 2026 period, the highest cost group was milk and dairy products, with a requirement of 326 lira. This group’s share of total food expenditures was 31.3 per cent. The second highest cost group was fruit and vegetables, with 294 lira and a 28.2 per cent share.
Workers’ wages evaporated before reaching their pockets
The DİSK Research Centre (DİSKAR) announced its wage loss monitoring report, highlighting that wages were eroded by taxes and inflation. According to DİSK-AR’s report, inflation and taxes stole billions of lira from workers’ wages in a single month. Wages eroded by at least 113 billion 18 million lira before even reaching workers’ pockets. Of the wage losses, 41.5 billion lira was due to inflation and 71.6 billion lira was due to income and stamp taxes. Wage losses deepened by 41 per cent in one year.
The report found that workers spent one-fourth of their month working to pay taxes, deductions and inflation. The average monthly wage erosion was 4,882 lira. A worker’s gross wage of 64,163 lira lost 16,266 lira before even reaching their account.
The minimum wage also lost 1,359 lira in purchasing power before it even reached workers’ pockets. The real net value of the minimum wage, which eroded by 19.1 per cent from its gross amount, fell to 26,717 lira. While workers earning the minimum wage lost out, those earning above this amount also lost out due to taxes and deductions.
Retirement is a dream, continuing to work
Due to the significant decline in pension payments, citizens aged 60 and over are either continuing to work or looking for new jobs. The problems faced by pensioners are deepening amid the cost-of-living crisis. According to a report by Havva Gümüşkaya in Birgün newspaper, the number of older citizens seeking work increased in January, when the lowest pension was set at 20,000 lira, below the poverty line and minimum wage.
Citizens aged 60 and over, who have legally reached retirement age, continue to seek employment through İŞKUR. The number of unemployed people aged 60 and over registered with İŞKUR, which was 35,565 in December, increased by 427 to 36,083 in January. The number of job seekers in this age group, which was 30,991 in January 2025, increased by 16.4 per cent in one year. Furthermore, while the number of unemployed people registered with İŞKUR increased, there was also an increase in the number of people aged 60 and over who were placed in jobs through the agency. In January, 1,575 people in this age group were placed in jobs.
On the other hand, the number of pensioners working and paying social security support premiums, who are not shown among active insured persons by the Social Security Institution (SGK), reached 2.16 million as of November 2025. Eighteen out of every 100 pensioners receiving old-age pensions are registered with the SGK and work for an employer for a wage. However, the number of citizens aged 60 and over working in unregistered and insecure jobs has reached an alarming level. According to TÜİK’s third quarter labour force data for 2025, 1,761,000 people aged 60 and over are employed informally.
Fare increases for transport in Istanbul, from taxis to minibuses, buses to Marmaray
The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Council voted to approve a 20 per cent fare increase for public transport in Istanbul and a 25.49 per cent increase for Marmaray and suburban rail tickets. Taxi, minibus and sea transport fares have also increased. The new tariffs will come into effect on 16 February.
The electronic full ticket price for IETT buses, rail systems, metrobus and urban public transport has increased to 42 lira. Student tickets have been set at 20.50 lira, while tickets for those aged 60-65 will cost 30.07 lira. For transfers, the first transfer will cost 31.27 lira, the second transfer 24.02 lira, and the third and subsequent transfers 15.62 lira.
The new tariff will also apply to City Lines and private sea motorboats. The full ticket price on the Bostancı-Adalar line is now 156.26 lira.
In taxis, the meter opening fee has increased to 65.40 lira, the fee per kilometre to 43.56 lira, and the short distance fee to 210 lira.
The shortest distance fare for minibuses, known as “indi-bindi”, has been increased to 39 lira. Accordingly, the fare will be 39 lira for distances up to 4 kilometres, 41 lira for distances between 4 and 7 kilometres, 42 lira for distances between 7 and 11 kilometres, 43 lira for distances between 11 and 15 kilometres, and 47 lira for distances between 15 and 20 kilometres. The student fare for minibuses is now 25 lira.
Ticket prices on Marmaray and suburban lines have been increased by 25.49 per cent compared to current passenger fares. Halkalı-Bahçeşehir and Sirkeci-Kazlıçeşme Suburban Lines: Full fare 34 lira, student 16 lira, discounted student ticket for those aged 30 and over 30.60 lira, and 24.16 lira for those aged 60-65. Marmaray ticket prices have increased to 34 lira for adults, 16.48 lira for students, 30.60 lira for discounted student tickets for those aged 30 and over, and 24.16 lira for those aged 60-65.
New prices will also be applied on İDO Sea Buses. The passenger transport fee on the Sirkeci–Harem car ferry line has been set at 40.39 lira, and the student fee at 24.32 lira. Vehicle crossing fees have increased to 240 lira for cars, 320 lira for minibuses, and 630 lira for buses.
Paramount strengthens its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery
Media and entertainment company Paramount has strengthened its bid to acquire all shares of Warner Bros. Discovery for $30 per share in cash. Paramount announced that if the acquisition is delayed beyond 31 December, it will pay Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders a delay fee of $0.25 per share for each quarter. This payment is estimated to be worth approximately $650 million and is said to demonstrate confidence in the speed and certainty of the regulatory approval process.
Paramount had announced on 8 December 2025 that it had made an offer to purchase all WBD shares for $30 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of $108.4 billion. The WBD Board Of Directors had recommended rejecting Paramount’s acquisition offer.
Security guards and sales staff are most in demand
According to İŞKUR data, the manufacturing industry had the most job vacancies in January, while the highest demand for job placements came from the security and retail sectors.
In the January 2026 period, the highest number of placements by sector was in the ‘Manufacturing’ field of the industrial sector; by profession, the highest number of placements were in the professions of ‘Security Guard, Private Security Guard (Unarmed) and Department Store Assistant’ respectively.
The most sought-after occupations were: Security Guard, Private Security Guard (Unarmed), Department Store Clerk, Service Staff (Waiter), Market Staff, Garment Worker, Cashier, Sales Staff-Consultant, Retail Sales Staff (Food).
Up to threefold increase in property tax
With the new year, increases in property taxes were also observed. The increase reached up to three times in some places, based on factors such as plot size. According to a report by Cumhuriyet Economy Service, a citizen who paid 3,300 TL in property tax in Istanbul in 2023 paid the same tax this year with a threefold increase, amounting to 9,900 TL. Real estate expert Mustafa Hakan Özelmacıklı said that property tax increases were ‘tripled compared to the previous year.’
‘Taxes levied on wealth are negligible’
Tax expert Tuncay Kapusuzoğlu, writing in the Birgün newspaper, clarified the question of who pays the tax. Kapusuzoğlu said, ‘The majority of the tax collected is paid by the general public, who are subject to consumption taxes, and by workers through deductions from their wages. Income and corporate taxes account for 36.54% of total tax revenues; VAT collected domestically and on imports accounts for 29.68%; and excise taxes account for 18.32%.’ These three taxes account for 84.54% of total tax revenues. Looking at the table from another angle, the ratio of direct taxes levied on income, profits and capital is 36.54%; the ratio of indirect taxes based on transactions and expenditure is 62.40%; and the ratio of taxes levied on wealth is 1.06%.
The tax system in our country is largely based on consumption taxes. Taxes levied on wealth, almost entirely consisting of motor vehicle tax, are negligible.
As the need for tax revenues increases, the government turns to consumption taxes such as VAT and excise duty, which affect unorganised and vulnerable broad segments of the population, and where the reactions are ineffective. The taxpayer groups that could be targeted under income tax are traders, farmers, and those who earn capital income. Taxing this organised group at higher rates has never been realised due to the country’s political structure, the ruling party’s voter base, and the reactions it would provoke. The largest share of income tax revenue comes from the deductions made by employers from the wages of working labourers and paid to the state.
Consequently, a group of taxpayers that has not been effectively taxed over the years has emerged. In addition, the scale of untaxed, unregistered activities has also increased over the years. There is a group of taxpayers that cannot be touched. For these reasons, the income tax system has reached its limit, and the government cannot overcome the huge wall in front of it.
Turkey ended the first month of the year with 146 workplace fatalities
According to the ISIG Council’s January workplace fatalities report, 146 workers lost their lives while working last month. Four of these were child workers.
The construction sector saw the highest number of workplace fatalities in January, with 29 deaths. The transport sector was second, with 23 deaths. The metal sector was third, with 16 deaths. Looking at workplace fatalities by sector, 67 workers died in industry, 36 in services, 31 in construction and 12 in agriculture.
The leading causes of death were crushing and collapse in agriculture, construction and metal, followed by falls from height. Sixty-one per cent of these deaths occurred in construction. Third were deaths due to traffic and service accidents, more than half of which occurred in the transport sector.
China’s dollar move to anger Trump
Chinese regulators have advised banks to limit their exposure to US Treasury bond risks. According to sources close to the matter, the decision was motivated by concerns about concentration risk and market volatility. According to a report by Bloomberg, Chinese authorities called on financial institutions to limit their purchases of US government bonds and asked banks with large bond holdings to reduce their positions. However, this guidance does not cover the Chinese state’s official US Treasury holdings.
It was reported that this recommendation, which was verbally communicated to some of the country’s major banks in recent weeks, stemmed from concerns that high positions in US public debt could expose banks to sharp price fluctuations. These concerns parallel the ongoing global debate about the ‘safe haven’ status of US bonds and the appeal of the dollar.
Prices in China have been falling for 39 months
Stagnant consumer prices and falling producer prices in China continued in the first month of the year. While Turkey is battling high inflation, China is facing deflation.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2 per cent year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4 per cent. Deflationary pressures continued to be felt in the country, with stagnant consumer prices and a persistent decline in producer prices. The increase in the CPI slowed compared to last month’s 0.8 per cent rise, while the decline in the PPI was milder than last month’s 1.9 per cent drop.
China’s foreign exchange reserves reached $3.4 trillion
China’s foreign exchange reserves reached $3 trillion 399 billion in January. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that the country’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $41.2 billion from the previous month to $3 trillion 399 billion at the end of January 2026. The value of reserves recorded a 1.23 per cent increase compared to the previous month.
Two companies making their mark on the stock markets
The indirect shareholdings of BlackRock and Vanguard, the world’s largest asset management companies, in the shares of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Tesla) that drive the US stock markets are increasing.
In this context, BlackRock and Vanguard, two of the world’s largest asset management companies, are the top two institutional investors in most of these companies through the index funds and ETFs they manage, trailing only the founders in Amazon and Tesla.
When examining shareholding ratios, it was observed that Vanguard holds a 9.3 per cent stake and BlackRock holds a 7.95 per cent stake in Nvidia, the US chip manufacturer with a market value exceeding $4 trillion. At Apple, Vanguard holds a 9.72 per cent stake and BlackRock holds 7.8 per cent, while at Alphabet, Vanguard holds 9.09 per cent and BlackRock holds 7.37 per cent. At Microsoft, Vanguard holds a 9.67 per cent stake and BlackRock holds 7.98 per cent. At Amazon, Vanguard’s share is 7.9 per cent and BlackRock’s share is 6.76 per cent, while at Meta, Vanguard holds 9.14 per cent and BlackRock holds 7.66 per cent of the shares. At Tesla, Vanguard stands out with a 6.9 per cent share and BlackRock with a 5.5 per cent share. Bezos’s share in Amazon was calculated at 8.25 per cent, while Musk’s share in Tesla was 11 per cent.
Preparations for oil shipments from Russia to Cuba
It has been reported that Russia is preparing to ship crude oil and fuel to Cuba in the near future. According to a report in today’s Izvestia newspaper, citing Russia’s Embassy in Havana, the shipment is planned to be carried out as humanitarian aid.
Cuba is experiencing a serious fuel shortage due to steps taken by the US to cut off the country’s oil supply. The island nation, under communist rule, recently warned international airlines that jet fuel could no longer be obtained in the country. This situation indicates that conditions in the country are rapidly deteriorating.
In the past, Cuba met most of its jet fuel needs from Venezuela. However, after the US blocked the South American country’s oil exports in mid-December, no crude oil or refined products were shipped to Cuba from that country.
After gold, now copper: Stockpiling race disrupts the market
According to Goldman Sachs, increased ‘insurance-driven’ demand from governments and private sector investors for industrial metals such as copper, as well as gold, is causing fragmentation and sharp price fluctuations in global commodity markets. Goldman Sachs’ assessment suggests that the historic rise in gold prices is not solely a movement specific to precious metals; it is part of a broader shift in how governments and investors approach commodities.
The bank’s analysis indicates that central banks’ purchases to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks have driven gold prices higher in recent years. Similar ‘insurance’ strategies are now beginning to emerge in other commodity markets.
The report states that following the supply chain disruptions in 2020 and the food and energy shocks in 2022, many countries have focused on securing access to critical raw materials. In this context, measures such as customs tariffs, export restrictions, support for domestic production and increased state stockpiling have been implemented.
Other important developments of the week are as follows:
Liquid oil giant Yudum has been sold. After approximately 1.5 years of negotiations, the shares of Yudum, which has been operating under Savola Gıda since 2007, have been transferred to Tiryaki Agro.
US-based transport network company Uber is acquiring Getir’s food, grocery, market and water portfolio in Turkey. Uber announced that it will initially purchase Getir’s entire food delivery business for $335 million in cash.
TPAO’s doors are opening to US monopolies: Following ExxonMobil, an agreement has been signed with Chevron. Turkey Petroleum Inc., which sat down with ExxonMobil last month, today signed a new agreement with Chevron. The two companies plan to engage in joint production on land and at sea.
It was announced that over 2 million people are subject to legal proceedings due to credit and credit card debt. The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) has introduced the right to restructure debt for up to 48 months. Applicants have three months to apply, and the restructuring process will end at the end of April.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) has announced animal production data. The number of cattle increased by 4.3 per cent compared to the previous year to 17 million 709 thousand in 2025, while the number of sheep and goats rose by 5.4 per cent to 57 million 874 thousand.
Halkbank General Manager Osman Arslan commented on mortgage interest rates, stating, ‘Mortgage costs are currently below 2.5% on a monthly basis. I expect this to reach around 2% towards the end of the year, after the second half.’
Turkish Airlines has launched a discounted ticket campaign for European cities that can be visited without a visa. Under the campaign, return flights to many destinations, from Skopje and Pristina to Belgrade, will be available from 109 dollars between 24 March and 25 June.
The China-based e-commerce platform Temu has started operating in Turkey through WhaleCo following customs regulations. Under the new system, taxes are collected during the purchase, while the company completes customs procedures and delivers the products directly to addresses. The application also has a minimum basket value requirement of 580 TL.
According to Allianz Trade’s Global Insolvency Report, corporate insolvencies are expected to increase by 6% globally in 2025, with high levels expected to continue in 2026. In a period where even large-scale companies cannot escape risk, one major insolvency case was recorded every 18 hours in 2025.
The US and Taiwan have reportedly signed a reciprocal trade agreement that includes tariff reductions, the removal of non-tariff barriers, investments, and purchases in key sectors.
