Levent Gürses
The 2025 Nobel Prizes are being announced. This year’s Nobel Prize in Literature has been awarded to Hungarian author László Krasznahorkai. The 71-year-old author has books such as ‘War and War’, ‘The Devil’s Tango’, and ‘The Melancholy of Resistance’ that have been translated into Turkish.
The Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to Susumu Kitagawa, Richard Robson and Omar M. Yaghi for their work on metal-organic frameworks, which aims to reduce plastic pollution through chemistry.
The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to John Clarke of the UK, Michel Devoret of France, and John Martinis of the US for their work demonstrating macroscopic quantum tunnelling and energy quantisation in electrical circuits.
The Nobel Prize in Medicine was awarded to American researchers Mary E. Brunkow and Fred Ramsdell, along with Japanese scientist Shimon Sakaguchi, for their discovery of the ‘peripheral immune tolerance’ mechanism that prevents the immune system from attacking its own tissues, thereby laying the foundation for a new field of research.
Reaffirming the power of art in the midst of apocalyptic terror
Laszlo Krasznahorkai, winner of the literature prize, received the award for his “effective and visionary” works that “reaffirm the power of art,’ according to the Swedish Academy. The Academy announced that the reason for awarding the prize to the Hungarian novelist was his ‘impressive and visionary works that reaffirm the power of art in the midst of apocalyptic terror.”
Both world politics and the world economy seem to be in an ‘apocalyptic’ state, as highlighted in the Hungarian author’s works…
The problems leading the world to an apocalyptic environment…
Let us list the problems that are leading the world into an apocalyptic environment: the destruction of the earth, climate change, wars and conflicts that cost the lives of innocent children in particular, the threat of nuclear weapons, hunger and lack of access to food, migration, poverty and income inequality, corruption, unemployment and other fundamental problems… Equally important are water scarcity and pollution, global health issues, all forms of exploitation and human rights violations, gender inequality, child poverty, and the lack of access to healthcare, education, and security…
Let us consider the serious economic problems: inflation and interest rates, income inequality, the global debt burden that could cause a major crisis, unemployment, financial and political corruption, the ever-increasing wealth of the rich, China’s rise and the conflicts and possible decline that will follow, the seemingly endless rise of the stock markets, a second Trump term, trade tariffs -trade wars, developing economies failing to grow at the required pace, threats and problems created by the artificial intelligence boom…
Looking only at what happened in the global economy this week, we can easily understand the apocalyptic atmosphere; gold prices broke record after record amid uncertainty and fear of crisis, and no one knows where it will end. The world’s influential leaders emphasised that a possible sharp decline in the stock markets could be dangerous, and that artificial intelligence and the bubble it has created could burst at any moment, leading to a crisis in the global economy. Furthermore, warnings were issued that moving away from the dollar is a worrying development. Bitcoin, which is not supported or backed by governments, has broken a new record, and the dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen to its lowest level in 30 years. The US national debt, exceeding $37.8 trillion, has surpassed 124% of the national income.
Anyway, let’s continue with last week’s summary of the Turkish and global economies:
Gold price exceeds $4,000 per ounce
Gold prices continue to rise unabated, and developments related to gold are gaining prominence in the economic world. Spot gold prices in the London market reached a historic high of $4,059 per ounce on Wednesday, 8 October.
Wednesday’s closing price was also the highest ever at $4,038.90. On Thursday, 9 October, it closed at $3,990 with a slight decline. As of 9 October, gold has provided a historic return of 2% in a week, 9.27% in the last month, and 51% since the beginning of the year.
Reasons for the historic rise…
Global geopolitical and economic risks are the biggest driving force behind this rally… Gold, which has appreciated by 137 per cent in dollar terms over the last three years, reflects investors’ search for a safe haven. Among the reasons for the rise are Trump’s tariffs, the strength of the US dollar, the Fed’s independence, ongoing inflation, Russia’s war in Ukraine and sluggish growth in Europe.
Central banks’ gold purchases are also supporting prices. Annual purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes since 2022. This year, 900 tonnes are expected to be purchased, which is double the 2016-2021 average.
Analyst John Meyer from SP Angel consultancy firm stated, ‘The gold market is experiencing a movement that this generation will only see once.’ Dan Smith, managing director of Commodity Market Analytics, said, “This rally is incredible; it tells us that something bad is happening and we need to be concerned.”
New records and sales also halted in Turkey
In line with the rise abroad, gram gold and other types of gold also broke records in Turkey. On Wednesday, the price of a gram of gold reached 5,420 lira, the Cumhuriyet gold coin 37,700 lira, and the quarter gold coin 9,457 lira.
On Thursday, for the first time in 51 years, gold sales came to a halt in the Grand Bazaar. Many jewellers in the Grand Bazaar and across Turkey were forced to stop selling gold due to the exorbitant price increases. Experts predict that gold will gain value in the future.
According to a report in the Ekonomim newspaper, Mehmet Ali Yıldırımtürk, an expert on gold and currency markets, stated that jewellers in many parts of Turkey, particularly in the Grand Bazaar, had suspended gold sales due to the exorbitant price increases, adding that this was the first time this had happened since 1974: “It has become very difficult to predict prices. I last experienced this situation in 1974. Prices were rising instantly, and we couldn’t keep up with demand. The situation is almost the same now.”
Rally may be facing a correction
However, the gold rally is facing a warning, and investors are concerned about a correction. The rally, supported by expectations of a Fed interest rate cut and the potential impact of a US government shutdown, is showing signs of being overbought, according to analysts. Christopher Wong, interest rate strategist at Singapore-based OCBC Bank, said the US government shutdown was creating a “tailwind for gold prices”. However, Wong believes that if the US government shutdown ends earlier than expected, gold prices could retreat.
On the other hand, experts say the current gold rally is largely supported by expectations of Fed interest rate cuts. However, if inflation rises again, the central bank may be forced to raise interest rates, which could reverse the upturn.
Heng Koon How, Head of Market Strategy at UOB Bank, noted that the “unprecedented gold rally” over the past month has exceeded analysts’ forecasts.
Bank of America is not so optimistic; the bank’s chief strategist, Paul Ciana, stated in a note published at the beginning of the week that investors should be cautious, saying, “The risk of a correction has increased.” Ciana said, “Technical signals and conditions indicate that the uptrend has ended.”
According to Ciana, who says the gold rally has recently entered overbought territory, the rise is now being supported by market momentum rather than fundamental economic data, and this situation increases the risk of a sharp decline in the event of a sudden change in investor sentiment or an unexpected move in monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman Robert Kaplan said that gold’s rise of approximately 40 per cent since the beginning of the year to reach $4,000 reflects deep concerns in the financial markets. Kaplan stated that this sharp rise in gold should not be ignored, describing it as a ‘red light’ in the economic system that warrants attention.
Goldman Sachs’ $4,900 forecast
US investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce. Goldman Sachs cited strong European stock market investment fund (ETF) inflows and potential central bank purchases as reasons for this forecast.
“We still see the risks to our gold price forecast as clearly skewed to the upside, with ETF holdings potentially exceeding our interest rate-based forecast,” it said.
The bank also stated that it expects central bank gold purchases to average 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026.
Steve Hanke: It could reach six thousand dollars
Meanwhile, economist Steve Hanke shared his expectations for gold on his social media account. Hanke made a prediction that has never been heard or seen before. Hanke said, “I predict that the current gold rally will peak at $6,000 per ounce.”
Bitcoin sets a new record
Bitcoin set a new record on Monday, 6 October, surpassing $125,500, due to the impact of increased risk caused by the US federal government shutdown. However, prices subsequently fell. The closing price on Thursday, 9 October, was $121,666.
Bitcoin’s price broke its previous record of $124,480 set on 14 August, driven by supportive regulations from US President Donald Trump’s administration and strong demand from institutional investors.
Jamie Dimon warns of “decline in US stock markets”
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, the largest bank in the US, told the BBC that the risk of a serious decline in US stocks is higher than reflected in the market. Dimon said that a serious market correction could occur within six months to two years, adding that he was ‘much more concerned’ about this than others. Looking at the broader economic picture, he said that risks of the US stock market becoming overheated were increasing.
Dimon emphasised that the US has now become a ‘less reliable’ partner on the global stage and said he remains ‘somewhat concerned’ about inflation in the US. Nevertheless, he expressed his belief that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain independent. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted that there are ‘many factors’ creating an environment of uncertainty, highlighting risk factors such as the geopolitical environment, fiscal spending and the renewed increase in global armament.
Dollar’s share of reserves hits 30-year low
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, as of the middle of this year, the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves fell to 56.3 per cent. The dollar’s share of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves has hit a 30-year low since 1995. The dollar’s share in reserves fell by 1.5 percentage points by mid-year compared to the end of March. This ratio, which peaked at 72.7 percent in 2001, has since declined gradually.
IMF and BoE warn that the “artificial intelligence bubble could burst”
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of England (BoE) have warned that global stock markets face the risk of a sudden correction as the artificial intelligence boom pushes valuations towards dotcom bubble levels.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the optimistic market perception of AI’s potential to boost productivity could ‘suddenly change’ and that such a development could affect the global economy. “Today’s valuations are heading towards the levels we saw 25 years ago during the internet boom,” Georgieva said.
The BoE’s relevant committee also drew parallels with the 2000 crisis that followed the dotcom bubble. The committee said that the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for US equities, a closely watched measure of valuations, was approaching levels seen 25 years ago and was “comparable to the dotcom bubble peak”.
Important warning from Ken Griffin: de-dollarisation is worrying
Ken Griffin, billionaire investor, founder and CEO of Citadel, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, said investors are increasingly moving away from the dollar and starting to see gold as a safer haven. Griffin noted that investors are starting to “de-dollarise” their portfolios, stating that this trend is a serious warning sign for the fundamentals of the US economy and that ‘this is a truly worrying development.’
Inflation is 15 times the EU average, with annual food inflation at 12 times the average
The inflation rate, which was announced last week and has risen again, stands at 3.23 per cent in September and 33.29 per cent compared to the same month last year, dominating the agenda.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan acknowledged the situation, stating that the disinflation process has slowed down and adding, ‘Inflation expectations are declining but still pose an upward risk.’
Treasury and Finance Minister Şimşek said that food prices were the determining factor in September’s inflation, which exceeded expectations. Şimşek said, “With the reduction of seasonal effects and the supply-side policies we have implemented, we will ensure the continuation of disinflation, which is our programme priority.”
In the food and non-alcoholic beverages group, which has the highest weight in the low-income basket, the annual inflation rate was 36.06 per cent, exceeding headline inflation. The expenditure group with the highest annual inflation was education, at 66.10%. Increases in food, education and health items in the sub-expenditure groups were noteworthy.
The inflation rate, determined by the twelve-month average applicable to rent contracts, was calculated at 38.36% for October.
In a bulletin analysing DİSK-AR’s September inflation figures, attention is drawn to the fact that Turkey is the only country in Europe experiencing double-digit inflation, stating that “Turkey is the country with the highest food and average inflation rates among European countries. In Turkey, the average annual inflation rate is 15 times higher than the EU average, while the annual food inflation rate is 12 times higher. According to TÜİK, average prices have increased 33.7 times since 2003, while food prices have increased 47 times.”
Yavuzyılmaz: 694 million tonnes of rare elements are being sold cheaply to the US
Deniz Yavuzyılmaz, Deputy Chair of the CHP and shadow energy minister, said, ‘The AKP’s aim is not to enrich our rare earth elements, which are our national wealth, but to sell these priceless minerals to the US at a cheap price.’ Yavuzyılmaz claimed that the process of negotiating Turkey’s rare earth element reserves with the US had been planned months in advance.
Yavuzyılmaz said, ‘The meeting minutes reveal that the Trump administration views Turkey’s 694 million tonnes of rare earth elements as a strategic target and plans to bring Ankara to the table.’ Referring to the Court of Accounts audit report on Eti Maden İşletmeleri, Yavuzyılmaz accused the AKP of neglecting to establish industrial facilities that would enable the processing of rare earth elements in Beylikova, Eskişehir.
Turkey tops the list in income inequality: 2 out of 10 people are poor, and 6 are in debt!
The General Labour Union, affiliated with DİSK, reported that Turkey ranks highest among European countries in income inequality, with 2 out of every 10 people living in poverty and 6 out of every 10 in debt. According to the union’s report, there has been an increase in child labour, with 17,821,000 citizens in the country being so poor that they cannot meet even their most basic needs.
The report made the following observations: “According to the Turkish Statistical Institute’s Income and Living Conditions Survey, at least 17,821,000 citizens in Turkey are so poor that they cannot meet even their most basic needs. The poverty rate has risen to 21.2 per cent, with 2 out of every 10 citizens now living in poverty. The poverty line has increased 12-fold compared to 2014.
Low minimum wages, heavy taxes and unfair income distribution are increasing working poverty day by day. In 2024, the poverty rate among workers in Turkey is 10.7 per cent. High unemployment is causing this poverty to affect wider groups and families.
Social assistance is heading towards a new record
Between January and August 2025, the expenditure made by the Ministry of Family and Social Services under the name of ‘Fighting Poverty’ caught up with the expenditure made in the whole of 2024. According to Birgün’s report, public expenditure on combating poverty between January and August 2025 amounted to 137 billion 716 million 626 thousand TL. Total expenditure in 2024 was 166 billion 378 million 738 thousand TL.
Of the expenditure on combating poverty in the January-August 2025 period, 84 billion 547 million 255 thousand TL was spent on paying the General Health Insurance (GSS) premiums of citizens without social security.
“Children who are malnourished remain short”
CHP Istanbul MP Ali Gökçek submitted a research proposal to the Presidency of the Assembly requesting an investigation into the problem of stunting caused by malnutrition in children as a result of food inflation and income inequality in Turkey. Gökçek stated, “Parliament must immediately address the issue of malnutrition in infants and children and swiftly implement the solutions proposed by experts and stakeholders.”
Ali Gökçek drew attention to the problems caused by malnutrition in children with the research proposal he submitted to the Presidency of Parliament. In a written statement, Gökçek said, “Children’s unhealthy, inadequate and unbalanced diets, poverty, difficulties in accessing healthy and affordable food, and socio-economic conditions cause various health problems such as weakness, stunting, overweight and obesity, and exacerbate these problems. Stunting negatively affects not only children’s physical development but also their mental capacity, educational achievement, and participation in the workforce in later years. This situation harms our country’s future economic, social, and human development. Looking at the statistics in Children 2024, the percentage of households where children cannot consume fresh vegetables and fruit at least once a day due to financial constraints is 10 per cent, and the percentage of households where children cannot consume a meal containing meat, chicken or fish at least once a day is 23.1 percent.
Port games in trade with Israel
During the period when Israel continued its attacks on Gaza, trade traffic from Turkish ports did not slow down. Between January and September 2025, 456 ship voyages were made from Turkey to Israel, with the highest volume of cargo continuing to be transported from Iskenderun, Mersin and the Gulf of Kocaeli.
Furthermore, following trade restrictions on Israel, Turkey’s increased exports to Greece drew attention. Iron and steel trade increased by 65 per cent annually and 88 per cent in September. This situation reinforced suspicions that shipments were going to Israel via the Port of Piraeus.
The industrial production index increased in August
TÜİK announced the industrial production index for August. According to the data, the industrial production index increased by 0.4 per cent monthly and 7.1 per cent annually in August.
Looking at the sub-sectors of industry, the mining and quarrying sector index increased by 2.6 per cent in August compared to the same month last year, the manufacturing sector index increased by 7.7 per cent, and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector index increased by 6.1 per cent.
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial production increased by 0.4 per cent in the month in question compared to the previous month. Looking at the sub-sectors of industry, in August, the mining and quarrying sector index decreased by 0.1 per cent compared to the previous month, the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and distribution sector index decreased by 2.5 per cent, while the manufacturing sector index increased by 0.7 per cent.
Textile giant closes factory, production moves to Egypt
Colins, one of Turkey’s leading textile brands, has halted production at its Aksaray Organised Industrial Zone facility. The factory, which employed approximately 1,500 workers, has been shut down. It has been reported that production has been transferred to a new facility in Egypt.
It has been claimed that Colins, owned by Eroğlu Holding and one of the largest textile manufacturers in the Aksaray Organised Industrial Zone, has halted its production activities in Turkey.
Approximately 1,500 people were employed at Colins’ factory in Aksaray. However, following the launch of its investment in Egypt, the company has completely ceased production in Aksaray.
300 tradespeople closed their businesses per day
Due to rising costs, rent burdens and declining purchasing power, the number of tradespeople closing their businesses across Turkey exceeded 83,000. The latest data from the Turkish Confederation of Tradesmen and Craftsmen (TESK) revealed the impact of the economic slowdown on tradespeople. The number of businesses closing down in the first nine months of this year increased by 0.71 per cent compared to the same period last year, reaching 83,302.
This figure means that, on average, more than 300 businesses closed their doors every day in the first nine months of the year. In September this year, however, there was a 12.87 per cent decrease in the number of businesses closing compared to the previous year, with the number falling from 10,329 to 9,000.
Debt repayment crisis escalates
According to data from the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), as of August 2025, the volume of non-performing loans in banks reached 503 billion TL in the period ending 1 October 2025, marking a 90% increase over the past year.
The amount of non-performing loans in the manufacturing industry rose by 103 per cent over the past year to 75 billion 850 million TL.
Investigation into Gold Refinery: 20 arrest warrants
Twenty of those detained in the operation targeting Istanbul Gold Refinery Inc. were arrested, while two were referred to the court with a request for judicial control. One person was released.
In the prosecutor’s opinion regarding those detained, emphasis was placed on the crimes of “qualified fraud and membership of an organisation” committed to systematically cause damage to the state within a specific organisation and obtain unjust gains through the gold refining process.
Improvement in the export climate slows down
The Turkey Export Climate Index, announced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO), reached 51.7 in September, indicating that the improvement in external demand conditions continued, albeit with a slight loss of momentum.
With the September data, ISO noted that the uninterrupted improvement in the export climate for Turkish manufacturers continued for the 21st month. The index had reached 51.9 in August. A value above 50 in the index indicates improvement in the export climate, while a value below 50 indicates deterioration.
The financial leasing sector gained 430 per cent in 9 months on the BIST
The BIST 100 index rose by a modest 12.02 per cent in the first nine months on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, with 17 sectors showing positive performance. Financial leasing and factoring stood out with a 430% increase. Tourism increased by 52.97%, real estate investment partnerships by 52.9%, construction by 47.21%, and forestry, paper and printing by 42.21%, making them the other sectors that gained the most value.
Investor interest in emerging markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 28 per cent in the first nine months of the year, its strongest performance for the same period since 2009. The MSCI Developed Markets Index return remained below 17 per cent during the same period.
It is emphasised that investors are flocking to assets in emerging countries due to the weakening dollar and attractive valuations.
European car manufacturers want lower CO2 emission targets
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has proposed that the EU relax its CO2 emission reduction targets for cars, vans and trucks, extend compliance periods and give more space to hybrid vehicles and alternative fuels. ACEA argues that the targets to reduce CO2 emissions from new cars and vans by 100 per cent by 2035 and the 2030 interim targets are no longer feasible.
US raises oil forecast for this year and next
The US has revised its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards following developments in global oil markets. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent crude to average $68.64 this year and $52.16 next year. The average barrel price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to be $65. Last month’s price forecast for WTI was $64.16.
OPEC+ countries to increase oil production
Eight member countries of the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producer countries, decided in November to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, in line with expectations. An OPEC statement reported that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman held an online meeting to assess global market conditions and outlook. The meeting addressed the daily production cuts of 1.65 million barrels announced in April 2023.
Other news of the week:
- The real sector is struggling to keep the wheels turning with debt. The amount of non-performing loans has risen by 90 per cent in a year to 503 billion TL, while the debt repayment crisis is also growing.
- Turkey has secured a 757.1 million euro loan from the World Bank for the rehabilitation and modernisation of its irrigation infrastructure.
- The Treasury cash balance recorded a deficit of 359 billion 887 million lira in September. The nine-month deficit exceeded 1 trillion 638 billion TL. Interest expenses also reached 1 trillion 562 billion TL during this period.
- The minutes of the FED meeting in September were released. At the meeting, some officials called for interest rate cuts, pointing to the weakening labour market; however, they remain cautious about the risk of high inflation.
- According to a report by the think tank Ember, in the first half of 2025, wind and solar energy production surpassed coal-generated electricity worldwide. This historic shift was driven primarily by rapid renewable energy growth in China and India.
- The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has lowered its 2026 global merchandise trade volume growth forecast from 1.8 per cent to 0.5 per cent, citing the delayed impact of new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
- Factory orders in Germany fell by 0.8% month-on-month in August, affected by weak external demand.