Can Baydarol
Unfortunately, many of the articles I wrote last year were rather pessimistic. Taking into account the warnings that ‘You’ve darkened our mood, take a break from writing for a while!’, I intended to take a break from writing for a while. Hoping for a hopeful and optimistic year (away from the keyboard!), I sat down in front of the television on the first Saturday morning of the new year. ‘Oh my God, what is that?’ I couldn’t believe my eyes. The US, as expected, had begun to strike Venezuela mercilessly. After the bombing sounds stopped, the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a pinpoint operation by the “Delta Force” was broadcast live to a global audience glued to their screens.
Let us immediately emphasise that Maduro has no redeeming qualities at this point. Those who remember what I wrote during the contacts between Maduro and President Erdoğan may be aware of my thoughts on him. Maduro, who has plunged his people into misery, who is supposed to have inherited Chávez’s legacy but has nothing to do with that legacy, and who resorts to all kinds of electoral fraud, including imprisoning his opponents, clearly has no redeeming qualities. Therefore, it is important not to confuse Maduro’s identity with what has happened to him.
Let us return to the ‘outlaw’ in the title of this article and the concept of the ‘outlaw state’ that it represents.
As is well known, the Monroe Doctrine, presented to Congress by then-US President James Monroe on 2 December 1823, remained valid throughout the 18th century. It was a doctrine aimed at preventing European colonialists from interfering in the American continent, predicting that only the US could call the shots there, and which Trump has now reclaimed. You may ask, ‘Is there still a threat of European colonialism in the American continent?’ Perhaps Europe is no longer a threat, but China is undoubtedly Trump’s target.
To understand the issue more deeply, let’s fast-forward the film reel a little further. The United States, which was involved in World War II and realised it could no longer manage world affairs with an inward-looking approach, would replace the British Empire, on which the sun never set, and spearhead the establishment of the United Nations (UN) to replace the League of Nations, which proved inadequate in resolving world problems at the end of the war. UN resolutions, with each of the five founding countries (the victors of World War II) having veto power in the Security Council, would form the basis of the legal system we know as international law.
Bringing the US attack on Venezuela before the UN Security Council is meaningless, as it will automatically be vetoed by the US. However, it is clear that the UN system, which guarantees the territorial integrity of countries, has been blatantly violated and that the UN is now also inadequate in resolving problems, opening the door to discussions about a new system. It is also clear from the statements that the Pirate, who has destroyed the international legal system, has violated its own constitutional order, as it should have obtained congressional approval to decide to go to war, but instead justified the attack by framing it as a narcotics issue contrary to US interests.
So what is Haydut primarily after? As far as can be understood, Venezuelan oil, which was nationalised twice during the Chavez era, is the main thing whetting the US’s appetite. US companies taking control of this oil (approximately 17 per cent of the world’s reserves) is a must, especially during the embargo period, to drive away China, the main buyer, from the continent. To this, we must also add the rare earth elements that we encounter in every situation.
Is it all over for Venezuela? The task facing Rodriguez, who has assumed the role of interim president according to the constitution, is far from easy. The army, which is the dominant power in Venezuela, is not so willing to surrender to the US or accept US control of the country through a trustee. In this situation, will Rodriguez side with the US or listen more to the voices coming from the army? Trump wasted no time in threatening Rodriguez, declaring that something worse than what happened to Maduro could happen to him. And what about the Venezuelan people? Where are the people who took to the streets when the coup against Chavez was staged, the people who brought Chavez back?
As far as we can tell, the people trust no one and are waiting for this to end and life to return to normal. But can life return to normal? As long as neither the Venezuelan people nor Trump’s ‘rogue state’ mentality is abandoned, this expectation is overly optimistic for other nations.
So who’s next?
Have pirate betting sites started taking bets?
Unfortunately, the spirit of our times leaves no room for optimism.