Tayfun Özkaya
The world is beset by multiple uncertainties. The north, east and south of our country are engulfed in war. To ensure that all this turmoil and any future crises do not affect our country, we must prepare for the worst-case scenario. Yes, the very worst scenario you can imagine. We must be self-sufficient and resilient to shocks, particularly in the energy and food sectors. Here, I will focus solely on agriculture.
In Turkey, agricultural production is heavily reliant on imports, particularly in terms of inputs. A portion of nitrogen fertilisers is imported. To produce these domestically, we must import natural gas. This requires nearly 3 billion dollars in foreign currency annually.
A similar situation exists with agricultural pesticides (though ‘poison’ might be a more accurate term). Some of these are imported as finished products. To produce them domestically, however, active ingredients or intermediate chemicals are largely imported. This also results in an annual foreign exchange outlay of approximately 2 billion dollars.
Diesel used in agriculture is also a significant input. Crude oil is imported for this purpose. The cost of diesel used in agriculture is around four to six billion dollars annually.
The import-export balance for tractors, agricultural machinery and tools is not particularly poor. However, certain engine and machine parts, as well as precision agricultural electronics, must be imported for domestic production. In the event of a crisis affecting Turkey, domestic production is likely to be disrupted.
Animal production also relies significantly on the import of feed raw materials. Maize and soya are imported specifically for this purpose. Imports account for approximately one-third of the feed produced. Around 3.5–4 billion dollars is spent on feed raw material imports.
A significant amount of foreign exchange is also spent on seed imports. However, foreign seed companies in Turkey also export seeds to neighbouring countries. The balance is not particularly poor. However, the issue we are criticising is not this balance. The policies of these companies that support the industrial agricultural system and their profit transfers are separate issues. We will not go into these here.
In summary, a large proportion of agricultural production in Turkey relies on the import of agricultural inputs or raw materials. Increases in the dollar exchange rate or the prices of these products raise the cost of agricultural produce and consumer prices. As the prices received by farmers rise more slowly, farmers’ incomes are falling. The import of nearly 15 billion dollars’ worth of agricultural inputs or the raw materials needed to produce them annually is no small matter. This accounts for a significant share of our country’s foreign exchange deficit. By 2025, the current account deficit is projected to reach 25 billion dollars. Rising oil prices due to conflicts in our region will further increase these costs in agriculture. We may even face a situation where we are unable to secure inputs such as chemical fertilisers.
The value of agricultural imports exceeds that of exports. However, when considered as the food, beverage and tobacco industries, the trade balance is in surplus. When these two sectors are assessed together, a trade surplus is evident.
We are obliged to import feed raw materials for livestock production, sunflower seeds for vegetable oil, wheat for domestic bread consumption, and wheat for pasta and flour exports. When the import-export balance for wheat and its products is calculated, Turkey runs a net deficit.
We should also note that our pasta exports to developing countries consist of low-quality products, and our export prices are at half the global market level. I have examined this issue in my book “Another Agricultural Policy and Agroecology”. (See www.tayfunozkaya.com for further details)
The time has now come to examine our agricultural production from these perspectives as well. It is clear that we will face serious problems in meeting our food needs in a situation where imports of synthetic fertilisers, natural gas, crude oil, agricultural pesticides, industrial feed, wheat, oilseeds, vegetable oil and live animals are not possible.
Could there be a cost to Turkey becoming largely self-sufficient in agriculture, producing without the need for inputs imported from abroad? We do not believe such a problem would arise; on the contrary, we believe that a transformation in this area would be highly beneficial from economic, public health and ecological perspectives.
An agroecological farming system aims to ensure that Turkey secures the inputs it currently imports mostly as finished goods or raw materials from within the agricultural sector itself (livestock farming is also included in agriculture). Whilst the existing industrial farming system relies on agricultural chemicals, agroecology works in harmony with nature, not against it. For example, it is possible to produce crops—such as wheat and many other field crops—without ploughing the soil, particularly in olive orchards, by using no-till sowing. This technique, known as no-till farming (or reduced tillage), is widely practised in countries such as the USA and Brazil. In our country too, there are a small number of farmers who have been successfully practising this for over 15 years. With no-till farming, the amount of diesel used per decare can be reduced to one-fifth. Chemical fertilisers, on the other hand, cause soil salinisation and destroy the microbial life in the soil. Alternatively, crop rotation, the use of mulch, animal manure, red worm compost and compost may eliminate the need for these chemical fertilisers. Strengthening pastures and ensuring a balanced distribution between livestock and crop production will reduce the need for feed raw materials. It is also possible to reduce and eventually eliminate the use of agricultural chemicals through methods such as polyculture (growing multiple crops) and crop rotation, as well as natural agricultural pesticides. Undoubtedly, all of this can be achieved through a consistent agricultural policy, intensive research into ecological farming techniques, and effective extension work. Although these goals may not be reached in a single year, significant successes can be achieved within five or six years.
Transitioning to agroecological farming will not only ensure that the country’s agricultural production continues uninterrupted even in the worst of times; it will also achieve numerous other objectives, such as reducing production costs, increasing farmers’ incomes, providing consumers with cheaper food, preventing the pollution of soils, water, lakes and rivers, protecting public health, and mitigating global climate change.
The following books may be consulted on these topics:
- T. Özkaya, An Alternative Agricultural Policy and Agroecology, 2025.
- T. Özkaya, M. Y. Yıldız, F. Özden, U. Kocagöz (eds.), 2021, Agroecology: Another Agriculture is Possible, Metis Pub.
- M. Altieri, P. Rosset, Agroecology: Science and Policy, 2022, (Translated by F. Özden) NotaBene Publishing.