Levent Gürses
International indicators are very important; they reveal Turkey’s place in the world and our situation in terms of the economy and social indicators. Let me mention just the two most recent ones. The “Pension at a Glance” report published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) emphasizes that disposable income inequality among the population aged 65 and over in Turkey is “very high,” and we rank 5th among 38 countries in this ranking. According to another OECD indicator, we rank first among OECD countries where people cannot afford to eat meat, chicken, or fish every other day.
As I write this, I keep thinking about what a middle-aged man I met at the market last week said. “Bro, I get it. Meat and cheese are expensive, fair enough, but how can apples cost 100 lira a kilo?” Then we chatted briefly about Turkey being an apple paradise, how no one pays attention to it, how sometimes abundance breaks the branches, how it ends up on the ground, how it used to be the most abundant and cheapest fruit, how 100 lira might be the work of middlemen and wholesalers…
Then I researched why it’s so expensive… The usual reasons: excessive heat, hail, and drought have affected production a bit, with a yield drop of around 15%. Cost is very important, especially transportation, of course. According to a report in Nefes newspaper, fertilizer prices have increased by 120%, diesel by 85%, labor by 70%, and pesticide and packaging costs by over 100%. Apple exports to Russia, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and India have increased by 40%. The profit margins of wholesalers and chain stores are among the factors driving up prices… Apples that cost 35-45 TL at the farm are sold for 100-130 TL on supermarket shelves.
Let me also mention this, and then we’ll wrap up the topic: Turkey is the world’s third-largest apple producer. According to FAO data for 2023, we come in third with 4.6 million tons, after China (49.6 million tons) and the US (5.2 million tons).
Here are the week’s key developments:
Turkey ranks fifth among 38 countries with the highest inequality
According to the “Pension at a Glance” report published by the OECD, Turkey ranks fifth among 38 countries with the highest inequality.
The report emphasizes that disposable income inequality among the population aged 65 and over in Turkey is “very high.” Turkey, the fifth most unequal country, competes in this area with countries such as Mexico, Chile, and Costa Rica. The OECD states that pensions in Turkey are below the minimum cost of living and that pensions increased due to high inflation are insufficient in subsequent months.
The Global Retirement Index, prepared by US-based consulting firm Mercer and the CFA Institute, also highlights the poverty experienced by retirees in Turkey. In the index comparing pension income systems, Turkey, which ranked third from last among 37 countries in 2019, ranked fourth from last among 52 countries with 48 points in 2025, despite more countries being added to the index. Peru ranks 8 places above Turkey with 55 points, and Indonesia ranks 3 places above Turkey with 51 points.
Of the more than 16 million retirees in Turkey, 67 percent, or 7 out of 10 retirees, cannot make ends meet without social assistance. Six out of 10 retirees, or 60 percent, are forced to work a second job. Around 8 million retirees are tenants.
According to TÜİK data, the population aged 65 and over in Turkey will exceed 9.5 million in 2025, while its share of the total population will rise from 10.6% to 11.1% in one year.
We are by far the top country among those that cannot consume meat and chicken every other day
Former Chief Economist of the Central Bank, Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara, stated in a post last week that Turkey ranks first among OECD countries where people cannot afford to consume meat, poultry, or fish every other day. Prof. Dr. Kara wrote, “According to Eurostat data, the percentage of people in OECD countries who cannot afford to consume meat, poultry, or fish every other day. We are clearly in first place.”
According to the data shared by Kara, there was an improvement in regular protein consumption in Turkey until 2014, but the picture deteriorated again in the 2018-2022 period. As of 2023, approximately 40% of the population cannot access meat, poultry, or fish every other day.
Kara also wrote, “I look at this data set with sadness. There are many indices: anxiety level, trust, life satisfaction, quality nutrition, perception of bribery, etc. In short, the situation is not good. What struck me most was this: In 2022, the percentage of students who said they went hungry at least one day a month due to lack of money was 18%.”
Budget deficit reached 214.5 billion lira in January
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced the budget implementation results for January. In January, budget revenues were calculated at 1 trillion 421 billion 245 million lira, while expenditures were 1 trillion 635 billion 788 million lira. The budget deficit in January was 214 billion 543 million lira.
Economics writer Çiğdem Toker, evaluating the budget data, wrote, “The state spent 169 million TL on aircraft rentals in January. In one month, 300 million TL went to office building rentals and 725 million TL to passport book expenses.”
Interest payments surpassed health and education expenditures
Meanwhile, interest payments in the budget increased by 180 percent in one year, reaching 456.4 billion TL. While 28 out of every 100 lira spent went toward interest payments, health and education expenditures were left behind.
Interest expenditures, which were 163 billion 18.4 million lira in January 2025, rose to 456 billion 416.2 million lira this year, showing an increase of 180 percent. While interest expenditures accounted for 15 liras of every 100 liras spent in January last year, this year interest expenditures rose to 28 liras of every 100 liras spent.
According to economic classification, interest expenditure again surpassed many other expenditures within the budget. Expenditures of 145.1 billion TL for health services, 218.9 billion TL for education services, and 284.7 billion TL for social security and social assistance in January fell short of interest expenditure.
Taxes weighed on wage earners
While the tax burden fell heavily on wage earners, the share of indirect and withholding taxes increased instead of direct taxes. According to a report by Birgün, income tax, which rose by 71.4 percent annually to reach 338.3 billion TL, consisted of 335.7 billion TL in taxes collected from wage earners. Income tax revenue from wage earners increased by 71.8 percent compared to January of last year. Withholding taxes accounted for 28.4 percent of total tax revenues in January. Withholding taxes accounted for the highest share of tax revenues.
Toker: Bridge sale revenue may slightly exceed January budget deficit
Writing on the T24 news site, Çiğdem Toker commented on the plan to privatize the Bosphorus bridges and highways, stating, “An approach that plans to transfer operating rights for 25 years may well fail to consider the consequences. Just as it has accepted that the city hospitals built under the Build-Operate-Transfer model are based on 25-year contracts. As a result, the initiative to transfer the operating rights of bridges and highways is a political choice that prioritizes capital and will in no way produce public benefit.”
Toker continued: “The first tender for the transfer of operating rights for the Bosphorus Bridge and highways resulted in $5.634 billion in revenue to be paid to the state. This amount corresponds to 246.5 billion TL at today’s exchange rate. In other words, it is slightly more than the budget deficit in January.”
Current account deficit exceeded expectations in 2025; 25.2 billion dollars
Turkey’s current account balance recorded a deficit exceeding $7.3 billion in December, while the annual current account deficit rose to $25.2 billion. According to the Central Bank’s “Balance of Payments Statistics” data for December 2025, the current account recorded a deficit of $7.25 billion. The current account balance, excluding gold and energy, recorded a deficit of $5.59 million. The current account balance recorded a deficit of $25.21 billion in the January-December period. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said, “With the current account deficit remaining at sustainable levels, the declining country risk premium, and the improving country credit rating outlook, our macro-financial stability continues to strengthen.”
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said, “Sustainable levels are being maintained in the current account balance.”
“While there is an 80% increase in income in dollar terms, we are not getting richer, but rather poorer.”
Karar writer İbrahim Kahveci said, “According to the Poverty Line prices announced by Türk-İş, our per capita income has risen from $9,917 to $17,927, but our purchasing power is decreasing.” Kahveci wrote that although per capita income has increased by 80% in dollar terms in four years, poverty has increased even more.
Why? For example, in 2021, per capita income is 75,845 TL and the average annual poverty line is 35,831 TL. So, one person with average income covers their family’s poverty line and has 1.12 times that amount left over. In the third quarter of 2025, per capita income will be 590,841 TL. However, the annual poverty line will rise to 287,885 TL, and after one person covers their family’s poverty line with average income, the remaining money will be 1.05 times more. The point here is this: our purchasing power for food has not increased with per capita income; on the contrary, it has decreased.
Yes, you are seeing correctly. According to the “Poverty Line” prices announced by Türk-İş, our per capita income rises from $9,917 to $17,927, but our purchasing power decreases. Let me repeat: While there is an 80% increase in income in dollar terms, we are not actually getting richer; on the contrary, we are getting poorer. Because in our country, we are experiencing inflation due to price increases in dollar terms rather than a real increase in prosperity.
IMF does not forecast single-digit inflation, 19% in 2027, 15% in subsequent years
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that Turkey’s disinflation program has been successful, saying, “The current policy mix continues to balance disinflation with stable growth,” and announced its inflation, growth, and unemployment forecasts.
The IMF Executive Board completed its 2025 Article IV consultation with Turkey. In a statement from the Fund, it was noted that thanks to strong fiscal consolidation, prudent revenue policies, and a tight monetary policy stance, inflation had fallen from 49.4% annually in September 2024 to 30.9% in December 2025, and stated that “Turkey’s disinflation program has shown success since the 2024 Article IV consultation.”
The statement noted that inflation remains above target and the economy is vulnerable to shocks, emphasizing the need for a tighter macroeconomic policy mix and ambitious structural reforms to make disinflation permanent, further strengthen external buffers, and support inclusive medium-term growth.
The statement also included forecasts for the Turkish economy, reporting that the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027 and 4 percent in 2028-2031. The statement also noted that inflation is expected to decline to 19% next year and then to 15% by 2031, and that the current account deficit is expected to be 1.4% of gross domestic product in the 2026-2028 period and 1.5% in the 2029-2031 period.
MÜSİAD President Özdemir: We are losing our industry
Burhan Özdemir, President of the Independent Industrialists and Businessmen Association (MÜSİAD), stated that pricing is not controlled in Turkey and that work is not based on costs. Noting that there is idle capacity in factories, Özdemir said that if measures are not taken against China’s growing influence in industry, industry will be lost.
Özdemir stated that no institution in Turkey is working on cost-based pricing and made the following comments on the subject: “No one in this country asks what the cost of 1 kilo of ice cream is. It is not normal to drink the same tea for 500 lira in one place and 5 lira in another. There is no such price gap anywhere else in the world. There is no oversight or work being done on this gap. Why aren’t we studying the cost of a plate of rice pilaf?“
”It’s not as if results will be achieved with tight monetary policy, belt-tightening, and tightening financing.“
Referring to the goal of reducing inflation and the policies of the ministries, Özdemir said: ”At this point, it’s not as if results will be achieved with tight monetary policy, belt-tightening, and tightening financing. Because the problems are chronic. Inflation on goods and commodities has fallen to 17 percent. But if you can’t bring down rents and food prices, there’s nothing you can do. We now need to find solutions to structural problems. To reduce inflation, the ministries of Industry, Agriculture, Trade, Treasury, and Finance need to have coordinated policies.”
Expressing his criticism of the production situation in factories, employment, and engineers’ salaries, Özdemir said: “I constantly visit factories all over Turkey. The production lines in factories are empty. Production is being carried out with 100 people where 300 people should be working. With this situation, there is no need to say let’s lay the foundation and build a new factory. We need to create new jobs under state supervision. We have built eight factories to make one cup. Turkey is currently losing its industry. In 1996, industry accounted for 25 percent of GDP, but now it has fallen to 17 percent. We must give special importance to employment in the industrial sector. White-collar engineers earn less than master craftsmen. Society should not treat its intellectuals this way.”
TİM President Gültepe: We are 50-60 percent more expensive than Europe; a coat that costs 6,000 lira costs 17,000 lira here
Mustafa Gültepe, President of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM), stated that Turkey is now an expensive country. Gültepe said, “All my production goes abroad. And I see that we have become 50-60% more expensive. I also bought a coat from a brand. I looked at the brand’s price in Turkey and saw that it was 20-30% cheaper. A friend of mine also saw that a product he bought for 6,000 lira costs 17,000 lira here.”
Gültepe, who stated that Turkey has become an expensive country, said, “As you know, I am a ready-to-wear clothing manufacturer. All of my production goes abroad. And I see that we have become 50-60% more expensive. In the past, it was around 20%. We never imagined that England, Germany, France, and Italy would be cheaper than Turkey, but it happened. People get on a plane, go shopping, get a free plane ticket, and get to travel. I bought a jacket from a brand. I looked at the price of the brand in Turkey and saw that it was 20-30 percent cheaper. A friend of mine saw that a product he bought for 6,000 lira was 17,000 lira here.”
Eğilmez criticizes the business world for its economic policy: You lost your rights
Economist Mahfi Eğilmez wrote that the business world supported the interest rate cuts initiated in 2021 when inflation was rising, and that today’s criticism is inconsistent. Sharing on his social media account, Eğilmez said, “While we were shouting, ‘Don’t do it, this is wrong, you will ruin the economy,’ most business people were applauding what was being done. I’m sorry, but you lost the right to criticize what is being done now back then.”
Eğilmez’s post came after recent criticisms by MÜSİAD and TİM regarding high inflation, rising costs, and price imbalances.
Altaylı: If there is an election, Şimşek will leave, and the money taps will open
Journalist Fatih Altaylı, who was detained for six months on charges of “threatening the president” and released in late 2025, wrote his first article on his website www.fatihaltayli.com.tr on February 16, assessing the possibility of early elections. “The AK Party will not go to elections while Mehmet Şimşek is sitting in the ministerial chair responsible for the economy.”
Altaylı stated, “If there is to be an election, at least six months beforehand, Mehmet Şimşek will request to be relieved of his duties, and the minister who replaces him—whose name is irrelevant—will open the taps, raise prices, approve all necessary and unnecessary investments, and shift to an election economy.”
BES-AR: Poverty line exceeds 105,000 Turkish lira
According to BES-AR’s February 2026 data, the hunger line for a family of four civil servants rose to 43,415 Turkish lira, while the poverty line rose to 105,273 Turkish lira. According to BES-AR data, the minimum wage remained 54% below the poverty line.
The Office Workers’ Union Research Center (BES-AR) shared its February 2026 poverty and hunger line data with the public. According to the statement, the monthly expenditure required for a family of four civil servants to eat a healthy and balanced diet was calculated at 43,415 TL. The poverty line, which consists of the total of essential expenses such as food, clothing, rent, electricity, water, fuel, transportation, education, and health, was determined to be 105,273 TL.
The BES-AR statement emphasized that the minimum wage of 28,075 lira applied in 2026 was 54.64 percent below the poverty line of 43,415 lira.
TÜİK: Unemployment rate fell by 0.2 points to 8.2 percent
According to TÜİK’s unemployment figures for the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of unemployed people decreased by 58,000 compared to the previous quarter to 2,913,000. The unemployment rate stood at 8.2 percent.
According to seasonally adjusted data, the number of unemployed people aged 15 and over decreased by 58,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, falling to 2,913,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 points to 8.2 percent. The unemployment rate was estimated at 6.7 percent for men and 11.1 percent for women.
The labor force increased by 78,000 people during the period in question, reaching 35,599,000 people. The labor force participation rate was calculated at 53.5 percent, an increase of 0.1 points. The labor force participation rate was 71.5 percent for men and 35.9 percent for women.
The unemployment rate among young people aged 15-24 decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, falling to 14.9%. The unemployment rate in this age group was estimated at 11.8% for men and 20.7% for women.
6.5 million young people are neither in education nor employment, 30% of university graduates under the age of 24 are unemployed
Economist Alaattin Aktaş wrote that, as of the last quarter of 2025, 6.5 million of the 24.1 million people in the 15-34 age group were neither continuing their education nor working.
Citing TÜİK data, Aktaş reported that 30% of university graduates under the age of 24 were unemployed in the last quarter of 2025 and said in his article:”University is completed on average around the age of 22, and the difficulty of finding a job immediately is obvious, but considering that two years have passed since graduation, this rate is not low at all. There are 378,000 unemployed university graduates under the age of 24. Of these young people, 111,000 are men and 267,000 are women. The unemployment rate is 23.6 percent for men and 33.8 percent for women.Now, when people say, “So many young people are neither in education nor employment,” or “30 percent of university graduates are unemployed,” there is a group that immediately jumps in and offers what they think is a very easy solution. What they say hardly ever changes:“There are plenty of jobs in Turkey for those who want to work; young people are just picky.” How easy is that? Regardless of their education, young people should just do any job! So many people solve the problem by saying “Young people are picky” without thinking about why those young people spent years getting an education, why they went to university…”
In the last quarter of 2025, 4 million 890 thousand people gave up looking for work
According to DİSK-AR’s calculations, in the last quarter of 2025, the number of unemployed people under the broad definition was 11 million 834 thousand, while 4 million 890 thousand people gave up looking for work.
The number of people who had lost hope of finding a job increased by 121,000 compared to the previous quarter, rising to 2,616,000. The number of people who were able to start work but were not looking for a job decreased by 189,000, falling to 2,274,000. Over the past four years, the number of people who have lost hope of finding a job has increased by 59 percent, while the number of people who are able to work but are not looking for a job has increased by 74 percent. Thus, according to official data, 4.89 million people have either lost hope of finding a job or have stopped looking for one.
“If the exchange rate policy explodes tomorrow, all these companies will raise the ‘technical bankruptcy’ flag.”
Nefes writer Murat Muratoğlu stated that the private sector’s external debt had risen to $219.7 billion, saying, “If the exchange rate policy explodes tomorrow, if the artificial pressure on the dollar is lifted, all these companies will raise the ‘technical bankruptcy’ flag.”
“So, why did we borrow so much money? Did we build factories? Did we produce technology? Did we build a new production line? No, where are those old holidays…“ Muratoğlu said in his article:
”According to the economic order established, the dollar was kept cheap, and TL interest rates were skyrocketed… Borrow dollars from abroad at 9% interest, convert them to Turkish Lira. Park them in TL at 42% interest domestically. Earn without producing.
Let’s do the math again, just to be sure… Let’s say you’re a big company. You went and borrowed $100 million from abroad. The interest rate is 9%… Let’s assume that the exchange rate will increase by 15% at the end of the year… In fact, according to the announced targets, it will be even more… The cost of this loan to you will be 25.3% per year. If you break that same money and put it in a deposit in Turkey, what do you get? Between 40 and 44 percent… What’s the average difference? 16.65 percent! So how many factories, how many industrial facilities, how many production lines in Turkey today leave a net 16 percent dollar-based profit?
A ticking time bomb, if that artificial pressure on the dollar is lifted…
Companies are borrowing billions of dollars from abroad, but they are using this money not to develop themselves, but to pay off old debts and hoard money in their bank accounts “just in case,” or even to make money from money.
Do you know what this means? A ticking time bomb! If the exchange rate policy explodes tomorrow, if that artificial pressure on the dollar is lifted, all these companies will raise the “technical bankruptcy” flag.
The era of “Let the dollar stay in the 40-50 band, let’s do arbitrage” is actually an illusion… And banks also pay the price for this illusion…”
The real sector’s exchange rate risk has reached $187 billion
The foreign currency exchange rate risk carried by the real sector has reached $187 billion. According to experts, this figure is a product of the macroeconomic environment shaped by high real interest rates, real TL appreciation, and Turkish Lira credit constraints.
This position, which appears relatively balanced in the short term, is turning into cumulative fragility in the long term as foreign currency liabilities systematically exceed assets; a possible exchange rate shock or sudden foreign currency credit crunch could elevate this risk to a systemic level.
Per capita debt exceeded 135,000 lira, while non-performing loans reached 740 billion lira
Citizens’ debts have multiplied in an environment of high interest rates and inflation. Over the past year, per capita debt increased by 42.5 percent to exceed 135,000 lira, while non-performing loans reached 740 billion lira. According to a report by Nisanur Yıldırım in Nefes newspaper, the total cash credit volume will reach 24 trillion 204 billion TL in 2025, while loans to be liquidated reached 740 billion TL. Over the past year, there has been a 99 percent increase in loans to be liquidated.
The individual credit debt balance reached 5 trillion 914 billion TL, a 49 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Credit cards accounted for the largest share of individual loans, with 2 trillion 918 billion TL. Thus, credit cards accounted for half of citizens’ debts.
Credit cards were followed by consumer loans with 1 trillion 467 billion TL. The number of individuals with personal loan debt increased by 1.8 million over the past year, reaching 43.6 million people. The average debt per person rose from 95,069 TL to 135,500 TL over the past year, an increase of 42.5%. The debt per person is equivalent to 4.8 minimum wages.
Annual increase in construction output at its lowest in 8 months
According to TÜİK data, construction output increased by 1% in December 2025 and 7.5% annually. The annual increase in construction output was the lowest since April 2025. Accordingly, construction output increased by 7.5% compared to the same month last year.
When evaluated by sub-sector, in December 2025, the building construction sector index increased by 8.4% annually, while the non-building construction sector index rose by 5.8% and the private construction activities sector index increased by 5.5%.
On a monthly basis, construction output recorded a 1.0 percent increase. During the same period, the building construction sector index rose 1.3 percent compared to the previous month, the non-building construction sector index rose 0.9 percent, while the private construction activities sector index declined 0.4 percent.
TÜİK announced: Housing sales declined in January
According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), first-hand housing sales decreased by 2.1% to 34,069, while second-hand sales declined by 5.9% to 77,411. The number of first-hand housing sales across Turkey decreased by 2.1% in January compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching 34,069. Second-hand home sales decreased by 5.9 percent in January compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching 77,411. First-hand home sales accounted for 30.6 percent of total home sales, while second-hand home sales accounted for 69.4 percent.
Home prices rose in January but declined in real terms
According to Central Bank data, the Housing Price Index rose 3.7% monthly in January but declined 2.3% annually in real terms. New tenant rents recorded a limited real increase above inflation. The Housing Price Index (HPI) rose 3.7% compared to the previous month in January 2026, reaching 211.8. The index showed a nominal increase of 27.7% on an annual basis, while declining by 2.3% in real terms during the same period. Thus, there was a limited decline in housing prices relative to inflation.
In January, housing prices increased by 3.1% in Istanbul, 3.5% in Ankara, and 3.7% in Izmir. On an annual basis, the rates of increase were recorded as 28.7 percent in Istanbul, 31.7 percent in Ankara, and 29.0 percent in Izmir.
Rents increased by 3.5 percent in January
The New Tenant Rent Index (YKKE) rose by 3.5 percent monthly in January. On an annual basis, the nominal increase was 34.2%, while the real increase was calculated as 2.7%. Thus, there was a limited increase in new tenant rents above inflation. In the three major cities, new tenant rents increased by 3.9% in Istanbul, 3.5% in Ankara, and 4.7% in Izmir in January. The annual increase rates were recorded as 38.1 percent in Istanbul, 36.9 percent in Ankara, and 38.5 percent in Izmir.
The region with the highest annual increase in new tenant rents was Izmir with 38.5 percent, while the lowest increase was 19.5 percent in the Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, and Osmaniye region.
Consumer confidence rose in February
The consumer confidence index, calculated from the results of the consumer trend survey conducted in collaboration with TÜİK and the Central Bank, rose by 2.3% in February to 85.7, up from 83.7 in January. The consumer confidence index rose in February. The index, which was 83.7 in January, increased by 2.3% in February to 85.7. Thus, the highest level of consumer confidence in two months was observed.
The current household financial situation index rose from 68.2 to 71.3. The monthly increase was recorded at 4.6%. Expectations for the household financial situation over the next 12 months also improved. The index, which was 83.3 in January, rose to 86.8 in February.
Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months remained flat. The index fell from 81.5 to 81.4, showing a 0.1 percent decline. The index for the intention to spend on durable consumer goods rose from 101.9 to 103.2. The monthly increase was 1.3 percent.
TEPAV: Decline in 39 sectors, 574,000 jobs lost in four months
According to the November 2025 Employment Monitoring Bulletin of the Turkish Economic Policy Research Foundation (TEPAV), based on Social Security Institution (SGK) data, the total number of insured employees decreased by approximately 80,000 in one month. While there were sharp losses in clothing and textiles, the strongest employment growth was seen in building construction.
In November, the number of insured salaried workers fell in 39 of 88 sub-sectors on an annual basis. The largest employment loss was in clothing manufacturing, with 86,513 people. The number of workers in this sector shrank by 13.2 percent annually.
In November, the total number of insured employees, including those paying Social Security Support Premiums (SGDP), decreased by 79,782 compared to the previous month, falling to 25,936,000. Thus, the total loss in registered employment over the last four months was 574,000.
The number of insured persons in the tradesmen and farmers group increased by 5.7% annually, while the number of tradesmen decreased by 3.4%. The number of insured employees in the public sector increased by 0.4% (14,215) on an annual basis, with no significant change seen on a monthly basis.
How did 200 TL become worthless? 60 liters of gasoline evaporated in 17 years
CHP Deputy Chairman Burhanettin Bulut explained the loss of purchasing power of the 200 TL banknote over 17 years with examples. According to him, 200 TL, which was equivalent to $131 when it entered circulation in 2009, can now only buy $4.57. While 200 TL could buy 3 quarter gold coins 17 years ago, today it can only buy 0.016 quarter gold coins.
Bulut’s statements are as follows: “The 200 TL, which was equivalent to $131 when it entered circulation in 2009, can only buy $4.57 today.
This dramatic decline clearly demonstrates the Turkish lira’s loss of value against foreign currencies and the impact of high inflation. While 200 TL could buy 3 quarter gold coins 17 years ago, today it can only buy 0.016 quarter gold coins.
With 200 TL, which could buy 63.5 liters of gasoline in 2009, it is now impossible to fill up a car’s tank. Today, the largest banknote can only buy 3.44 liters of gasoline at a gas station.
With 200 TL, which could buy 15 kilograms of beef or 11.7 kilograms of minced meat in 2009, you can now only buy meat by the gram at butcher shops. When you go to the market with 200 TL, you can only put 270 grams of white cheese in your basket today, compared to 18.3 kilograms in 2009. The purchasing power of 200 TL has declined from 500 loaves of bread to 13.3 loaves over 17 years.
ING: Is the pullback in gold a buying opportunity?
Gold prices fluctuated between $4,850 and $5,050 per ounce last week. As of the morning of February 20, it was trading at $5,024 per ounce, with a weekly loss of 0.34%.
ING Bank stated that it views the recent decline in gold prices as a corrective pause rather than the beginning of a deep downturn. Noting that the short-term movements of the precious metal remain highly sensitive to US dollar fluctuations and global risk appetite, ING commented, “However, with liquidity returning to normal in Asian markets and macroeconomic uncertainties persisting, underlying demand for gold is expected to strengthen. Any potential new declines will be met with renewed buying interest.”
On the other hand, JP Morgan stated that there is a reasonable argument that gold’s rise will not continue, but that this is incorrect. The bank noted that geopolitical volatility has been a factor behind gold’s rise of over 170% in the last five years.
JP Morgan predicted that investor demand and central bank purchases will remain strong in 2026, with central bank demand averaging 585 tons per quarter in 2026.
Trump is putting serious pressure on Cuba, Havana has taken tough measures
Mexico has halted oil shipments to the Havana government following Trump’s move to impose tariffs on goods imported from countries that sell or supply oil to Cuba. After Venezuela, Mexico’s halting of shipments spells major trouble… Tourism revenues and tourist numbers are rapidly declining. Fuel shortages have begun. The people say, “The apocalypse is coming.” Oil shipments have been suspended since December, and there are major power outages and a collapsed transportation system… The regime is demanding new sacrifices and “creativity” from the exhausted people.
Fidel Castro, as a survival strategy after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s: Cuba, which managed to stay afloat with measures such as strict rationing, suspension of public transport, and temporary closure of schools and universities, is teetering on the brink of its worst crisis in recent history thirty years later, and harsh measures are back on the agenda.
Emergency measures have been taken to reduce energy consumption. Fuel sales are being restricted, “essential administrative activities” will be carried out from Monday to Thursday to save resources, trains will run every eight days, school hours will be reduced, and universities will switch to a hybrid model.
Who wins and who loses when trade policies change?
A report published last month by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) titled “Global Trade Update: Who Wins When Trade Policies Change?” emphasizes that the new rules are reshaping global export competition and that changes in trade policies could alter the winners and losers in global markets.
According to the report, the competitive landscape is being reshaped, particularly due to new tariffs imposed by the US, with developed economies benefiting while developing countries lose out. Developed countries are strengthening their competitive position with lower tariff increases, boosting their tariff advantages in the US market by approximately 3.5 percentage points.
Tech giants in the race to invest in artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is driving technology companies’ investments to unprecedented levels with a massive leap. The cumulative investments of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle will approach a total of $700 billion by 2026. When Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Broadcom are added to this, nine US tech giants will invest approximately $1 trillion by 2026, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence.
Alphabet announced that it will invest between $175 billion and $185 billion in 2026. This figure is approximately double the 2025 figure. Alphabet’s total investment for the 2022-2026 period ($388 billion) is 2.5 times its cumulative investment over the previous 20 years ($167 billion). Not only Alphabet, but Amazon has also announced that it will invest $200 billion in 2026. In total, the four largest hyperscale companies (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta) are expected to invest $600 billion in 2026, a 50% increase over last year.
Musk merged his two companies to create a new giant
Elon Musk merged SpaceX with the artificial intelligence venture xAI. This further intertwines Musk’s companies and creates the world’s most valuable private company. Musk has created a giant company worth $1.25 trillion in the rocket and artificial intelligence fields while carrying out the largest private company merger in history. This deal provides xAI with a financial lifeline while also enabling Musk to build data centers in space. The merged company is expected to go public in June.
US agrees with Bangladesh, set to grow further in textiles
The US has reduced customs duties to 19% in its trade agreement with Bangladesh. In addition, some textile and clothing products manufactured in Bangladesh using materials produced in the US will be subject to zero customs duties. Bangladesh exported a total of $7.34 billion to the US, its largest market for ready-made garment exports, in 2024. Bangladesh’s ready-made garment sector, valued at $38.48 billion in 2024, accounted for more than 80% of total export revenues and employs approximately 4 million workers.
Airbus aims for record aircraft deliveries in 2026
The European aircraft manufacturer plans to deliver 870 aircraft this year. This figure will exceed the previous record of 863 aircraft in 2019. Le Monde newspaper noted that this figure could have been higher if the company had not had problems with its engine supplier Pratt & Whitney.
Lagarde may leave the European Central Bank
It is reported that European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde may leave before her term ends. According to a report by the Financial Times, it is expected that European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will step down before her eight-year term ends in October 2027. It is suggested that this early departure is intended to allow French President Emmanuel Macron to have a say in who will head the institution ahead of the 2027 French presidential elections.
Other highlights of the week are as follows:
- According to the latest report by ING Group, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) may continue its gradual interest rate reduction process despite inflationary pressures. The report stated that a 100 basis point reduction was on the table at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in March.
- International direct investment (IDI) in Turkey reached $13.1 billion in 2025, up 12.2% from the previous year. The Presidential Investment and Finance Office announced Turkey’s IDI performance for 2025 along with the December balance of payments data. Last year, among the countries with the highest FDI in Turkey, the Netherlands ranked first with $2.863 billion, Luxembourg ranked second with $1.164 billion, and Kazakhstan ranked third with $1.138 billion.
- Emlak Konut GYO launched its ‘Welcome Home Campaign’ for 2026. The interest-free campaign, valid from February 19 to March 18, offers three different payment models. The sales process will be carried out according to a predetermined schedule during the campaign period. The deadline for those wishing to benefit from the campaign is March 18, 2026.
- It was reported that the Revenue Administration (GİB) sent notifications to tens of thousands of people who bought or sold real estate in the last five years and were found to have declared the sale price below its actual value in the land registry. As the legal deadline approaches, it was stated that those who do not apply today may lose their right to a discount and face a 100% tax penalty.
- Apple acquired Kuzu, a Canada-based startup founded by Turkish entrepreneurs in 2023 that develops graphical database technologies, in October 2025. While the purchase price was not disclosed, the transaction was reported to the European Union. The website of the company, founded by Turkish entrepreneurs Ardan Araç and Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serdar Salihoğlu, was shut down, and its GitHub repository was archived.
- Restaurants with Michelin stars, one of the world’s most prestigious gastronomy awards, could no longer withstand the rising costs. Twelve iconic Michelin-starred restaurants in the UK, from London to Manchester, decided to close due to economic pressures.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) has imposed an administrative fine of approximately €12.2 million on JPMorgan’s European subsidiary for misreporting its capital requirements. The ECB stated that JPMorgan’s European subsidiary reported its risk-weighted assets below the legal limits between 2019 and 2024.